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    • All HBS Web  (182)
      • Faculty Publications  (27)

      Election OutcomesRemove Election Outcomes →

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      • November 2024
      • Article

      On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout." Journal of Law & Economics 67, no. 4 (November 2024): 879–904.
      • Fall, 2024
      • Article

      Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls

      By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
      We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Race; Political Elections; Voting; Policy; Outcome or Result; Government Legislation
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      Bernini, Andrea, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa. "Sixty Years of the Voting Rights Act: Progress and Pitfalls." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 40, no. 3 (Fall, 2024): 486–497.
      • August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
      • Case

      No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan

      By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn
      After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details
      Keywords: Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawsuits and Litigation; Failure; System Shocks; Political Elections; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States
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      White, Robert F., and Tom Quinn. "No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan." Harvard Business School Case 825-044, August 2024. (Revised November 2024.)
      • March 2024
      • Article

      The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?

      By: Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini
      We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing... View Details
      Keywords: Political Backlash; Cultural Beliefs; Immigration; Political Elections; Outcome or Result; Social Issues; Perception
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      Alesina, Alberto, and Marco Tabellini. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?" Journal of Economic Literature 62, no. 1 (March 2024): 5–46.
      • 2024
      • Chapter

      The U.S. Secession Crisis as a Breakdown of Democracy

      By: Dean Grodzins and David Moss
      This chapter examines the U.S. secession crisis of 1860–1861 as a case of democratic breakdown. From December 1860 to early June 1861, eleven of the fifteen slaveholding states in the U.S. South declared secession from the Union. The trigger for the crisis was Abraham... View Details
      Keywords: War; History; Political Elections; United States
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      Grodzins, Dean, and David Moss. "The U.S. Secession Crisis as a Breakdown of Democracy." Chap. 3 in When Democracy Breaks: Studies in Democratic Erosion and Collapse, from Ancient Athens to the Present Day, edited by Archon Fung, David Moss, and Odd Arne Westad, 43–107. Oxford University Press, 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

      By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
      Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details
      Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru
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      Cox, Loreto, and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz. "Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries." Working Paper, July 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections

      By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its... View Details
      Keywords: Political Ideology; Political Elections; United States; France
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      Di Tella, Rafael, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec, and Vincent Pons. "Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31503, July 2023.
      • Article

      All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity

      By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz and Mateo Montenegro
      Can information and communication technologies help citizens monitor their elections? We analyze a large-scale field experiment designed to answer this question in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements sent to over 4 million potential voters to encourage... View Details
      Keywords: Social Influence; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Economics; Economy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Media; Social Marketing; Society; Political Elections; Advertising
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      Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia, and Mateo Montenegro. "All Eyes on Them: A Field Experiment on Citizen Oversight and Electoral Integrity." American Economic Review 112, no. 8 (August 2022): 2631–2668.
      • March 2022 (Revised April 2023)
      • Case

      Pittsburgh: A Successful City?

      By: Karen Mills, Caroline Elkins, Vikram Gandhi, Gabriella Elanbeck and Zeke Gillman
      Pittsburgh, PA, was once the crown jewel of American heavy industry. During the 19th and 20th centuries, the city was an undisputed leader in steel production, boasting some of the largest companies and wealthiest individuals in the world. Its abundance of... View Details
      Keywords: Economic And Social Disparities; Economic Development; Local Economic Development; Contextual Intelligence; Contextual Knowledge; Context; City Growth; City Innovation; City Leadership; Pittsburgh; Local Government; Local Stakeholders; Business And Community; Business And Community Relations; Community Engagement; Community Relations; Cross-sector Collaboration; Innovation; Innovation Economy; Innovation Clusters; Innovation Ecosystems; Shared Prosperity; Equality Of Opportunity; Equity; Inclusion; Business And Government; Business & Government Relations; Business And Government Relations; Business And Society; Neighborhoods; Race And Ethnicity; Innovation & Entrepreneurship; Diversity; Ethnicity; Race; Household; Income; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Economics; Local Range; Urban Development; Urban Scope; City; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Growth and Development; History; Leadership; Goals and Objectives; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Society; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Human Needs; Public Opinion; Public Sector; Social Issues; Poverty; Equality and Inequality; Manufacturing Industry; Steel Industry; Education Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Technology Industry; United States; Pittsburgh; Pennsylvania
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      Mills, Karen, Caroline Elkins, Vikram Gandhi, Gabriella Elanbeck, and Zeke Gillman. "Pittsburgh: A Successful City?" Harvard Business School Case 322-080, March 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France

