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2025
Working Paper

Small Business Innovation Applied to National Needs

By: Kyle Myers, Lauren Lanahan and Evan E. Johnson

Small businesses have long supplied a disproportionate share of major innovations in the United States. We review a centerpiece policy on this topic: the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.We trace its legislative history and summarize... View Details

June 2025
Article

Collusion in Brokered Markets

By: John William Hatfield, Scott Duke Kominers and Richard Lowery

High commissions in the U.S. residential real estate agency market present a puzzle for economic theory because brokerage is not a concentrated industry. We model brokered markets as a game in which agents post prices for customers and then choose which other agents to... View Details

May 2025 (Revised June 2025)
Background Note

Social Enterprise in Latin America

By: Brian L. Trelstad and Karina Souza

This research note provides an overview of the social enterprise ecosystem in Latin America, exploring current dynamics across key markets, including country-specific insights on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Central America. In a region characterized... View Details

May 2025
Article

The Diffusion of New Technologies

By: Aakash Kalyani, Marcela Carvalho, Nicholas Bloom, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun

We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Geography; Innovation; R＆D; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Employment; Geographic Location

2025
White Paper

Governors Reshaping Workforce Development: Turning WIOA Challenges into Workforce Solutions

By: Joseph B. Fuller, Kerry McKittrick, Nathalie Gazzaneo, Ariel Higuchi, Justine Gluck, Zoe Butler, Jack Porter and Malena Dailey

The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) grants Governors significant authority to shape their state workforce systems. Yet, little research explores how they use those powers to strengthen their economies and expand access to employment and training.... View Details

Keywords: Government Administration; Policy; Training; Employment

April 2025
Article

Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile

By: Shunyuan Zhang, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar and Xupin Zhang

Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling... View Details

Keywords: Sharing Economy; Airbnb; Image Feature Extraction; Machine Learning; Facial Expressions; Prejudice and Bias; Nonverbal Communication; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Perception

March 2025
Case

The Changing Climate on Wall Street

By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris

Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks. In October 2024,... View Details

March 2025
Case

GiveDirectly: Can Direct Cash Transfers End Extreme Poverty?

By: Natalia Rigol, Benjamin N. Roth, Sarah Mehta and John Schultz

Founded in 2008, GiveDirectly was a nonprofit organization that used direct cash transfers—giving people cash via mobile money—to combat poverty worldwide. By August 2024, the organization had transferred over $800 million to poor people in targeted communities and... View Details

Keywords: Economics; Ethics; Growth and Development; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Research; Nonprofit Organizations; Poverty; Africa; Asia; Latin America; North and Central America; United States

February 13, 2025
Article

Research: The Costs of Circumventing Tariffs

By: Jaya Y. Wen, Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky and Sung-Ju Wu

When tariffs are levied against a specific country, that country might attempt to circumvent the tariff by rerouting products through a third country to avoid the higher taxes. Research in the aftermath of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war examined this phenomenon, finding... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Global Strategy; International Relations; United States; China

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November 2024
Article

On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers

Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details

Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections

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November 2024
Article

Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano

This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details

Keywords: Econometrics; Casual Inference; Marketing; Economics; Advertising; Mathematical Methods

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2025
Working Paper

Global Evidence on Gender Gaps and Generative AI

By: Nicholas G. Otis, Solène Delecourt, Katelynn Cranney and Rembrand Koning

Generative AI has the potential to transform productivity and reduce inequality, but only if adopted broadly. In this paper, we show that recently identified gender gaps in generative AI use are nearly universal. Synthesizing data from 18 studies covering more than... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Technology Adoption; Behavior

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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September 2024
Article

The Human Side of the Future of Work: Understanding the Role People Play in Shaping a Changing World

By: Jochen I. Menges, Lauren C. Howe, Erika Hall, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Sharon K. Parker, Riki Takeuchi, Abhijeet K. Vadera, Ashley Whillans and Susan K. Cohen

For as long as there has been work, there has been a “future of work,” through humans’ ingenuity and drive to get things done easier, faster, and better. With the industrial revolution, efforts to shape a better future of work were dominated by improvements in... View Details

Keywords: Change; Labor

2024
Working Paper

How Real Is Hypothetical?: A High-Stakes Test of the Allais Paradox

By: Uri Gneezy, Yoram Halevy, Brian Hall, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven

Researchers in behavioral and experimental economics often argue that only incentive-compatible mechanisms can elicit effort and truthful responses from participants. Others argue that participants make less-biased decisions when the stakes are sufficiently high.... View Details

Keywords: Research; Behavioral Finance; Economics; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias

2024
Working Paper

People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics

By: Mitchell Hoffman and Christopher T. Stanton

This chapter surveys recent advances in personnel economics. We begin by presenting evidence showing substantial and persistent productivity variation among workers in the same roles. We discuss new research on incentives and compensation; hiring practices; the... View Details

Keywords: Employees; Labor

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June 2024
Article

Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke

This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society

2024
Working Paper

Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden

Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic... View Details

Keywords: Immigrant Employment; Immigration; Entrepreneurship; Demographics; Innovation and Invention

February 2024
Article

Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor

Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details

Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Research; Mathematical Methods; Perception; Banks and Banking; Body of Literature

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2024
Working Paper

The Wandering Scholars: Understanding the Heterogeneity of University Commercialization

By: Josh Lerner, Henry Manley, Carolyn Stein and Heidi Williams

University-based scientific research has long been argued to be a central source of commercial innovation and economic growth. Yet at the same time, there have been long-held concerns that many university-based discoveries never realize their potential social... View Details

Keywords: Research; Higher Education; Business Startups; Innovation and Invention

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