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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (541)
      • Faculty Publications  (69)

      Decision MechanismsRemove Decision Mechanisms →

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      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Group Size and Its Impact on Diversity-Related Perceptions and Hiring Decisions in Homogeneous Groups

      By: Aneesh Rai, Edward H. Chang, Erika Kirgios and Katherine L. Milkman
      Why do some homogeneous groups face backlash for lacking diversity, whereas others escape censure? We show that a homogeneous group’s size changes how it is perceived and whether decision makers pursue greater diversity in its ranks. We theorize that people make... View Details
      Keywords: Diversity; Perception; Decision Making; Groups and Teams; Selection and Staffing; Size
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      Rai, Aneesh, Edward H. Chang, Erika Kirgios, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Group Size and Its Impact on Diversity-Related Perceptions and Hiring Decisions in Homogeneous Groups." Organization Science 35, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 1990–2015.
      • 2024
      • Article

      Political Polarization and Finance

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and... View Details
      Keywords: Government and Politics; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Governance
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Polarization and Finance." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 413–434.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

      By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
      Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
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      Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
      • October 2024
      • Article

      Strategic Decision Making at Platform Transitions: The Case of Nokia (2010-2011).

      By: Timo O. Vuori and Michael Tushman
      We studied Nokia’s decision to adopt the Windows platform in 2011 to induce new theory on the emotional dynamics of incumbent firms’ strategic decision making at platform transitions. We find that platform companies’ entry into an established industry activates a... View Details
      Keywords: Emotions; Technology Adoption; Corporate Strategy; Transition
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      Vuori, Timo O., and Michael Tushman. "Strategic Decision Making at Platform Transitions: The Case of Nokia (2010-2011)." Strategic Management Journal 45, no. 10 (October 2024): 2018–2062.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      How Real Is Hypothetical?: A High-Stakes Test of the Allais Paradox

      By: Uri Gneezy, Yoram Halevy, Brian Hall, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven
      Researchers in behavioral and experimental economics often argue that only incentive-compatible mechanisms can elicit effort and truthful responses from participants. Others argue that participants make less-biased decisions when the stakes are sufficiently high.... View Details
      Keywords: Research; Behavioral Finance; Economics; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias
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      Gneezy, Uri, Yoram Halevy, Brian Hall, Theo Offerman, and Jeroen van de Ven. "How Real Is Hypothetical? A High-Stakes Test of the Allais Paradox." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-005, August 2024.
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • May 2024 (Revised January 2025)
      • Technical Note

      Health Care Payment in the United States

      By: Robert S. Huckman, Jeff Charca and Craig Garthwaite
      This document provides an overview of how various actors (e.g., physicians, hospitals, and other health care providers) are paid in the United States health care system. It is particularly focused on features of the payment system that contribute to strategic decisions... View Details
      Keywords: Compensation and Benefits; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Health Industry
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      Huckman, Robert S., Jeff Charca, and Craig Garthwaite. "Health Care Payment in the United States." Harvard Business School Technical Note 624-071, May 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?

      By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
      We develop two new, simple measures to quantify active fund decisions at the individual position level. The intuition is to separate passive rebalancing induced by flows and position changes from active rebalancing decisions. We find that additive active rebalancing --... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Financial Management
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      Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Do Active Funds Do Better in What They Trade?" Working Paper, November 2023.
      • November–December 2023
      • Article

      Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment

      By: Ethan S. Bernstein, Jesse C. Shore and Alice J. Jang
      We study the connection between communication network structure and an organization’s collective adaptability to a shifting environment. Research has shown that network centralization—the degree to which communication flows disproportionately through one or more... View Details
      Keywords: Network Centralization; Collective Intelligence; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Communication; Decision Making; Networks; Adaptation
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      Bernstein, Ethan S., Jesse C. Shore, and Alice J. Jang. "Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment." Organization Science 34, no. 6 (November–December 2023): 2064–2096.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Stories, Statistics and Memory

      By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
      For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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      Graeber, Thomas, Christopher Roth, and Florian Zimmermann. "Stories, Statistics and Memory." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • October 15, 2021
      • Article

      Virtuous Victims

      By: Jillian J. Jordan and Maryam Kouchaki
      How do people perceive the moral character of victims? We find, across a range of transgressions, that people frequently see victims of wrongdoing as more moral than non-victims who have behaved identically. Across 15 experiments (total n = 9,355), we document this... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Judgment; Restorative Justice; Punishment; Compensation; Person Perception; Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Perception
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      Jordan, Jillian J., and Maryam Kouchaki. "Virtuous Victims." Science Advances 7, no. 42 (October 15, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing

