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- All HBS Web
(6,839)
- People (19)
- News (1,414)
- Research (4,051)
- Events (36)
- Multimedia (39)
- Faculty Publications (2,231)
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- August 2014
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)
By: John Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket.
These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
- May 2017
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2017)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
- July 2019
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)." Harvard Business School Case 520-012, July 2019.
- August 2018
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)
By: John Gourville
One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- 22 May 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products
Keywords: by Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Joel Waldfogel
- Summer 2018
- Article
Scale versus Scope in the Diffusion of New Technology: Evidence from the Farm Tractor
By: Daniel P. Gross
Although tractors are now used in nearly every agricultural field operation and in the production of nearly all crops, they first developed with much more limited application. Early diffusion was accordingly rapid in these narrower applications but limited in scope... View Details
Keywords: Technology Diffusion; Spatial Technology Diffusion; Farm Tractors; R＆D; General-purpose Technologies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Transportation; Research and Development; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States
Gross, Daniel P. "Scale versus Scope in the Diffusion of New Technology: Evidence from the Farm Tractor." RAND Journal of Economics 49, no. 2 (Summer 2018): 427–452.
- 2016
- Book
Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
This book bridges the gap between what academics know, and what innovation stakeholders—from managers, to investors, to analysts, to consumers—need to know about how new products and services are expected to perform in the marketplace. The book develops a compelling... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Technology Diffusion; New Products; Customer Lifetime Value; Monetization Strategy; Social Influence; Innovation Adoption; Forecasting Demand; Commercialization; Marketing Strategy; Practice; Customer Value and Value Chain; Research; Innovation and Management; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development
Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. Innovation Equity: Assessing and Managing the Monetary Value of New Products and Services. University of Chicago Press, 2016.
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Diffusion of New Technologies
By: Aakash Kalyani, Marcela Carvalho, Nicholas Bloom, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun
We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents,
job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs
relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically... View Details
Keywords: Technology; Geography; Innovation; R＆D; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Employment; Geographic Location
Kalyani, Aakash, Marcela Carvalho, Nicholas Bloom, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun. "The Diffusion of New Technologies." Quarterly Journal of Economics (forthcoming). (Earlier version distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 28999 and Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 21-114. Related discussion published as “How Disruptive Technologies Diffuse,” VoxEU, 2021.)
- April 2010 (Revised November 2011)
- Case
Soren Chemical: Why Is the New Swimming Pool Product Sinking?
By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Sunru Yong
Topics include distribution channels, pricing, and new product marketing. Jen Moritz, the marketing manager for Soren Chemical Co. is struggling with the poor sales performance of Coracle, a new clarifier for residential swimming pools. The performance is puzzling... View Details
Keywords: Marketing Mix; New Product Marketing; Pricing; Branding; Price; Marketing Strategy; Marketing Channels; Product Launch; Brands and Branding; Communication Strategy; Chemical Industry
Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Sunru Yong. "Soren Chemical: Why Is the New Swimming Pool Product Sinking?" Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-188, April 2010. (Revised November 2011.)
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
- 2007
- Working Paper
The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products
By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Victor Calanog
Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, and Victor Calanog. "The Speed of New Ideas: Trust, Institutions and the Diffusion of New Products." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-063, April 2007.
- November 2001 (Revised September 2002)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion." Harvard Business School Case 502-045, November 2001. (Revised September 2002.)
- June 2023
- Article
How New Ideas Diffuse in Science
By: Mengjie Cheng, Daniel Scott Smith, Xiang Ren, Hancheng Cao, Sanne Smith and Daniel A. McFarland
What conditions help new ideas spread? Can knowledge entrepreneurs’ position and develop new ideas in ways that help them take off? Most innovation research focuses on products and their reference. That focus ignores the ideas themselves and the broader ideational... View Details
Keywords: Innovation Adoption; Natural Language Processing; Knowledge; Science; Innovation and Invention; Knowledge Sharing; Analytics and Data Science
Cheng, Mengjie, Daniel Scott Smith, Xiang Ren, Hancheng Cao, Sanne Smith, and Daniel A. McFarland. "How New Ideas Diffuse in Science." American Sociological Review 88, no. 3 (June 2023): 522–561.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Responding Strategically to Competitors' Failures: Evidence from Medical Device Recalls & New Product Submissions
By: George P. Ball, Jeffrey T. Macher and Ariel Dora Stern
Medical device firms operate at the frontiers of innovation. When functioning properly, innovative medical devices can prolong and improve lives; when malfunctioning, the same devices may harm patients and lead to product recalls. Product recalls create significant... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Recalls; Product Failures; Medical Devices; FDA; Health Care; Product Development; Product; Failure; Competition; Opportunities; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
Ball, George P., Jeffrey T. Macher, and Ariel Dora Stern. "Responding Strategically to Competitors' Failures: Evidence from Medical Device Recalls & New Product Submissions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-028, September 2018. (Revised March 2022.)
- January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)
One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
- April 2010 (Revised November 2011)
- Teaching Note
Soren Chemical: Why is the New Swimming Pool Product Sinking (Brief Case)
By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Sunru Yong
Teaching Note for 4190 View Details
- 18 Nov 2014
- Working Paper Summaries
Financial Development and Technology Diffusion
Keywords: by Diego Comin & Ramana Nanda
- April 2008
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Ratcheting, Competition, and the Diffusion of Technological Change: The Case of Televisions Under an Energy Efficiency Program
By: Tomomichi Amano and Hiroshi Ohashi
In differentiated goods markets with societal implications, quality standards are commonly implemented to avoid the under-provision of innovation. Firms have clear incentives to engage in strategic behavior because policymakers use market outcomes as a benchmark in... View Details
Keywords: Product Differentiation; Energy Efficiency Standards; Ratcheting; Diffusion Of Innovation; Technological Innovation; Competition; Quality; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy
Amano, Tomomichi, and Hiroshi Ohashi. "Ratcheting, Competition, and the Diffusion of Technological Change: The Case of Televisions Under an Energy Efficiency Program." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-021, September 2018.