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    • All HBS Web  (1,127)
      • Faculty Publications  (188)

      Lay Decision TheoryRemove Lay Decision Theory →

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani and Andrei Shleifer
      We present a theory of decisions in which attention to the features of choice options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current choice problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant as well as... View Details
      Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani, and Andrei Shleifer. "A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33466, February 2025.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout." Journal of Law & Economics 67, no. 4 (November 2024): 879–904.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      Strategic Decision Making at Platform Transitions: The Case of Nokia (2010-2011).

      By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael Tushman
      We studied Nokia’s decision to adopt the Windows platform in 2011 to induce new theory on the emotional dynamics of incumbent firms’ strategic decision making at platform transitions. We find that platform companies’ entry into an established industry activates a... View Details
      Keywords: Emotions; Technology Adoption; Corporate Strategy; Transition
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      Vuori, Timo O., and Michael Tushman. "Strategic Decision Making at Platform Transitions: The Case of Nokia (2010-2011)." Strategic Management Journal 45, no. 10 (October 2024): 2018–2062.
      • September 2024
      • Article

      Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts

      By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez and Aila M. Matanock
      Civil conflicts typically end with negotiated settlements, but many settlements fail, often during the implementation stage when average citizens have increasing influence. Citizens sometimes evaluate peace agreements by voting on referendums or the negotiating... View Details
      Keywords: Civil Unrest; Peace Process; Political Leadership; Peace; Politics; Policy Change; Policy; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Governance; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Negotiation; Negotiation Participants; Public Relations Industry; Colombia; Latin America; South America
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      Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez, and Aila M. Matanock. "Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts." Journal of Peace Research 61, no. 5 (September 2024): 874–890.
      • July 2024
      • Module Note

      The Scope of the Corporation

      By: David J. Collis
      Every company, regardless of size or configuration, has to make decisions about the appropriate scope of its operations. In fact, the issue is so fundamental that Ronald Coase won the Nobel Prize in Economics for merely asking the question, “what determines the scope... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Strategy; Mission and Purpose
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      Collis, David J. "The Scope of the Corporation." Harvard Business School Module Note 724-494, July 2024.
      • June 2024
      • Case

      SnapTravel: Betting on 'Super.com'

      By: Reza Satchu and Tom Quinn
      This case explores SnapTravel, a travel startup offering discounted hotel rooms, and its founders’ desire to pivot to a “super app” that saved customers money across many different purchase types. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Hussein Fazal and Henry Shi saw SnapTravel... View Details
      Keywords: Business Growth and Maturation; Business Plan; Business Startups; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Volatility; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Decisions; Income; Entrepreneurship; Geographic Scope; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Health Pandemics; Surveys; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Leading Change; Crisis Management; Goals and Objectives; Risk Management; Consumer Behavior; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Diversification; Expansion; System Shocks; Accommodations Industry; Technology Industry; Canada; United States; Las Vegas
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      Satchu, Reza, and Tom Quinn. "SnapTravel: Betting on 'Super.com'." Harvard Business School Case 824-196, June 2024.
      • May 2024
      • Article

      Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others

      By: Rachel Ruttan, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli and Katherine DeCelles
      Existing work on attribution theory distinguishes between external and internal attributions (i.e., “I overcame adversity due to luck” vs. “my own effort”). We introduce the construct of relational resilience attributions (i.e., “due to help from other people”) as a... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; Forecasting and Prediction; Attitudes; Behavior
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      Ruttan, Rachel, Ting Zhang, Sivahn Barli, and Katherine DeCelles. "Relational Attributions for One’s Own Resilience Predict Compassion for Others." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 126, no. 5 (May 2024): 818–840.
      • April 2024
      • Article

      Decision Authority and the Returns to Algorithms

      By: Hyunjin Kim, Edward L. Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
      We evaluate a pilot in an Inspections Department to explore the returns to a pair of algorithms that varied in their sophistication. We find that both algorithms provided substantial prediction gains, suggesting that even simple data may be helpful. However, these... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithmic Aversion; Algorithmic Decision Making; Algorithms; Public Entrepreneurship; Govenment; Local Government; Crowdsourcing; Crowdsourcing Contests; Inspection; Principal-agent Theory; Government Administration; Decision Making; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Kim, Hyunjin, Edward L. Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Decision Authority and the Returns to Algorithms." Strategic Management Journal 45, no. 4 (April 2024): 619–648.
      • 2024
      • Book

      Deals: The Economic Structure of Business Transactions

      By: Guhan Subramanian and Michael Klausner
      Drawing on real-life cases from a wide range of industries, two acclaimed experts offer a sophisticated but accessible guide to business deals, designed to maximize value for your side.

