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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (175)
      • Faculty Publications  (25)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

      By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
      This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets
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      De Simone, Lisa, Peiyi Jin, and Daniel Rabetti. "Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending." Working Paper, February 2025.
      • February 2025
      • Article

      Disclosure, Humanizing, and Contextual Vulnerability of Generative AI Chatbots

      By: Julian De Freitas and I. Glenn Cohen
      In the wake of recent advancements in generative AI, regulatory bodies are trying to keep pace. One key decision is whether to require app makers to disclose the use of generative AI-powered chatbots in their products. We suggest that some generative AI-based chatbots... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Applications and Software; Well-being
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      De Freitas, Julian, and I. Glenn Cohen. "Disclosure, Humanizing, and Contextual Vulnerability of Generative AI Chatbots." New England Journal of Medicine AI 2, no. 2 (February 2025).
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      “If You’re Not There… You’re Not There”: How Art Market Platforms Induce Status Anxiety to Coerce Participation

      By: James Riley and Ezra Zuckerman Sivan
      This paper, an 18-month ethnographic investigation of international art fairs (IAFs), shows how market platforms can have a coercive effect, inducing sellers (i.e., art galleries) to participate despite ambivalence over their value and anxiety over the process by which... View Details
      Keywords: Market Participation; Status and Position; Competition; Demand and Consumers; Fine Arts Industry
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      Riley, James, and Ezra Zuckerman Sivan. "“If You’re Not There… You’re Not There”: How Art Market Platforms Induce Status Anxiety to Coerce Participation." Working Paper, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Smaller than We Thought? The Effect of Automatic Savings Policies

      By: James J. Choi, David Laibson, Jordan Cammarota, Richard Lombardo and John Beshears
      Medium- and long-run dynamics undermine the effect of automatic enrollment and default savings-rate auto-escalation on retirement savings. Our analysis of 401(k) plans incorporates the facts that employees frequently leave firms (often before matching contributions... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Finance; Saving; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Compensation and Benefits
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      Choi, James J., David Laibson, Jordan Cammarota, Richard Lombardo, and John Beshears. "Smaller than We Thought? The Effect of Automatic Savings Policies." Working Paper.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Precautionary Debt Capacity

      By: Deniz Aydin and Olivia S. Kim
      The determinants of debt capacity are a central theme in finance and macroeconomics, yet it remains unclear why firms leave some of their debt capacity unused and whether this affects investment and growth. Textbook theory suggests that firms should not leave their... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Financing and Loans
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      Aydin, Deniz, and Olivia S. Kim. "Precautionary Debt Capacity." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 2024/01. (Best Paper Award, Red Rock Finance Conference.)
      • February 2023
      • Article

      OTC Intermediaries

      By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
      We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details
      Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 2 (February 2023): 615–677.
      • Article

      Present Bias Causes and Then Dissipates Auto-enrollment Savings Effects

      By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Peter Maxted
      Present bias causes procrastination, which leads households to stick with auto-enrollment defaults. However, present bias also engenders overconsumption. Separation from each employer generates a rollover of 401(k) balances to an individual retirement account (IRA)... View Details
      Keywords: Present Bias; Procrastination; Personal Finance; Decision Making; Social Psychology; Retirement
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      Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Peter Maxted. "Present Bias Causes and Then Dissipates Auto-enrollment Savings Effects." AEA Papers and Proceedings 112 (May 2022): 136–141.
      • Article

      CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics

      By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
      We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Default Swaps; CDS Market; Non-relationship Lending; Debt Contracts; Adverse Selection; Lending Monitoring; Cross-selling
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      Kang, Jung Koo, Christopher Williams, and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman. "CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 1 (March 2021): 258–292.
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in... View Details
      Keywords: Reserves; Exchange Rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Information on Credit Market Competition: Evidence from Credit Cards

      By: C. Fritz Foley, Agustin Hurtado, Andres Liberman and Alberto Sepulveda
      We show empirically that public credit information increases competition in credit markets. We access data that cover all credit card borrowers in Chile and include details about relationship borrowers have with each lender. We exploit a natural experiment whereby a... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Credit; Financial Intermediaries; Credit; Information; Competition; Credit Cards; Financial Institutions
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      Foley, C. Fritz, Agustin Hurtado, Andres Liberman, and Alberto Sepulveda. "The Effects of Information on Credit Market Competition: Evidence from Credit Cards." Working Paper, February 2020.
      • November 2019
      • Article

