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      Decision BiasesRemove Decision Biases →

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      • January 2025
      • Module Note

      Understanding and Addressing Gender Gaps

      By: Katherine Coffman
      This module provides a framework for students to analyze how gender stereotypes, through their impact on beliefs about others and beliefs about ourselves, contribute to gender gaps in the workplace. The module proceeds in three parts. First, through a case and an... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Gender; Leadership; Management Practices and Processes; Prejudice and Bias
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      Coffman, Katherine. "Understanding and Addressing Gender Gaps." Harvard Business School Module Note 925-021, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
      Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Sophia Pan. "AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital." Harvard Business School Case 225-053, January 2025.
      • May–June 2024
      • Article

      Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Karim R. Lakhani and Roberto Fernandez
      Competence development in digital technologies, analytics, and artificial intelligence is increasingly important to all types of organizations and their workforce. Universities and corporations are investing heavily in developing training programs, at all tenure... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Gender; Training; Recruitment; Personal Development and Career
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Karim R. Lakhani, and Roberto Fernandez. "Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs." Organization Science 35, no. 3 (May–June 2024): 911–927.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration Under Covariate Shift

      By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo and Kris Ferreira
      Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). These outliers often originate from covariate shift,... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, and Kris Ferreira. "Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration Under Covariate Shift." Working Paper, February 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic

      By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl
      While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how leader... View Details
      Keywords: Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
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      Gagete-Miranda, Jessica, Lucas Argentieri Mariani, and Paula Rettl. "Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023.
      • September 2023
      • Exercise

      Irrationality in Action: Decision-Making Exercise

      By: Alison Wood Brooks, Michael I. Norton and Oliver Hauser
      This teaching exercise highlights the obstacle of biases in decision-making, allowing students to generate examples of potentially poor decision-making rooted in abundant and unwanted bias. This exercise has two parts: a pre-class, online survey in which students... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making
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      Brooks, Alison Wood, Michael I. Norton, and Oliver Hauser. "Irrationality in Action: Decision-Making Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 924-007, September 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How People Use Statistics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance
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      Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Karim R. Lakhani and Roberto Fernandez
      Competence development in digital technologies, analytics, and artificial intelligence is increasingly important to all types of organizations and their workforce. Universities and corporations are investing heavily in developing training programs, at all tenure... View Details
      Keywords: STEM; Selection and Staffing; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Training; Equality and Inequality; Competency and Skills
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Karim R. Lakhani, and Roberto Fernandez. "Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-066, April 2023. (Accepted by Organization Science.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko
      We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details
      Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Sergey Chernenko. "The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities." Working Paper, April 2023.
      • 2022
      • Chapter

      Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning Toward the Greater Good

      By: Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang and Max Bazerman
      In A Theory of Justice, John Rawls employed the ‘veil of Ignorance’ as a moral reasoning device designed to promote impartial thinking. By imagining the choices of decision-makers who are blind to biasing information, one might see more clearly the organizing... View Details
      Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making
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      Greene, Joshua D., Karen Huang, and Max Bazerman. "Redirecting Rawlsian Reasoning Toward the Greater Good." Chap. 15 in The Oxford Handbook of Moral Psychology, edited by Manuel Vargas and John M. Doris, 246–261. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2022.
      • May 2022 (Revised June 2024)
      • Case

      LOOP: Driving Change in Auto Insurance Pricing

      By: Elie Ofek and Alicia Dadlani
      John Henry and Carey Anne Nadeau, co-founders and co-CEOs of LOOP, an insurtech startup based in Austin, Texas, were on a mission to modernize the archaic $250 billion automobile insurance market. They sought to create equitably priced insurance by eliminating pricing... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Growth and Development Strategy; Customer Relationship Management; Price; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Ofek, Elie, and Alicia Dadlani. "LOOP: Driving Change in Auto Insurance Pricing." Harvard Business School Case 522-073, May 2022. (Revised June 2024.)
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
      This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling.... View Details
      Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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      Cole, Shawn A., Martin Abel, and Bilal Zia. "Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning." World Bank Economic Review 35, no. 3 (October 2021): 745–763.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions

      By: Katherine B. Coffman, Clio Bryant Flikkema and Olga Shurchkov
      We explore how groups deliberate and decide on ideas in an experiment with communication. We find that gender biases play a significant role in which group members are chosen to answer on behalf of the group. Conditional on the quality of their ideas, individuals are... View Details
      Keywords: Gender Differences; Stereotypes; Teams; Economic Experiments; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Groups and Teams; Perception
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      Coffman, Katherine B., Clio Bryant Flikkema, and Olga Shurchkov. "Gender Stereotypes in Deliberation and Team Decisions." Games and Economic Behavior 129 (September 2021): 329–349.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?

