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    • All HBS Web  (403)
      • Faculty Publications  (17)

      Dynamic Decision Making Under UncertaintyRemove Dynamic Decision Making Under Uncertainty →

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      • June 2024
      • Article

      Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

      By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke
      This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society
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      Shafrin, Jason, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington, and Richard Willke. "Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices." Forum of Health Economics and Policy 27, no. 1 (June 2024): 29–116.
      • February 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code

      By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
      In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,... View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Decisions; Judgments; Voting; Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Public Sector; Asset Pricing; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Bonds; Investment Return; Price; Government Legislation; Laws and Statutes; Bids and Bidding; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Real Estate Industry; India; Delhi
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      Mugford, Kristin, William Vrattos, and Radhika Kak. "Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code." Harvard Business School Case 222-071, February 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • January 2021
      • Case

      The FIRE Savings Calculator

      By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry
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      Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "The FIRE Savings Calculator." Harvard Business School Case 621-087, January 2021.
      • May 2020 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
      In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Demand and Consumers; Supply and Industry; Finance; Central Banking; Financial Markets; International Finance; Globalization; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Decision Making; Macroeconomics; Employment; Crisis Management; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Air Transportation Industry; Banking Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Employment Industry; Financial Services Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Public Administration Industry; Retail Industry; Service Industry; Shipping Industry; Tourism Industry; Travel Industry; Asia; China; Europe; Latin America; Africa; United States
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)." Harvard Business School Case 720-031, May 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • November 29, 2011
      • Article

      The Role of The Board in Creating a Sustainable Strategy

      By: Robert G. Eccles, Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim
      While conceptually elegant, the belief that a corporation's role is to maximize value for shareholders is under increasing challenge as society's expectations for companies change. An equally elegant new concept that takes account of these dual pressures has yet to... View Details
      Keywords: Value Creation; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Corporate Strategy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Expectations; Governing and Advisory Boards; Management Practices and Processes; Decisions; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits; Information
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      Eccles, Robert G., Ioannis Ioannou, and George Serafeim. "The Role of The Board in Creating a Sustainable Strategy." TrustLaw (November 29, 2011).
      • January 2010
      • Journal Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
      Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
      • March 2008
      • Course Overview Note

      Dynamic Markets

      By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
      The Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School is organized around the hands-on application of financial decision making in a wide variety of capital market settings. The course relies heavily on in-class simulations of a range of market settings where students... View Details
      Keywords: Value Creation; Decision Making; Capital Markets; Competitive Strategy; Profit; Applications and Software; Information; Strategy; Price; Outcome or Result; Curriculum and Courses; Theory
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      Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Dynamic Markets." Harvard Business School Course Overview Note 208-143, March 2008.​
      • September 2006 (Revised March 2012)
      • Case

      Fritidsresor Under Pressure (A): The First 10 Hours

      By: Joshua D. Margolis, Vincent Marie Dessain and Anders Sjoman
      When a tsunami hit Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004, the leadership team at a Swedish tour company must manage a devastating crisis affecting thousands of its customers and employees in Thailand. Documents the challenges the company faced in the first ten hours of... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Crisis Management; Natural Disasters; Tourism Industry; Thailand; Sweden
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      Margolis, Joshua D., Vincent Marie Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Fritidsresor Under Pressure (A): The First 10 Hours." Harvard Business School Case 407-007, September 2006. (Revised March 2012.)
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • July 2001 (Revised August 2005)
      • Case

      Medicines Company, The

      By: John T. Gourville
      It is early 2001 and the Medicines Co. just received FDA approval to market Angiomax, a blood thinner to be used during angioplasties and heart procedures. It is intended to be a better alternative to Heparin, an 80-year-old drug that costs less then $10 per dose. The... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Change Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost Management; Price; Product Marketing; Product Launch; Product Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Gourville, John T. "Medicines Company, The." Harvard Business School Case 502-006, July 2001. (Revised August 2005.)
      • March 2000
      • Exercise

      Developing Products on Internet Time: A Process Design Exercise

      By: Stefan H. Thomke
      This team exercise allows students to experience some of the dynamics of developing products in the fast-paced Internet environment and was inspired by the browser war between Netscape and Microsoft. Designed to be taught in a single class session, the exercise... View Details
      Keywords: Product Development; Internet and the Web; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Decisions; Management Practices and Processes; Integration; Organizations; Competition
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      Thomke, Stefan H. "Developing Products on Internet Time: A Process Design Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 600-121, March 2000.
      • 1996
      • Book

      Decisions under Uncertainty

      By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Decisions; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Bell, D. E., and A. Schleifer Jr. Decisions under Uncertainty. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: Course Technology Inc. (CTI), 1996.
      • 1995
      • Book

      Decisions under Uncertainty

      By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Bell, D. E., and A. Schleifer Jr. Decisions under Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: Course Technology Inc. (CTI), 1995.
      • November 1991 (Revised August 1994)
      • Background Note

      Relevant Costs and Revenues

      By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
      Develops the idea that the relevance of costs and revenues depends on what decisions are under consideration. Revenues and costs are relevant if they would be different under one decision choice than under the other. Teaching purpose: Basic background material for... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost; Revenue; Framework; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Relevant Costs and Revenues." Harvard Business School Background Note 892-010, November 1991. (Revised August 1994.)
      • February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.--1985

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co.--1985." Harvard Business School Case 289-040, February 1989. (Revised November 1991.)
      • Teaching Interest

      Decision Making Under Uncertainty

      By: David E. Bell

      Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

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