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- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
- Background Note
Brief Note on How America Votes and U.S. Election Structural Issues (2024)
By: Robert F. White
This note describes how American votes, and explores several structural issues to U.S. elections. View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts
By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez and Aila M. Matanock
Civil conflicts typically end with negotiated settlements, but many settlements fail, often during the implementation stage when average citizens have increasing influence. Citizens sometimes evaluate peace agreements by voting on referendums or the negotiating... View Details
Keywords: Civil Unrest; Peace Process; Political Leadership; Peace; Politics; Policy Change; Policy; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Governance; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Negotiation; Negotiation Participants; Public Relations Industry; Colombia; Latin America; South America
- 2024
- Working Paper
Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies
By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
- August 2024
- Background Note
Brief Note on Congressional and Down-Ballot Races (2024)
By: Robert F. White
This brief note explains the other elections that occur in the United States at the same time as the presidential election. View Details
- August 2024
- Background Note
Brief Note on the U.S. Presidential Electoral Process (2024)
By: Robert F. White
A note describing the history and mechanics of the United States' presidential election system, the electoral college. View Details
- May 2024
- Article
Refugees Are Hosted in Highly Vulnerable Communities
By: C. Austin Davis, Paula Lopez-Peña, A. Mushfiq Mobarak and Jaya Y. Wen
Low- and middle-income nations host 76 percent of the world's refugees. This study uses original data to explore within-country spatial variability in refugee-hosting responsibilities. We find that hosting responsibilities for the displaced Rohingya people in... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Fading Light of Democratic Capitalism: How Pervasive Cronyism and Restricted Suffrage Are Destroying Democratic Capitalism as a National Ideal…and What to Do about It
What are we to do about declining public trust and confidence in democratic capitalism, which many citizens consider a cornerstone of our national ideology and identity? While the answer is not entirely clear, I argue in this essay that any effort aimed at restoring... View Details
- March 2024
- Case
Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil
The case gives readers an overview of key factors of doing business in Brazil, including Brazil’s economic transformation since its colonial years until 2023, when leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in for his third term, after the most polarized... View Details
- March 2024
- Article
The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?
By: Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini
We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing... View Details
- 2024
- Chapter
The U.S. Secession Crisis as a Breakdown of Democracy
By: Dean Grodzins and David Moss
This chapter examines the U.S. secession crisis of 1860–1861 as a case of democratic breakdown. From December 1860 to early June 1861, eleven of the fifteen slaveholding states in the U.S. South declared secession from the Union. The trigger for the crisis was Abraham... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy
By: Simone Cremaschi, Paula Rettl, Marco Cappelluti and Catherine E. De Vries
Electoral support for far-right parties is often linked to geographies of discontent.
We argue that public service deprivation, defined as reduced access to public services
at the local level, plays an important role in explaining these patterns. By exploiting
an... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic
By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using
experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we
study how leader... View Details
Keywords: Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
- September 2023 (Revised December 2023)
- Case
Twiddy & Company: Trust in a Chaotic Environment
By: Sandra J. Sucher, Shalene Gupta and Tom Quinn
Twiddy & Company, known for Southern hospitality rooted in personal interactions, needed to adjust to contactless remote customer service as fear of the contagious virus prevented person-to-person contact. Local elected officials, in a bid to stop tourists from... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms
By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
The emergence of green constituencies enables climate action. Conventional wisdom holds
that first-hand experience with natural disasters helps build green coalitions by increasing
the salience of the costs of environmental degradation. Focusing on fires in Brazil,... View Details
Keywords: Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
- 2024
- Working Paper
Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries
By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and
candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine
the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections
By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its... View Details
- June 2023
- Case
The Business of Campaigns
By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
In 2022, the U.S. Congress examined the Democracy Is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections (DISCLOSE) Act, the latest in a long series of campaign finance reforms. According to its authors, the law would be the “most consequential overhaul of federal... View Details
- 2023
- Chapter
Economic Globalization and Populism in Latin America and Beyond
By: Paula Rettl
Both populism and economic globalization have been on the rise in the last decades, motivating increasing scholarly attention to the phenomena and their relationship (see Rodrik 2021 for a recent review). However, the relationship between populism and economic... View Details