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      • Faculty Publications  (435)

      Judgment And Decision-makingRemove Judgment And Decision-making →

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      • May 2025
      • Teaching Note

      The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation

      By: Tsedal Neeley
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 425-720. Florian Hillen, co-founder and CEO of VideaHealth, a startup using artificial intelligence (AI) to detect dental conditions on x-rays, spent the early years of his company laying the groundwork for an AI factory. This AI factory,... View Details
      Keywords: Diagnostics; Organization Design; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Health Care and Treatment; AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Technology Adoption; Disruptive Innovation; Management Style; Organizational Culture; Success; Adoption; Technology Industry; Health Industry; United States
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      Neeley, Tsedal. "The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 425-102, May 2025.
      • 2025
      • Report

      High Stakes: A Framework for Geopolitical Risk Management

      By: Meg Rithmire and David Fagan
      This report provides a data-based assessment of how U.S. companies perceive geopolitical risk and articulates a recommended decision-making process and framework to manage such risk. The research reflected in the report indicates that various concerns related to China... View Details
      Keywords: Globalization; International Relations; Business or Company Management; Risk Management
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      Rithmire, Meg, and David Fagan. "High Stakes: A Framework for Geopolitical Risk Management." Report, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, Washington, DC, USA, 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar and Xupin Zhang
      Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling... View Details
      Keywords: Sharing Economy; Airbnb; Image Feature Extraction; Machine Learning; Facial Expressions; Prejudice and Bias; Nonverbal Communication; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Perception
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar, and Xupin Zhang. "Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile." Journal of Consumer Research 51, no. 6 (April 2025): 1073–1097.
      • March 2025
      • Article

      Is Personal Identity Intransitive?

      By: J. De Freitas and L. J. Rips
      There has been a call for a potentially revolutionary change to our existing understanding of the psychological concept of personal identity. Apparently, people can psychologically represent people, including themselves, as multiple individuals at the same time. Here... View Details
      Keywords: Identity; Judgments
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      De Freitas, J., and L. J. Rips. "Is Personal Identity Intransitive?" Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 154, no. 3 (March 2025): 775–786.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      New Product Diffusion Within Retailers: The Effect of Managerial Quality on Rollout

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Jorge Tamayo
      Retailers are key intermediaries through which consumers encounter innovation in the form of new products. How are these products rolled out within retailers? We observe significant variation in the availability of new products across stores in a large retail chain in... View Details
      Keywords: Managerial Quality; Firm Performance; Diffusion Of Innovation; New Product Rollout; Retailing; Distribution Channels; Product Launch; Management Skills; Retail Industry; Colombia
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Jorge Tamayo. "New Product Diffusion Within Retailers: The Effect of Managerial Quality on Rollout." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-041, February 2025.
      • February 2025
      • Tutorial

      Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

      By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon
      In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details
      Keywords: Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Toffel, Michael W., and Spencer Glendon. Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk. Harvard Business School Tutorial 625-709, February 2025. (Click here for HBP Educators link.)
      • January 2025
      • Module Note

      Understanding and Addressing Gender Gaps

      By: Katherine Coffman
      This module provides a framework for students to analyze how gender stereotypes, through their impact on beliefs about others and beliefs about ourselves, contribute to gender gaps in the workplace. The module proceeds in three parts. First, through a case and an... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Gender; Leadership; Management Practices and Processes; Prejudice and Bias
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      Coffman, Katherine. "Understanding and Addressing Gender Gaps." Harvard Business School Module Note 925-021, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Technical Note

      AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

      By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
      This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details
      Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance
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      Neeley, Tsedal, and Tim Englehart. "AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix." Harvard Business School Technical Note 425-049, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
      Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Sophia Pan. "AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital." Harvard Business School Case 225-053, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      Index and Active Investing: Vanguard and the New Frontier of Active ETFs

      By: Marco Sammon, Luis M. Viceira and Jonathan Kanagasabai
      This case explores Vanguard’s strategic decision-making process as it considers entering the growing market for actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Set in 2024, the case places students in the position of Rodney Comegys, Vanguard’s global head of the Equity... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Financial Strategy; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry
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      Sammon, Marco, Luis M. Viceira, and Jonathan Kanagasabai. "Index and Active Investing: Vanguard and the New Frontier of Active ETFs." Harvard Business School Case 225-056, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation (A)

      By: Tsedal Neeley, Levi Stroud, Ruth Page and Dave Habeeb
      Pre-abstract: This multimedia case should be assigned to students in advance of class. Instructors should consider the timing of making the (B) Case videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.

      Abstract: Florian Hillen, co-founder... View Details
      Keywords: Diagnostics; Organization Design; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Health Care and Treatment; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Technological Innovation; Management Style; Organizational Culture; Success; Technology Industry; Health Industry; United States
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      Neeley, Tsedal, Levi Stroud, Ruth Page, and Dave Habeeb. "The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation (A)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 425-720, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Supplement

      The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation (B)

      By: Tsedal Neeley, Levi Stroud, Ruth Page and Dave Habeeb
      Pre-abstract: This multimedia case should be assigned to students in advance of class. Instructors should consider the timing of making the (B) Case videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.