      By: Benjamin Enke, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman and Jeroen van de Ven
      Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives—as present in relevant economic decisions—on cognitive biases is scant. This paper tests the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base rate... View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Incentives; Motivation and Incentives; Decision Making; Performance
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      Enke, Benjamin, Uri Gneezy, Brian Hall, David Martin, Vadim Nelidov, Theo Offerman, and Jeroen van de Ven. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-102, March 2021.
      • March 2021 (Revised September 2021)
      • Case

      Applied: Using Behavioral Science to Debias Hiring

      By: Ashley Whillans and Jeff Polzer
      The UK government’s Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) needed to hire a new associate and were trying to increase the diversity of their job candidates. This decision was based on academic research showing that recruiters and managers often fell into common traps like... View Details
      Keywords: Hiring; Bias; Behavioral Science; Selection and Staffing; Diversity; Prejudice and Bias; Information Technology; Recruitment
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      Whillans, Ashley, and Jeff Polzer. "Applied: Using Behavioral Science to Debias Hiring." Harvard Business School Case 921-046, March 2021. (Revised September 2021.) (https://www.beapplied.com/.)
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment

      By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
      This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details
      Keywords: Visual Perception; Bayesian Modeling; Perception; Judgments
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      Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Mitigates Self-Serving Bias in Resource Allocation During the COVID-19 Crisis

      By: Karen Huang, Regan Bernhard, Netta Barak-Corren, Max Bazerman and Joshua D. Greene
      The COVID-19 crisis has forced healthcare professionals to make tragic decisions concerning which patients to save. Furthermore, the COVID-19 crisis has foregrounded the influence of self-serving bias in debates on how to allocate scarce resources. A utilitarian... View Details
      Keywords: Self-serving Bias; Procedural Justice; Bioethics; COVID-19; Fairness; Health Pandemics; Resource Allocation; Decision Making
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      Huang, Karen, Regan Bernhard, Netta Barak-Corren, Max Bazerman, and Joshua D. Greene. "Veil-of-Ignorance Reasoning Mitigates Self-Serving Bias in Resource Allocation During the COVID-19 Crisis." Judgment and Decision Making 16, no. 1 (January 2021): 1–19.
      • Article

      Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses

      By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details
      Keywords: Predictive Models; Decision Making; Framework; Mathematical Methods
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      Rawal, Kaivalya, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 33 (2020).
      • October 2020 (Revised May 2023)
      • Exercise

      SenseAim Technologies: Pricing to Win

      By: Elie Ofek, Eyal Biyalogorsky, Marco Bertini and Oded Koenigsberg
      This exercise serves to help students understand the proper role and use of costs in a firm’s pricing decisions. The exercise is designed such that the learning of students evolves across a classroom session, starting from understanding which costs are relevant when... View Details
      Keywords: Pricing Decisions; Cost; Information; Price; Decision Making
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      Ofek, Elie, Eyal Biyalogorsky, Marco Bertini, and Oded Koenigsberg. "SenseAim Technologies: Pricing to Win." Harvard Business School Exercise 521-049, October 2020. (Revised May 2023.)
      • August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
      • Background Note

      A Note on Ethical Analysis

      By: Nien-hê Hsieh
      To engage in ethical analysis is to answer such questions as “What is the right thing to do?” “What does it mean to be a good person?” “How should I live my life?” Ethical analysis, on its own, is often not adequate for doing the right thing or being a good... View Details
      Keywords: Ethics; Framework; Decision Making; Prejudice and Bias
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      Hsieh, Nien-hê. "A Note on Ethical Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 321-038, August 2020. (Revised December 2020.)
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