      By: Nikolaj Broberg, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
      This paper investigates the effects of campaign finance rules on electoral outcomes. In French departmental and municipal elections, candidates competing in districts above 9,000 inhabitants face spending limits and are eligible for public reimbursement if they obtain... View Details
      Keywords: Political Elections; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Outcome or Result; France
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      Broberg, Nikolaj, Vincent Pons, and Clémence Tricaud. "The Impact of Campaign Finance Rules on Candidate Selection and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from France." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29805, February 2022.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Prominent theory research on voting uses models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many individuals turn out for... View Details
      Keywords: Voter Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Voting; Behavior; Theory
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-097, March 2020.
      • Article

      Mandate Outcomes Reporting

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and Michael E. Porter
      Currently, few health care providers measure and report their patient outcomes, which leads to several problems. Attempts to introduce price transparency without outcomes transparency could trigger a “race to the bottom.” Should Medicare coverage be expanded to... View Details
      Keywords: Outcomes Reporting; Outcomes Measurement; Medicare; Medicaid; Health Care and Treatment; Outcome or Result; Measurement and Metrics
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and Michael E. Porter. "Mandate Outcomes Reporting." Health Management, Policy and Innovation 4, no. 3 (December 2019).
      • Spring 2018
      • Article

      Henry Kissinger and Robert Mugabe: The Forgotten Connection via Remarkably Creative Negotiation

      By: James K. Sebenius
      When Robert Mugabe was forced out of office in late 2017 after 37 years of increasingly brutal rule in Zimbabwe, he had been in the job so long that few recall how he got there. Fewer still remember that it was Henry Kissinger, whose complex, if unlikely, negotiations... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation; History; Negotiation Style; Outcome or Result; Zimbabwe
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      Sebenius, James K. "Henry Kissinger and Robert Mugabe: The Forgotten Connection via Remarkably Creative Negotiation." Harvard International Review 39, no. 2 (Spring 2018): 58–61.
      • Article

      Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Who will vote quadratically in large-N elections under quadratic voting (QV)? First, who will vote? Although the core QV literature assumes that everyone votes, turnout is endogenous. Drawing on other work, we consider the representativeness of endogenously... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Quadratic Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Mathematical Methods
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Who Will Vote Quadratically? Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting." Special Issue on Quadratic Voting and the Public Good. Public Choice 172, nos. 1-2 (July 2017): 125–149.
      • 2016
      • Working Paper

      Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance Against Elite Betrayal

      By: Rafael Di Tella and Julio J. Rotemberg
      We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice... View Details
      Keywords: Corruption; Betrayal; Populism; Incompetence; Literacy; Crime and Corruption; Income; Ethics; Political Elections; Race; Residency
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      Di Tella, Rafael, and Julio J. Rotemberg. "Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance Against Elite Betrayal." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-056, December 2016.
      • October 2016
      • Case

      U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016: Marketing Communication Strategy

      By: Robert J. Dolan
      On October 18, 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump began the last three weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign by preparing for the next day's third and final presidential debate. Tuesday, November 8 was Election Day, but in... View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Voting Behavior; Voting; Marketing Communications; Political Elections; United States
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      Dolan, Robert J. "U.S. Presidential Campaign 2016: Marketing Communication Strategy." Harvard Business School Case 517-057, October 2016.
      • November 2, 2012
      • Editorial

      Natural Disasters Hurt Incumbents

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Natural Disasters; Political Elections
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      Cole, Shawn A., Andrew Healy, and Eric Werker. "Natural Disasters Hurt Incumbents." Politico (November 2, 2012).
      • October 2012
      • Case

      Romney vs. Obama and U.S. Energy Policy

      By: Rawi Abdelal and Kaitlyn Tuthill
      In 2012, the energy sector in the United States was demanding major reform. Prices of oil and gas had continued to cripple the middle and lower class as the U.S. economy slowly recovered. At the same time, the U.S. lagged behind developed economies in production of... View Details
      Keywords: Mitt Romney; Barack Obama; Energy; Election Outcomes; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Political Elections; Policy; Business and Government Relations; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Abdelal, Rawi, and Kaitlyn Tuthill. "Romney vs. Obama and U.S. Energy Policy." Harvard Business School Case 713-050, October 2012.
      • April 2010
      • Course Overview Note

      Managing Human Capital

      By: Boris Groysberg
      Managing Human Capital, a second-year elective course at Harvard Business School, seeks to create business leaders who understand human resources practices essential to firm performance and who think strategically about managing their own careers. This Managing Human... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resources; Human Capital; Management; Outcome or Result; Personal Development and Career
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      Groysberg, Boris. "Managing Human Capital." Harvard Business School Course Overview Note 410-124, April 2010.​
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