Publications

November 2021
Article

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative... View Details

Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods

January 2024
Article

Population Interference in Panel Experiments

By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov

The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details

Keywords: Outcome or Result; Research; Situation or Environment

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2021
Working Paper

Population Interference in Panel Experiments

By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse

The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details

Keywords: Finite Population; Potential Outcomes; Dynamic Causal Effects; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

2022
Working Paper

A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure

By: Jesse M. Shapiro and Liyang Sun

Linear panel models featuring unit and time fixed effects appear in many areas of empirical economics. An active literature studies the interpretation of the ordinary least squares estimator of the model, commonly called the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator, in... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Mathematical Methods

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

December 2010
Article

Happiness Adaptation to Income and to Status in an Individual Panel

By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch

We study adaptation to income and to status using individual panel data on the happiness of 7,812 people living in Germany from 1984 to 2000. Specifically, we estimate a "happiness equation" defined over several lags of income and status and compare the long-run... View Details

Keywords: Wages; Status and Position; Happiness; Income; Change; Germany

July 2005
Article

The Consequences of Labor Market Flexibility: Panel Evidence Based on Survey Data

By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch

We introduce a new data set on hiring and firing restrictions for 21 OECD countries for the period 1984 –1990. The data are based on surveys of business people in the countries covered, so the indices we use are subjective in nature. Controlling for country and time... View Details

Keywords: Job Security Provisions; Subjective Data; Unemployment; Employment; Labor; Markets; Data and Data Sets

29 Sep 2008
Research & Ideas

Financial Crisis Caution Urged by Faculty Panel

Harvard Business School faculty members, looking at the U.S. financial crisis from a variety of disciplines, urged caution and prudent analysis in a recent panel discussion. The discussion titled "Turmoil on the Street: Fathoming the... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Financial Services

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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February 2017
Article

How Much Is a Win Worth? An Application to Intercollegiate Athletics

By: Doug J. Chung

Intercollegiate athletics in the United States have become a multibillion-dollar industry over the past several decades. In this study, we investigate the short- and long-term direct monetary effects of operating a winning athletics program for an academic institution... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Panel Data; Heterogeneity; Instrumental Variables; Intercollegiate Athletics; Educational Finance; Entertainment Marketing; Higher Education; Marketing; Sports; Revenue; Education Industry; United States

September–October 2013
Article

The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics

By: Doug J. Chung

I measure the spillover effect of intercollegiate athletics on the quantity and quality of applicants to institutions of higher education in the United States, popularly known as the "Flutie Effect." I treat athletic success as a stock of goodwill that decays over... View Details

Keywords: Choice Modeling; Entertainment Marketing; Heterogeneity; Panel Data; Structural Modeling; Rights; Analytics and Data Science; Higher Education; Ethics; Consumer Behavior; Advertising; Sports; Advertising Industry; Education Industry

SSRN

2013
Dissertation

Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta

Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details

Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups

Article

The Importance of Being Causal

By: Iavor I Bojinov, Albert Chen and Min Liu

Causal inference is the study of how actions, interventions, or treatments affect outcomes of interest. The methods that have received the lion’s share of attention in the data science literature for establishing causation are variations of randomized experiments.... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Observational Studies; Cross-sectional Studies; Panel Studies; Interrupted Time-series; Instrumental Variables

January 2011
Article

Building a Better America—One Wealth Quintile at a Time

By: Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely

Disagreements about the optimal level of wealth inequality underlie policy debates ranging from taxation to welfare. We attempt to insert the desires of "regular" Americans into these debates, by asking a nationally representative online panel to estimate the current... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Policy; Perspective; Wealth; Equality and Inequality; Income; Demography; Debates; Welfare; Diversity; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; United States

December 2019
Article

Invest in Information or Wing It? A Model of Dynamic Pricing with Seller Learning

By: Guofang Huang, Hong Luo and Jing Xia

Pricing idiosyncratic products is often challenging because the seller, ex ante, lacks information about the demand for individual items. This paper develops a model of dynamic pricing for idiosyncratic products that features the optimal stopping structure and a seller... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Pricing; Idiosyncratic Products; Item-specific Demand; Demand Uncertainty; Active Seller Learning; The Value Of Information; Price; Information; Value; Learning

Article

How Did the Great Recession Affect Charitable Giving?

By: Arthur C. Brooks

A great deal of research has studied the effects of income and tax changes on charitable giving. However, little work has focused on how these relationships were affected by the Great Recession. This article estimates the tax and income effects using the 2009 Panel... View Details

Keywords: Charitable Giving; Great Recession; Philanthropy; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Financial Crisis; Taxation; Policy

Article

The Relationship Between Workplace Stressors and Mortality and Health Costs in the United States

By: Joel Goh, Jeffrey Pfeffer and Stefanos A. Zenios

Even though epidemiological evidence links specific workplace stressors to health outcomes, the aggregate contribution of these factors to overall mortality and health spending in the United States is not known. In this paper, we build a model to estimate the excess... View Details

Keywords: Occupational Health; Health Costs; Mortality; Applied Optimization; Health

January 2021
Article

Commuting and Innovation: Are Closer Inventors More Productive?

By: Hongyu Xiao, Andy Wu and Jaeho Kim

We estimate the causal effect of workplace–home commuting distance on inventor productivity. We construct a novel panel of U.S. inventors with precisely measured workplace–home distances and inventor-level productivity. Our identification strategy exploits firm office... View Details

Keywords: Commuting; Proximity; Inventors; Innovation; Relocation; Telecommuting; Geographic Location; Technological Innovation; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; United States