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    • All HBS Web  (209)
      • Faculty Publications  (46)

      Economic DownturnRemove Economic Downturn →

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      • September 2024
      • Case

      XYZ Robotics

      By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang, Brian Mao Fu, Shu Lin and Jamie Gong
      Founded in 2018, XYZ Robotics was a China-based startup specializing in robotic picking solutions and 3D machine vision products. Amid an economic downturn and intense competition, the company faced considerable financial challenges and needed to determine the best way... View Details
      Keywords: Robotics; 3D Systems; China; Resource Allocation; Business Startups; Competition; Product; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Technology Industry; China
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      Bussgang, Jeffrey J., Brian Mao Fu, Shu Lin, and Jamie Gong. "XYZ Robotics." Harvard Business School Case 825-059, September 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Article

      Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

      By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
      Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details
      Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Job Search; Behavior
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      Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Review of Financial Studies 37, no. 3 (March 2024): 837–881.
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Tractor Supply Co

      By: David L. Ager and Michael A. Roberto
      In February 2023, Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply Co, the largest farm and ranch retailer in the United States reflected on the company’s 70% growth between 2019 and 2022. Economists had begun to predict an economic downturn and experts were predicting softening... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Retail Industry
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      Ager, David L., and Michael A. Roberto. "Tractor Supply Co." Harvard Business School Case 923-302, June 2023.
      • July–August 2022
      • Article

      Generalized Trust, External Sourcing, and Firm Performance in Economic Downturns

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Bart S. Vanneste
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Bart S. Vanneste. "Generalized Trust, External Sourcing, and Firm Performance in Economic Downturns." Organization Science 33, no. 4 (July–August 2022): 1599–1619.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research

      By: Ofer Mintz, Imran S. Currim and Rohit Deshpandé
      Purpose: This paper aims to propose a new country-level construct, national customer orientation, to provide a benchmark for global headquartered managers’ decisions and scholars investigating cross-national research.
      Design/methodology/approach: A conceptual... View Details
      Keywords: International Marketing; Macro-marketing; Marketing; Financial Crisis; Customer Focus and Relationships; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Mintz, Ofer, Imran S. Currim, and Rohit Deshpandé. "National Customer Orientation: A Framework, Propositions and Agenda for Future Research." European Journal of Marketing 56, no. 4 (April 2022): 1014–1041.
      • July–August 2021
      • Article

      Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes

      By: Annamaria Conti and Maria P. Roche
      We assess the heterogeneous impact of economic downturns on individuals’ decisions to bring high-technology ideas to the market in the form of new ventures. We thereby examine how worsening labor market conditions influence individuals’ opportunity costs of starting... View Details
      Keywords: Necessity Entrepreneurship; Economic Conditions; Recessions; High-tech Startups; Opportunity Costs; Entrepreneurship; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Business Startups; Information Technology; Performance; Labor
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      Conti, Annamaria, and Maria P. Roche. "Lowering the Bar? External Conditions, Opportunity Costs, and High-Tech Startup Outcomes." Organization Science 32, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 965–986.
      • December 2020 (Revised April 2021)
      • Case

      Arcos Dorados: A QSR Recovery Plan

      By: Forest Reinhardt, José B. Alvarez, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, covering Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—faced a pandemic that was disrupting the entire consumer foodservice business in 2020. With the exclusive right to own, operate, and sub-franchise McDonald’s... View Details
      Keywords: Agribusiness; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Customer Value and Value Chain; Income; Macroeconomics; Environmental Management; Environmental Sustainability; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Food; Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Logistics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategic Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Retail Industry; Latin America; Aruba; Guadeloupe; Martinique; Mexico; Panama; Costa Rica; Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Ecuador; French Guiana; Peru; Uruguay; Venezuela; Puerto Rico; Trinidad and Tobago
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      Reinhardt, Forest, José B. Alvarez, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados: A QSR Recovery Plan." Harvard Business School Case 721-023, December 2020. (Revised April 2021.)
      • October 2020
      • Case

      Fiscal Responses to COVID-19

      By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella, Vincent Pons and Galit Goldstein
      For the first half of 2020, the COVID-19 crisis seemed on the verge of spiraling out of control. The business world struggled to figure out what COVID meant for macroeconomics. Extended restrictions limiting human interaction meant an end to normal economic production,... View Details
      Keywords: Fiscal Policy; COVID; COVID-19; Economic Analysis; Economic Downturn; Economic Conditions; Economic Governance; Economic Systems; Economy; Health Pandemics; Finance; Policy; United States; Germany; France; European Union
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      Abdelal, Rawi, Rafael Di Tella, Vincent Pons, and Galit Goldstein. "Fiscal Responses to COVID-19." Harvard Business School Case 721-011, October 2020.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

      By: Shai Bernstein, Richard Townsend and Ting Xu
      Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that job seekers shifted their searches toward more established firms and away from early-stage startups, even... View Details
      Keywords: Startup Labor Market; Flight To Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Business Startups; Human Capital; Business Cycles; Health Pandemics
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      Bernstein, Shai, Richard Townsend, and Ting Xu. "Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-045, September 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • July 2020
      • Teaching Note

