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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,881)
- People (12)
- News (1,105)
- Research (2,170)
- Events (14)
- Multimedia (43)
- Faculty Publications (1,017)
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details
Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details
Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment
Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 5 (October 2022): 2559–2599.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds
By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details
Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment; United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26608, January 2020. (Accepted at the Review of Economic Studies. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-122, May 2020. Direct download. Revised July 2021.)
- 15 Feb 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- Article
New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: K. A. Froot
Froot, K. A. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Finance 44, no. 2 (June 1989): 283–305. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2363, March 1990. Reprinted in Behavioral Finance, edited by H. Shefrin, part of the International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics, edited by R. Roll. London: Edward Elgar, 2000.)
- 01 Mar 2012
- News
Great Expectations
courses. As we continue to incorporate the field method into our programs, expectations within the School and beyond are high. The stakes are high, too. By developing new ways of teaching and learning, we hope to raise the bar for... View Details
- May 2000
- Article
Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a... View Details
Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods
Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors." Journal of Economic Theory 92, no. 1 (May 2000): 35–65.
- August 2001
- Technical Note
Technical Note on Expectations
Reviews the mathematics of expectations embedded in a company's current stock price and the related (whole) enterprise value. Begins by showing how the current stock price can be compounded forward to arrive at an expectation one or more years in the future. Describes... View Details
Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Technical Note on Expectations." Harvard Business School Technical Note 902-055, August 2001.
- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
- September 2004
- Article
Anchoring Expectations
By: David A Lax and James K. Sebenius
Lax, David A., and James K. Sebenius. "Anchoring Expectations." Negotiation 7, no. 9 (September 2004): 9–11.
- June 2001
- Article
Expected Option Returns
By: Joshua D. Coval and Tyler Shumway
Keywords: Investment Return
Coval, Joshua D., and Tyler Shumway. "Expected Option Returns." Journal of Finance 56, no. 3 (June 2001).
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- 02 Oct 2019
- News
What to Expect When You’re Expecting Gender-Reveal Backlash
- Article
Rising to Rising Expectations
Keywords: Performance Expectations
Kanter, Rosabeth M. "Rising to Rising Expectations." World Link 15, no. 1 (January–February 2002): 70–74.
- Research Summary
Relational Motivation & Need Expectations
My current research in this area explores the ways in which the nature of relational interactions at work facilitate, or supress, important individual and organizational outcomes such as motivation, engagement and personal well-being. Much of my work in this... View Details
- Dataset