      Abstract: Florian Hillen, co-founder... View Details
      Keywords: Diagnostics; Organization Design; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Health Care and Treatment; AI and Machine Learning; Technology Adoption; Technological Innovation; Management Style; Organizational Culture; Success; Technology Industry; Health Industry; United States
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      Neeley, Tsedal, Levi Stroud, Ruth Page, and Dave Habeeb. "The VideaHealth AI Factory: CEO Florian Hillen on Speed, Scale, and Innovation (B)." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 425-721, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      Constitutional Fiction: John Miller & the Legitimacy of Family Constitutions

      By: Lauren Cohen, Octavian Graf Pilati and Sophia Pan
      John Miller sat reviewing his family’s Constitution, grappling with how best to implement and enforce its provisions. Designed to prevent ambiguity in governance, the Family Constitution set out core values and guidelines to promote harmony and cohesion among family... View Details
      Keywords: Conflict Resolution; Perspective Taking; Liabilities; Family Business; Family Ownership; Business Growth and Maturation; Alignment; Cooperation; Attitudes; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict Management; Conflict of Interests; Power and Influence; Perception; Trust; Perspective; Motivation and Incentives; Happiness; Identity; Goals and Objectives; Legal Liability; Contracts; Fairness; Values and Beliefs; Governance Controls; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Family and Family Relationships; Manufacturing Industry; Germany
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      Cohen, Lauren, Octavian Graf Pilati, and Sophia Pan. "Constitutional Fiction: John Miller & the Legitimacy of Family Constitutions." Harvard Business School Case 225-054, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Article

      Overcoming Barriers to Employee Ownership: Insights from Small and Medium-Sized Businesses

      By: John Guzek and Ashley Whillans
      This research investigates the limited adoption of employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) among small-to-medium sized businesses (SMBs) in the U.S. Through interviews with 30 SMB owners across various industries, we identify the key barriers to ESOP adoption as lack of... View Details
      Keywords: Profit Sharing; Employee Ownership; Management Practices and Processes; Compensation and Benefits; Small Business; Adoption; Employees
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      Guzek, John, and Ashley Whillans. "Overcoming Barriers to Employee Ownership: Insights from Small and Medium-Sized Businesses." Compensation & Benefits Review 57, no. 1 (January 2025): 64–81.
      • December 12, 2024
      • Article

      6 Lessons from Companies That Shut Down Their Business in Russia

      By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Joel Ryynänen
      Increasingly, companies are being pressured to decouple from regions that customers, employees, politicians, advocacy groups, and even leaders deem politically fraught. This can pose a dilemma for executives, as research both shows that fast decision-making is vital,... View Details
      Keywords: Public Opinion; Ethics; International Relations; Crisis Management
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      Heikkinen, Kalle, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Joel Ryynänen. "6 Lessons from Companies That Shut Down Their Business in Russia." Harvard Business Review (website) (December 12, 2024).
      • December 2024
      • Article

      Managerial Pluralism: Thirty Years of Teaching Business Ethics

      By: Joseph L. Badaracco
      The author reflects on 30 years of teaching business ethics at Harvard Business School. The paper presents tactical lessons for teaching courses in professional ethics and introduces “managerial pluralism.” This concept is akin to Isaiah Berlin’s value pluralism and... View Details
      Keywords: Business Education; Ethics; Judgments
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      Badaracco, Joseph L. "Managerial Pluralism: Thirty Years of Teaching Business Ethics." Society 61, no. 6 (December 2024): 678–684.
      • December 2024
      • Article

      Public Attitudes on Performance for Algorithmic and Human Decision-Makers

      By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
      This study explores public preferences for algorithmic and human decision-makers (DMs) in high-stakes contexts, how these preferences are shaped by performance metrics, and whether public evaluations of performance differ depending on the type of DM. Leveraging a... View Details
      Keywords: Public Opinion; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making
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      Bansak, Kirk, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Public Attitudes on Performance for Algorithmic and Human Decision-Makers." PNAS Nexus 3, no. 12 (December 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models

      By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
      We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Accounting; Profit; Corporate Disclosure; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics
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      Shaffer, Matthew, and Charles CY Wang. "Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models." Working Paper, November 2024.
      • September–October 2024
      • Article

      Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong

      By: Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson
      When considering internal data or the results of a study, often business leaders either take the evidence presented as gospel or dismiss it altogether. Both approaches are misguided. What leaders need to do instead is conduct rigorous discussions that assess any... View Details
      Keywords: Information; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Decision Making
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      Luca, Michael, and Amy C. Edmondson. "Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 5 (September–October 2024): 80–89.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang
      The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming creative problem-solving, necessitating new approaches for evaluating innovative solutions. This study explores how human-AI collaboration can enhance early-stage evaluations, focusing on the interplay... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation and Invention; Decision Making
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh, and Pei-Hsin Wang. "The Narrative AI Advantage? A Field Experiment on Generative AI-Augmented Evaluations of Early-Stage Innovations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-001, August 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
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