      COVID-19: The Global Shutdown

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeaacted... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Trade; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Economy; Policy; Governance; Economic Systems; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Sectors
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "COVID-19: The Global Shutdown." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 321-021, July 2020.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

      By: Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard Townsend
      Despite theoretical predictions to the contrary, corporate innovation is strongly pro-cyclical. In this paper, we compare innovation in the economy as a whole to that of firms backed by venture capital (VC), a source of capital associated with the most impactful young... View Details
      Keywords: Recessions; Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Patents; Business Cycles; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Howell, Sabrina T., Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend. "How Resilient Is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-115, May 2020. (Revised July 2023.)
      • May 2020 (Revised July 2020)
      • Case

      COVID-19: The Global Shutdown

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeated society,... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; Financial Crisis; Economy; Economic Systems; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Sectors; Health Pandemics
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "COVID-19: The Global Shutdown." Harvard Business School Case 320-108, May 2020. (Revised July 2020.)
      • January 2019 (Revised January 2021)
      • Case

      KITEA (A): Democratizing Furniture in Morocco

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in 2013 as Amine Benkirane, founder and CEO of the leading Moroccan furniture company KITEA, contemplates the loss his company has incurred for the first time in its 20-year history. The case then describes KITEA’s origins and provides a detailed... View Details
      Keywords: Retail; KITEA; Furniture; Furniture Industry; Entry Strategy; Responding To Entry; Localization; Competitive Interaction; Private Sector; For-Profit Firms; Business Model; Business Strategy; Strategic Planning; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Adaptation; Corporate Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Retail Industry; Africa; Morocco
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "KITEA (A): Democratizing Furniture in Morocco." Harvard Business School Case 719-420, January 2019. (Revised January 2021.)
      • March 2018 (Revised January 2019)
      • Case

      The TARP Bailouts: Saving the Banking and Automotive Industries

      By: Kristin Mugford
      Comparison of the U.S. Government response, using the $700 billion TARP fund, to downturns in the banking and auto industries during the global financial crisis. View Details
      Keywords: Bailout; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking; Government and Politics; Debt Securities; Government Legislation; Public Opinion; Auto Industry; Banking Industry; United States
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      Mugford, Kristin. "The TARP Bailouts: Saving the Banking and Automotive Industries." Harvard Business School Case 218-107, March 2018. (Revised January 2019.)
      • March 2018 (Revised August 2020)
      • Case

      Alaska Airlines: Empowering Frontline Workers to Make It Right

      By: Ranjay Gulati, Andrew O'Connell and Caroline de Lacvivier
      This case documents the ongoing efforts by Alaska Airlines to enhance its efforts to become more customer centric by empowering its employees using a service framework. It explores how the airline starts with a completely hands-off approach to empowerment in which... View Details
      Keywords: Employee Empowerment; Customer Focus and Relationships; Employees; Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Integration; Air Transportation Industry
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      Gulati, Ranjay, Andrew O'Connell, and Caroline de Lacvivier. "Alaska Airlines: Empowering Frontline Workers to Make It Right." Harvard Business School Case 418-063, March 2018. (Revised August 2020.)
      • 2017
      • Article

      Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

      By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
      The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

      By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
      The short-termism of lenders amplifies boom-bust credit cycles, leading in turn to real costs for the aggregate economy. During the U.S. housing credit boom, publicly-traded banks increased mortgage lending activity and relaxed standards much more than privately-held... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Corporate Finance; Banks and Banking
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      Falato, Antonio, Giovanni Favara, and David Scharfstein. "Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath." Working Paper.
      • February 2016 (Revised July 2017)
      • Case

      Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve

      By: David Moss and Marc Campasano
      “From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies, to the current economic crisis caused by the housing bubble, every economic downturn suffered by this country over the past century can be traced to Federal Reserve policy.” Ron Paul, a Republican from... View Details
      Keywords: Government Legislation; Central Banking; Policy; Financial Crisis; Business and Government Relations; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; United States
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      Moss, David, and Marc Campasano. "Leadership and Independence at the Federal Reserve." Harvard Business School Case 716-040, February 2016. (Revised July 2017.)
      • September 9, 2015
      • Other Article

      Leadership Lessons of the Great Recession: Options for Economic Downturns

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Leadership Lessons of the Great Recession: Options for Economic Downturns." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (September 9, 2015).
      • March 2015 (Revised March 2023)
      • Case

      Immigration Policy in Germany (A)

      By: Matthew Weinzierl, Katrina Flanagan and Alastair Su
      Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel faced economic and moral pressure to encourage greater immigration from struggling European, and especially Eurozone, countries after the economic downturn that began in 2008. In fact, it was possible that both the Euro currency union... View Details
      Keywords: Citizenship; Optimal Currency Unions; Globalized Economies and Regions; Immigration; Policy; Germany; European Union
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, Katrina Flanagan, and Alastair Su. "Immigration Policy in Germany (A)." Harvard Business School Case 715-029, March 2015. (Revised March 2023.)
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