      By: Amitabh Chandra, Evan Flack and Ziad Obermeyer
      We use the design of Medicare’s prescription drug benefit program to demonstrate three facts about the health consequences of cost-sharing. First, we show that an as-if-random increase of 33.6% in out-of-pocket price (11.0 percentage points (p.p.) change in... View Details
      Keywords: Cost-sharing; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Health; Consumer Behavior
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      Chandra, Amitabh, Evan Flack, and Ziad Obermeyer. "The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28439, February 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information... View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • October 2020
      • Article

      Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Long-Term Performance

      By: Diwas S. KC, Bradley R. Staats, Maryam Kouchaki and Francesca Gino
      How individuals manage, organize, and complete their tasks is central to operations management. Recent research in operations focuses on how under conditions of increasing workload individuals can decrease their service time, up to a point, in order to complete work... View Details
      Keywords: Healthcare; Knowledge Work; Discretion; Workload; Employees; Health Care and Treatment; Decision Making; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Productivity
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      KC, Diwas S., Bradley R. Staats, Maryam Kouchaki, and Francesca Gino. "Task Selection and Workload: A Focus on Completing Easy Tasks Hurts Long-Term Performance." Management Science 66, no. 10 (October 2020).
      • Article

      Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

      By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details
      Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement
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      Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Draw Near to Go Far: The Role of Convergence in Capitalizing on Exploration

      By: Carolyn Fu
      Organizations are often advised to engage heavily in exploration in order to succeed – to cast a wide net for diverse solutions that are superior to what they currently exploit. However, what is the organization to do when the fruits of its exploration are inconsistent... View Details
      Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Learning; Knowledge Acquisition; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Fu, Carolyn. "Draw Near to Go Far: The Role of Convergence in Capitalizing on Exploration." Working Paper, April 2020.
      • February 2020 (Revised March 2020)
      • Case

      Managing Blackout at Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) (A)

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Gamze Yücaoğlu and Youssef Abdel Aal
      The case opens in 2017 as Tim Murray, CEO of Aluminum Bahrain (Alba), the largest single-site aluminum smelter in the world outside China and a major contributor to the Bahraini economy, was contemplating the recovery options as the company was facing the most severe... View Details
      Keywords: Aluminum; General Management; Cultural Change; Change Management; Crisis Management; Decision Making; Organizational Culture; Safety; Leadership; Emerging Markets; Bahrain; Middle East
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Gamze Yücaoğlu, and Youssef Abdel Aal. "Managing Blackout at Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) (A)." Harvard Business School Case 320-056, February 2020. (Revised March 2020.)
      • February 2020
      • Supplement

      Managing Blackout at Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) (B)

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Gamze Yücaoğlu and Youssef Abdel Aal
      The case opens in 2017 as Tim Murray, CEO of Aluminum Bahrain (Alba), the largest single-site aluminum smelter in the world outside China and a major contributor to the Bahraini economy, was contemplating the recovery options as the company was facing the most severe... View Details
      Keywords: Aluminum Industry; General Management; Cultural Change; Change Management; Crisis Management; Decision Making; Organizational Culture; Safety; Leadership; Emerging Markets; Bahrain; Middle East
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Gamze Yücaoğlu, and Youssef Abdel Aal. "Managing Blackout at Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 320-057, February 2020.
      • August 2019 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      Family Matters: Governance at the Zamil Group

      By: Christina R. Wing, Suraj Srinivasan and Esel Çekin
      This case focuses on a large Saudi Arabian industrial conglomerate and family business Zamil Group’s corporate and family governance journey. The 12 sons of the founder led and grew the group successfully after taking over from their father in 1961. The secret to their... View Details
      Keywords: Middle East; Family Ownership; Family-owned Business; Saudi Arabia; Family Business; Governance; Organizational Structure; Values and Beliefs; Steel Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; Bahrain
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      Wing, Christina R., Suraj Srinivasan, and Esel Çekin. "Family Matters: Governance at the Zamil Group." Harvard Business School Case 620-009, August 2019. (Revised March 2022.)
      • April 2019 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Clear Link Technologies, LLC: Driving Sales with Peer Effects

      By: Christopher Stanton, Richard Saouma and Olivia Hull
      The importance of a good peer or coworker is widely discussed, but understanding the glue that makes coworkers valuable is less understood. This case sheds light on the importance of peers and the practices and environments that make a group greater than the sum of its... View Details
      Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Interactive Communication; Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Training; Design; Compensation and Benefits; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Sharing; Human Capital; Working Conditions; Measurement and Metrics; Outcome or Result; Performance; Performance Improvement; Research; Sales; Salesforce Management; Motivation and Incentives; Telecommunications Industry; Utah; United States
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      Stanton, Christopher, Richard Saouma, and Olivia Hull. "Clear Link Technologies, LLC: Driving Sales with Peer Effects." Harvard Business School Case 819-072, April 2019. (Revised January 2025.)
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