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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (246)

      Economic MeasurementRemove Economic Measurement →

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      • April 2025
      • Case

      Techint: Strategic Choices for Community Impact

      By: Lauren Cohen, Virak Prum, Kenneth Charman, Pedro Levindo and Mariana Cal
      In early 2024 Erika Bienek, Chief Community Relations Officer at Techint, had to decide whether to invest in a new company-owned and operated technical school in Veracruz, Mexico, or invest instead in strengthening the city’s public education system. Techint, a global... View Details
      Keywords: Technical Institutes; Community Relations; Social Impact; Argentina; Mexico; Brazil; Conglomerate; Stakeholder Management; Government And Business; Community Impact; Philanthropy; Business Conglomerates; Business Subsidiaries; Business Headquarters; Family Business; Decision Making; Private Sector; Public Sector; Education; Curriculum and Courses; Middle School Education; Secondary Education; Teaching; Training; Learning; Energy; Engineering; Construction; Values and Beliefs; Geography; Global Range; Local Range; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Firms and Management; Government Legislation; Recruitment; Innovation and Invention; Disruptive Innovation; Knowledge; Resource Allocation; Industry Clusters; Infrastructure; Family Ownership; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Business and Community Relations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Business and Government Relations; Creativity; Reputation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Poverty; Strategy; Construction Industry; Education Industry; Energy Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Steel Industry; Europe; Italy; Latin America; North and Central America; Mexico; North America; United States; South America; Argentina; Buenos Aires; Brazil
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      Cohen, Lauren, Virak Prum, Kenneth Charman, Pedro Levindo, and Mariana Cal. "Techint: Strategic Choices for Community Impact." Harvard Business School Case 825-058, April 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Case

      The CHIPS Program Office (Abridged)

      By: Mitch Weiss and Sebastian Negron-Reichard
      In February 2023, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo weighed signing off on a Notice of Funding Opportunity (“NOFO”) with at least one unconventional provision: a pre-application (“pre-app”) to the actual application for parts of $39 billion in direct semiconductor... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Public Sector; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Motivation and Incentives; Semiconductor Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Weiss, Mitch, and Sebastian Negron-Reichard. "The CHIPS Program Office (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 825-192, April 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Transferability MATTRs: Towards Understanding Antecedents of Strategic Licensing

      By: Dafna F. Bearson and Maria P. Roche
      This paper examines the antecedents of firms’ decisions to license intellectual property (IP). We propose a conceptual framework emphasizing two critical factors: (1) transferability, which we define as the ease of moving knowledge embodied in inventions across firm... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Intellectual Property; Value Creation
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      Bearson, Dafna F., and Maria P. Roche. "Transferability MATTRs: Towards Understanding Antecedents of Strategic Licensing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-042, March 2025.
      • March 2025
      • Case

      The Changing Climate on Wall Street

      By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris
      Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks. In October 2024,... View Details
      Keywords: Change; Disruption; Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Ethics; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Organizations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Society; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Strategy; Adaptation; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Europe
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      Rose, Clayton S., Maxim Pike Harrell, and Michael Norris. "The Changing Climate on Wall Street." Harvard Business School Case 325-020, March 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Turning Away from the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil

      By: Paula Rettl
      How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose expanding the welfare state. However, in the Global South, where the state is frequently weak or under-resourced,... View Details
      Keywords: Global Strategy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Governance; Government Administration; Political Elections; Voting; Latin America; Brazil; South America
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      Rettl, Paula. "Turning Away from the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-038, February 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      CEO-Firm Matches and Productivity in 42 Countries

      By: Amanda Dahlstrand, Dávid László, Helena Schweiger, Oriana Bandiera, Andrea Prat and Raffaella Sadun
      Firms are key to economic development, and CEOs are key to firm productivity. Are firms in countries at varying stages of development led by the right CEOs, and if not, why? We develop a parsimonious measure of CEO time use that allows us to differentiate CEOs into... View Details
      Keywords: Training; Management Skills; Economic Growth; Leadership Development
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      Dahlstrand, Amanda, Dávid László, Helena Schweiger, Oriana Bandiera, Andrea Prat, and Raffaella Sadun. "CEO-Firm Matches and Productivity in 42 Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-033, January 2025. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33324, January 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models

      By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
      We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
      Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Accounting; Profit; Corporate Disclosure; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics
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      Shaffer, Matthew, and Charles CY Wang. "Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models." Working Paper, November 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      A Gender Backlash: Does Exposure to Female Labor Market Participation Fuel Gender Conservatism?