      Business transactions take widely varying forms—from multibillion-dollar... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; Contracts
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      Subramanian, Guhan, and Michael Klausner. Deals: The Economic Structure of Business Transactions. Harvard University Press, 2024.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry

      By: Dominika Kinga Randle and Gary P. Pisano
      An enduring trait of modern corporations is their propensity to diversify into multiple lines of business. Penrosian theories conceptualize diversification as a strategy to exploit a firm’s fungible, yet “untradeable”, resources and point to redeployment of... View Details
      Keywords: Diversification; Market Entry and Exit; Assets
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      Randle, Dominika Kinga, and Gary P. Pisano. "Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry." Special Issue on Knowledge Resources and Heterogeneity of Entrants within and across Industries. Industrial and Corporate Change 33, no. 1 (February 2024): 238–252.
      • January 2024
      • Background Note

      Making Strategic Choices

      By: Jan W. Rivkin
      This note lays out a process that students and business leaders can follow to make well-integrated sets of strategic choices. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy
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      Rivkin, Jan W. "Making Strategic Choices." Harvard Business School Background Note 724-447, January 2024.
      • December 2023
      • Article

      Discerning Saints: Moralization of Intrinsic Motivation and Selective Prosociality at Work

      By: Mijeong Kwon, Julia Lee Cunningham and Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Intrinsic motivation has received widespread attention as a predictor of positive work outcomes, including employees’ prosocial behavior. In the current research, we offer a more nuanced view by proposing that intrinsic motivation does not uniformly increase prosocial... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Employees
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      Kwon, Mijeong, Julia Lee Cunningham, and Jon M. Jachimowicz. "Discerning Saints: Moralization of Intrinsic Motivation and Selective Prosociality at Work." Academy of Management Journal 66, no. 6 (December 2023): 1625–1650.
      • November–December 2023
      • Article

      Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment

      By: Ethan S. Bernstein, Jesse C. Shore and Alice J. Jang
      We study the connection between communication network structure and an organization’s collective adaptability to a shifting environment. Research has shown that network centralization—the degree to which communication flows disproportionately through one or more... View Details
      Keywords: Network Centralization; Collective Intelligence; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Communication; Decision Making; Networks; Adaptation
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      Bernstein, Ethan S., Jesse C. Shore, and Alice J. Jang. "Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment." Organization Science 34, no. 6 (November–December 2023): 2064–2096.
      • October 2023 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Loris

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Das Narayandas, Stacy Straaberg and David Lane
      In December 2022, Loris’s executive team considered their go-to-market strategy. Loris was an artificial intelligence (AI) software startup for the customer service industry with two products on the market: 1) Agent Assist which provided customer service agents (CSAs)... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Launch; Product Positioning; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Business Startups; AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Technology Industry; United States
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Das Narayandas, Stacy Straaberg, and David Lane. "Loris." Harvard Business School Case 524-010, October 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Complexity of Economic Decisions

      By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
      We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Complexity; Perception; Consumer Behavior; Production
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      Gabaix, Xavier, and Thomas Graeber. "The Complexity of Economic Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-049, February 2024.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Incentive Effects of Subjective Allocations of Rewards and Penalties

      By: Wei Cai, Susanna Gallani and Jee-Eun Shin
      We examine the incentive effects of subjectivity in allocating tournament-based rewards and punishments. We use data from a company where reward and punishment decisions are based on a combination of objective metrics and subjective performance assessments. Rankings... View Details
      Keywords: Subjectivity; Tournament-based Incentives; Rewards; Penalties; Expectancy Theory; Employees; Compensation and Benefits; Management; Decisions; Performance; Measurement and Metrics
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      Cai, Wei, Susanna Gallani, and Jee-Eun Shin. "Incentive Effects of Subjective Allocations of Rewards and Penalties." Management Science 69, no. 5 (May 2023): 3121–3139.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition

      By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael L. Tushman
      Based on an inductive case study, we develop an emotional-temporal process model of an incumbent’s strategic decision making at a platform transition. We describe the senior team’s emotional response to this transition and the impact of these emotions on their... View Details
      Keywords: Emotions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Transition; Digital Platforms
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      Vuori, Timo O., and Michael L. Tushman. "Senior Team Emotional Dynamics and Strategic Decision Making at a Platform Transition." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-054, March 2023.
      • Working Paper

      Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry

      By: Dominika Kinga Randle and Gary P. Pisano
      An enduring trait of modern corporations is their propensity to diversify into multiple lines of business. Penrosian theories conceptualize diversification as a strategy to exploit a firm’s fungible, yet “untradeable,” resources and point to redeployment of... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Technology Adoption; Diversification; Market Entry and Exit; Transformation
      Citation
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      Randle, Dominika Kinga, and Gary P. Pisano. "Diversification as an Adaptive Learning Process: An Empirical Study of General-Purpose and Market-Specific Technological Know-How in New Market Entry." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-032, December 2022.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure

      By: Byungyeon Kim, Oded Koenigsberg and Elie Ofek
      Innovations embody novel features or cutting-edge components aimed at delivering desired customer benefits. Oftentimes, however, we observe the need to recall new products shortly after their introduction. Indeed, a firm may rush an innovation to market in an attempt... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation Management; Innovation And Strategy; Product Development Strategy; Product Introduction; Quality Control; Product Recalls; Game Theory; Market Timing; Innovation Strategy; Product Launch; Product Development
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      Kim, Byungyeon, Oded Koenigsberg, and Elie Ofek. "I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure." Management Science 68, no. 12 (December 2022): 8889–8908.
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning Toward the Greater Good

      By: Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang and Max Bazerman
      In A Theory of Justice, John Rawls employed the ‘veil of Ignorance’ as a moral reasoning device designed to promote impartial thinking. By imagining the choices of decision-makers who are blind to biasing information, one might see more clearly the organizing... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making
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      Greene, Joshua D., Karen Huang, and Max Bazerman. "Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning Toward the Greater Good." Chap. 15 in The Oxford Handbook of Moral Psychology, edited by Manuel Vargas and John M. Doris, 246–261. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2022.
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