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- 2020
- Working Paper
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy
By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Inflation and Deflation; United States; China
Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. "Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26396, October 2019. (Revised June 2020. Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-041, October 2019)
- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138, no. 4 (November 2023): 2327–2389.
- 2020
- Chapter
Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in... View Details
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
- Article
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy
By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; United States
Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. "Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy." American Economic Review: Insights 3, no. 1 (March 2021).
- 2019
- Working Paper
Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods
By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
We use a dataset containing daily prices for thousands of matched retail products in nine countries to study tradable-goods real exchange rates. Prices were collected from the websites of large multi-channel retailers and then carefully matched into narrowly-defined... View Details
Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity; Online Prices; Real Exchange Rate; Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Internet and the Web
Cavallo, Alberto, Brent Neiman, and Roberto Rigobon. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence from Matched Retail Goods." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-040, January 2019.
- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
- April 2001
- Exercise
Exchange Rate Exercise
Tests students' understanding of exchange rate analytics and how shifts in exchange rates affect firms' economics. View Details
Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate
Kennedy, Robert E. "Exchange Rate Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 701-122, April 2001.
- May 2004 (Revised June 2005)
- Background Note
Exchange Rate Regimes
By: Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
There are many options for a country in the management of monetary policy. At the most basic level is the decision of whether to adopt a fixed or a floating exchange rate. Introduces the economics behind exchange rates and the debate between fixed vs. floating regimes. View Details
Di Tella, Rafael M., and Ingrid Vogel. "Exchange Rate Regimes." Harvard Business School Background Note 704-038, May 2004. (Revised June 2005.)
- 1992
- Chapter
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market." In International Business Reader, edited by D. Duta. London: Oxford University Press, 1992. (Revised from IMF Working Paper No. 90/43 and NBER Working Paper No. 3470, October 1990.)
- March 1984 (Revised July 1985)
- Background Note
Note on Exchange Rate Determination
Discusses exchange rate determination in world of flexible rates. The fundamentals of supply of and demand for foreign exchange are explained. View Details
Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate
Meerschwam, David M. "Note on Exchange Rate Determination." Harvard Business School Background Note 384-171, March 1984. (Revised July 1985.)
- April 2001
- Background Note
Exchange Rate Terminology and Analytics
An introduction to the concept of exchange rates, simple analytics regarding currency appreciation and devaluation, and real and nominal exchange rates. Concludes with a series of examples that illustrate how shifts in exchange rates and inflation can affect firms'... View Details
Kennedy, Robert E. "Exchange Rate Terminology and Analytics." Harvard Business School Background Note 701-121, April 2001.
- March 2006
- Module Note
Exchange Rates and Firms
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Describes a core module in the International Finance course at Harvard Business School. The module focuses on how firms identify, measure, and manage currency exposures. The cases first introduce students to foreign exchange exposures and the tools used to manage... View Details
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Exchange Rates and Firms." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-123, March 2006.
- March 1987
- Article
Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
- March 2006
- Module Note
Exchange Rates and Global Markets
By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs
Describes the first module of the International Finance course at Harvard Business School. This introductory module focuses on the concepts and skills that students need throughout a course on international finance: a familiarity with exchange rates and associated... View Details
Keywords: Asset Pricing; Currency Exchange Rate; Globalized Markets and Industries; International Finance; Teaching; Innovation and Invention; Education Industry
Desai, Mihir A., and Kathleen Luchs. "Exchange Rates and Global Markets." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-122, March 2006.
- Article
Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate
By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
We use a novel dataset of online prices of identical goods sold by four large global retailers in dozens of countries to study good-level real exchange rates and their aggregated behavior. First, in contrast to the prior literature, we demonstrate that the law of one... View Details
Keywords: Currency Union; Law Of One Price; International Prices; Global Firm; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; International Finance
Cavallo, Alberto, Brent Neiman, and Roberto Rigobon. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 2 (May 2014): 529–595.
- Article
You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
Real exchange rate devaluations are typically seen as a viable development strategy, but the effectiveness of the approach may vary over time and across countries. This column explores this issue by focusing on the microeconomics of firm-level responses to exchange... View Details
Keywords: Manufacturing Performance; Real Exchange Rate; Global Value Chains; Economics; Production; Performance
Alfaro, Laura, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger, and Yanping Liu. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: The Real Exchange Rate and Manufacturing Performance in a World of Global Value Chains." Vox, CEPR Policy Portal (October 2, 2018).
- June 2011 (Revised August 2011)
- Background Note
China and the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate
By: Aldo Musacchio
This note explains how the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages (some say manipulate) the dollar-yuan exchange rate. It discusses briefly the process of sterilization in China and the possible costs for the PBOC. Therefore, the note summarizes some of the main... View Details
Musacchio, Aldo. "China and the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate." Harvard Business School Background Note 711-110, June 2011. (Revised August 2011.)
- 2001
- Article
Exchange Rates and Tax-Based Promotion
By: M. A. Desai and James R. Hines Jr.
Desai, M. A., and James R. Hines Jr. "Exchange Rates and Tax-Based Promotion." Proceedings of the Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association (2001).
- January 2003
- Case
Exchange Rate Policy at the Monetary Authority of Singapore
By: Mihir A. Desai and Mark Veblen
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is responsible for the country's monetary policy, and its decisions are intended to support the country's overall strategy for sustainable economic growth with price stability. MAS has been very successful in managing exchange... View Details
Desai, Mihir A., and Mark Veblen. "Exchange Rate Policy at the Monetary Authority of Singapore." Harvard Business School Case 204-037, January 2003.
- November 2018
- Technical Note
Exchange Rates and the Trilemma
By: Alberto Cavallo
Cavallo, Alberto. "Exchange Rates and the Trilemma." Harvard Business School Technical Note 719-031, November 2018.