      By: Paula Rettl, Diane Bolet, Catherine E. De Vries, Simone Cremaschi, Tarik Abou-Chadi and Sergi Pardos-Prado
      The growing participation of women in the labor market has marked a significant societal transformation, coinciding with the rise of gender conservatism and far-right support. We study whether the economic consequences of labor market feminization and gender backlash... View Details
      Keywords: Gender Bias; Gender Equality; Gender Inclusivity; Politics; Political Backlash; Political Culture; Conservatism; Gender; Government and Politics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Labor
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      Rettl, Paula, Diane Bolet, Catherine E. De Vries, Simone Cremaschi, Tarik Abou-Chadi, and Sergi Pardos-Prado. "A Gender Backlash: Does Exposure to Female Labor Market Participation Fuel Gender Conservatism?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-022, November 2024.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Perceptions About Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
      We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Oleksiy Kryvtsov. "Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge." Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (November 2024).
      • November 5, 2024
      • Article

      The International Empirics of Management

      By: Daniela Scur, Scott Ohlmacher, John Van Reenen, Morten Bennedsen, Nick Bloom, Ali Choudhary, Lucia Foster, Jesse Groenewegen, Arti Grover, Sjoerd Hardeman, Leonardo Iacovone, Ryo Kambayashi, Marie-Christine Laible, Renata Lemos, Hongbin Li, Andrea Linarello, Mika Maliranta, Denis Medvedev, Charlotte Meng, John Miles Touya, Natalia Mandirola, Roope Ohlsbom, Atsushi Ohyama, Megha Patnaik, Mariana Pereira-López, Raffaella Sadun, Tatsuro Senga, Franklin Qian and Florian Zimmermann
      A country’s national income broadly depends on the quantity and quality of workers and capital. But how well these factors are managed within and between firms may be a key determinant of a country’s productivity and its GDP. Although social scientists have long... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Productivity; Economy; Management Practices and Processes
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      Scur, Daniela, Scott Ohlmacher, John Van Reenen, Morten Bennedsen, Nick Bloom, Ali Choudhary, Lucia Foster, Jesse Groenewegen, Arti Grover, Sjoerd Hardeman, Leonardo Iacovone, Ryo Kambayashi, Marie-Christine Laible, Renata Lemos, Hongbin Li, Andrea Linarello, Mika Maliranta, Denis Medvedev, Charlotte Meng, John Miles Touya, Natalia Mandirola, Roope Ohlsbom, Atsushi Ohyama, Megha Patnaik, Mariana Pereira-López, Raffaella Sadun, Tatsuro Senga, Franklin Qian, and Florian Zimmermann. "The International Empirics of Management." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121, no. 45 (November 5, 2024).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Behavioral Attenuation

      By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
      We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance
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      Graeber, Thomas, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea, and Jeffrey Yang. "Behavioral Attenuation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32973, September 2024.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details
      Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Consumer Behavior; Inflation and Deflation; Health Pandemics
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets." Special Issue on The Global Economy: Looking Back, Moving Forward, Part II. IMF Economic Review 72, no. 2 (June 2024): 902–917.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy

      By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl
      Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to... View Details
      Keywords: Technological Innovation; Economic Growth; Price; Production; Aerospace Industry
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      Highfill, Tina, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy." Acta Astronautica 219 (June 2024): 236–242.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

      By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden
      Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic... View Details
      Keywords: Immigrant Employment; Immigration; Entrepreneurship; Demographics; Innovation and Invention
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      Chodavadia, Saheel, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis Maiden. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-068, April 2024.
      • March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
      • Case

      The CHIPS Program Office

      By: Mitchell B. Weiss and Sebastian Negron-Reichard
      In February 2023, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo weighed signing off on a Notice of Funding Opportunity (“NOFO”) with at least one unconventional provision: a pre-application (“pre-app”) to the actual application for parts of $39 billion in direct semiconductor... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Public Sector; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Motivation and Incentives; Semiconductor Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Weiss, Mitchell B., and Sebastian Negron-Reichard. "The CHIPS Program Office." Harvard Business School Case 824-094, March 2024. (Revised July 2024.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Appropriate Entrepreneurship? The Rise of China and the Developing World

      By: Josh Lerner, Junxi Liu, Jacob Moscona and David Yang
      Global innovation and entrepreneurship has traditionally been dominated by a handful of high-income countries, especially the US. This paper investigates the international consequences of the rise of a new hub for innovation, focusing on the dramatic growth of... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Emerging Markets; Economic Growth; China
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      Lerner, Josh, Junxi Liu, Jacob Moscona, and David Yang. "Appropriate Entrepreneurship? The Rise of China and the Developing World." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-061, March 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and Karsten Müller
      Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Borrowing and Debt; Credit
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven, and Karsten Müller. "Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32225, March 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

      By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu
      This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States
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      Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Sung-Ju Wu. "Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-072, May 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • March 2024
      • Article

      Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya

      By: Livia Alfonsi, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová and Edward Miguel
      We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over 20 years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that... View Details
      Keywords: Religion; Human Capital; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; Kenya
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      Alfonsi, Livia, Michal Bauer, Julie Chytilová, and Edward Miguel. "Human Capital Affects Religious Identity: Causal Evidence from Kenya." Art. 103215. Journal of Development Economics 167 (March 2024).
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