      When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber and Eric J. Johnson
      When people make decisions with a pre-selected choice option—a “default”—they are more likely to select that option. Because defaults are easy to implement, they constitute one of the most widely employed tools in the choice architecture toolbox. However, to decide... View Details
      Keywords: Choice Architecture; Defaults; Default Effects; Decision Making; Behavior; Analysis
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Shannon Duncan, Elke U. Weber, and Eric J. Johnson. "When and Why Defaults Influence Decisions: A Meta-analysis of Default Effects." Behavioural Public Policy 3, no. 2 (November 2019): 159–186.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      OTC Intermediaries

      By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
      Over-the-counter (OTC) markets for financial assets are dominated by a relatively small number of core intermediaries and a large number of peripheral customers. In this paper, we develop a model of trade in a core-periphery network and estimate its key structural... View Details
      Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Eisfeldt, Andrea L., Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan, and Emil Siriwardane. "OTC Intermediaries." Working Paper, August 2018.
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Supplement

      LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) and (B) cases. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds an even more sophisticated model using the gradient boosted tree method to predict, with some probability, whether a borrower would repay or default... View Details
      Keywords: Data Analytics; Data Science; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "LendingClub (C): Gradient Boosting & Payoff Matrix." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-022, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
      • Article

      Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence

      By: Julian Zlatev, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim and Margaret A. Neale
      Current theories suggest that people understand how to exploit common biases to influence others. However, these predictions have received little empirical attention. We consider a widely studied bias with special policy relevance: the default effect, which is the... View Details
      Keywords: Social Influence; Default Effect; Nudges; Choice Architecture; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Zlatev, Julian, David P. Daniels, Hajin Kim, and Margaret A. Neale. "Default Neglect in Attempts at Social Influence." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 52 (December 26, 2017).
      • Article

      The Impact of Forward-Looking Metrics on Employee Decision-Making: The Case of Customer Lifetime Value

      By: Pablo Casas-Arce, Asis Martinez Jerez and V.G. Narayanan
      This paper analyzes the effects of forward-looking metrics on employee decision-making. We use data from a bank that started providing branch managers with the customer lifetime value (CLV)—an estimate of the future value of the customer relationship—of mortgage... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Lifetime Value; Forward-looking Metrics; Employees; Decision Making; Information; Customer Value and Value Chain; Banks and Banking; Mortgages; Outcome or Result
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      Casas-Arce, Pablo, Asis Martinez Jerez, and V.G. Narayanan. "The Impact of Forward-Looking Metrics on Employee Decision-Making: The Case of Customer Lifetime Value." Accounting Review 92, no. 3 (May 2017): 31–56.
      • August 2015
      • Article

      Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

      By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Financing and Loans; Trade
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      Antràs, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices." Journal of Political Economy 123, no. 4 (August 2015): 853–901. (Revised May 2014. Online Appendix.)
      • 2014
      • Book

      Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World

      By: John P. Kotter
      Based on the award-winning article in Harvard Business Review, from global leadership expert John Kotter. It's a familiar scene in organizations today: a new competitive threat or a big opportunity emerges. You quickly create a strategic initiative in response and... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Organizational Structure
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      Kotter, John P. Accelerate: Building Strategic Agility for a Faster-Moving World. Harvard Business Review Press, 2014.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of Forward-Looking Metrics on Employee Decision Making

      By: Pablo Casas-Arce, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez and V.G. Narayanan
      This paper analyzes the effects of providing forward-looking metrics on employee decision making. We use data from a southern European bank that, in April 2002, started providing its branch managers with customer lifetime value (CLV) information about mortgage... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Decision Choices and Conditions; Mortgages; Employees; Information; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Service Delivery; Banking Industry; Europe
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      Casas-Arce, Pablo, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez, and V.G. Narayanan. "The Impact of Forward-Looking Metrics on Employee Decision Making." Working Paper, 2011.
      • fall 2010
      • Article

      Lawsuits and Empire: On the Enforcement of Sovereign Debt in Latin America

      By: Faisal Z. Ahmed, Laura Alfaro and Noel Maurer
      The re-occurring phenomenon of sovereign default has prompted an enormous theoretical and empirical literature. Most of this research has focused on why countries ever chose to pay their debts (or why private creditors ever expected repayment). The problem originates... View Details
      Keywords: Lawsuits and Litigation; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Debt Securities; Motivation and Incentives; Markets; Equity; Banking Industry; Latin America
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      Ahmed, Faisal Z., Laura Alfaro, and Noel Maurer. "Lawsuits and Empire: On the Enforcement of Sovereign Debt in Latin America." Law and Contemporary Problems 73, no. 4 (fall 2010): 39–46.
      • 2009
      • Working Paper

      Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

      By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton
      The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details
      Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States
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      Khandani, Amir E., Andrew W. Lo, and Robert C. Merton. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15362, September 2009.
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