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- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Empirical Guidance: Data Processing and Analysis with Applications in Stata, R, and Python
By: Melissa Ouellet and Michael W. Toffel
This paper describes a range of best practices to compile and analyze datasets, and includes some examples in Stata, R, and Python. It is meant to serve as a reference for those getting started in econometrics, and especially those seeking to conduct data analyses in... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The New Digital Divide
By: Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia and Juan Lavista Ferres
We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than... View Details
- August 2024
- Technical Note
Measuring Concentrated Ownership
By: Christina R. Wing, Everett Alexander and Justin Huang
Firms with strong governance practices exhibit lower control premiums due to reduced risks and more efficient operations. Conversely, poorly governed firms may exhibit higher control premiums as new owners anticipate the need for substantial governance improvements.... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Modest Victims: Victims Who Decline to Broadcast Their Victimization Are Seen As Morally Virtuous
By: Nathan Dhaliwal, Jillian J. Jordan and Pat Barclay
What do people think of victims who conceal their victimhood? We propose that the decision to not broadcast that one has been victimized serves as a costly act of modesty—in doing so, one is potentially forgoing social support and compensation from one’s community. We... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics
By: Mitchell Hoffman and Christopher T. Stanton
This chapter surveys recent advances in personnel economics. We begin by presenting evidence showing substantial and persistent productivity variation among workers in the same roles. We discuss new research on incentives and compensation; hiring practices; the... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
Disclosing Downstream Emissions
By: Robert S. Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna
An increasing number of companies are using the E-liability carbon-accounting method as an important tool for tracking progress toward reducing global emissions in their supply chains. The system does not require formal accounting for downstream emissions—those... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization
This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Don’t Expect Juniors to Teach Senior Professionals to Use Generative AI: Emerging Technology Risks and Novice AI Risk Mitigation Tactics
By: Katherine C. Kellogg, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani
The literature on communities of practice demonstrates that a proven way for senior professionals to upskill
themselves in the use of new technologies that undermine existing expertise is to learn from junior
professionals. It notes that juniors may be better able... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
Researchers and practitioners have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously test multiple treatments, each with different levels. With the rise of technologies like Generative AI, factorial experimentation has become even more accessible: it is easier than ever... View Details
- 2024
- Article
A Universal In-Place Reconfiguration Algorithm for Sliding Cube-Shaped Robots in Quadratic Time
By: Zachary Abel, Hugo A. Akitaya, Scott Duke Kominers, Matias Korman and Frederick Stock
In the modular robot reconfiguration problem we are given n cube-shaped modules (or "robots") as well as two configurations, i.e., placements of the n modules so that their union is face-connected. The goal is to find a sequence of moves that reconfigures the modules... View Details
- June, 2024
- Book Review
Debunking Immigration Myths: A Review Essay of 'Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success' (PublicAffairs, 2022) by Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan
By: Marco Tabellini
This essay reviews Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success by Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan. This elegantly written book, highly accessible to both economists and non-economists, is a must-read for anyone interested in the topic of... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms
By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details
- March 2024
- Case
Ava DuVernay's Array: Disrupting the Hollywood Film Industry
By: Anita Elberse and Morgan Brewton-Johnson
In February 2023 acclaimed filmmaker Ava DuVernay is filming her latest movie, Origin, a daring adaptation of Isabel Wilkerson’s book Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents. With Origin, DuVernay is pioneering a method to finance the endeavor—through a combination of... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference
By: Michael Lindon, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyze randomized controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available... View Details
- February 2024
- Article
Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence
By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details