Publications

2023
Working Paper

Much Ado About Nothing? Overreaction to Random Regulatory Audits

By: Samuel Antill and Joseph Kalmenovitz

Regulators often audit firms to detect non-compliance. Exploiting a natural experiment in the lobbying industry, we show that firms overreact to audits and this response distorts prices and reduces welfare. Each year, federal regulators audit a random sample of... View Details

Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Price

SSRN

Article

A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets

Keywords: Theory; Assets; Markets

17 Dec 2018
News

J&J is a company of the 'highest integrity.' Investors overreact to asbestos report

07 Apr 2003
What Do You Think?

Should Global Business Initiatives Be Devalued?

should be devalued. On the one hand, one might argue that such discussions are an overreaction to current events, that nations have become so interdependent and multinational business organizations so vital to the world's economy that... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

25 Jan 2016
News

From Pepsi to Target: Industry leaders worth betting on

2021
Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit

Research Summary

Information, Coordination and the Industrialisation of Countries (with Markus Reisinger)

The industrialization process of a country is often plagued by a failure to coordinate firms' investment decisions. Using the Global Games approach we can solve this coordination problem and eliminate the problem of multiple equilibria. We show how appropriate... View Details

December 2017 (Revised May 2018)
Case

Amazon Buys Whole Foods

By: José B. Alvarez, David Lane and Joni Coughlin

The June 2017 news that e-commerce giant Amazon was paying $13.7 billion for organic supermarket chain Whole Foods precipitated a broad sell-off in the shares of grocery retailers and suppliers. Behind the precipitous declines lay recognition that Amazon’s bold move... View Details

Keywords: Amazon; Whole Foods; Grocery; Grocery Delivery; Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; Business Models; Food Value Chain; Agribusiness; Mergers and Acquisitions; Operations; Competitive Strategy; E-commerce; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Retail Industry; Web Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

Educators

Purchase

September 2018
Article

Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao

We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing

October 1992 (Revised August 2005)
Background Note

Estate Freeze

By: Henry B. Reiling

The so called estate freeze is a classic estate planning and recapitalization practice. It seeks to reconcile the multiple human and business considerations associated with transferring operating control and the future increases in the value of a family dominated... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Laws and Statutes; Financial Services Industry; United States

Educators

Purchase

December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

2023
Working Paper

How People Use Statistics

By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance

Purchase

05 Dec 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, December 5, 2017

projects in the wake of this type of information. I also find evidence that firms overreact to failure news from closely related competitor projects. Finally, I investigate project- and firm-level characteristics that drive persistent... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

August 2021
Article

Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright

Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes... View Details

Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates