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    • All HBS Web  (170)
      • Faculty Publications  (47)

      Currency RiskRemove Currency Risk →

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      • January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
      • Case

      Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience

      By: A. Zelleke and Ahmed Dahawy
      Egypt has long been a pivotal force in the Middle East and North Africa. Located at a crossroads of global trade routes, the country was a strategic partner for numerous regional and global powers. However, a substantial currency devaluation in 2016 brought many... View Details
      Keywords: Egypt; Economy; Business; Country; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Culture; Egypt
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      Zelleke, A., and Ahmed Dahawy. "Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience." Harvard Business School Case 325-090, January 2025. (Revised April 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?

      By: Robin Greenwood and Alex Cheema-Fox
      We use monthly portfolio data from one of the world’s largest custodian banks, with over $40 trillion assets under custody, to study how global portfolio investors hedge foreign exchange risk in their equity and fixed income portfolios over the past 25 years. The data... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Alex Cheema-Fox. "How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?" Working Paper, October 2024.
      • September 2024
      • Case

      InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility

      By: John Macomber, Namrata Arora and Maagatha Kalavadakken
      Around the world, large infrastructure projects are frequently stymied by the high cost and high uncertainty of the project inception phase: the research and engineering and planning prior to financial close and start of construction. Could there be a new kind of... View Details
      Keywords: Infrastructure; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Cost; Cash Flow; Capital; Assets; Financial Markets; Financial Strategy; Insurance; Energy; Product Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Credit; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry; Banking Industry; Africa; Nigeria
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      Macomber, John, Namrata Arora, and Maagatha Kalavadakken. "InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility." Harvard Business School Case 225-027, September 2024.
      • January 2024
      • Technical Note

      Hedging Currency Risk of Foreign Investments

      By: Wenxin Du and Luis M. Viceira
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      Du, Wenxin, and Luis M. Viceira. "Hedging Currency Risk of Foreign Investments." Harvard Business School Technical Note 224-039, January 2024.
      • September 2023
      • Case

      Diamond Standard

      By: Lauren H. Cohen, Zhaoheng Gong and Grace Headinger
      Cormac Kinney, Founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, was on a mission to transform the U.S. diamond market through unlocking the precious gems as market-traded assets. As a serial FinTech entrepreneur, he hoped to add an additional service to his vault: Carats. The... View Details
      Keywords: Tokenization; Fintech; Cryptocurrency; Liquidity; Digital; Rare Earth Minerals; Decentralized; Crypto Economy; Financial Product; Metals; Diamonds; Commodity; Assets; Financial Instruments; Financial Institutions; Financial Markets; Investment; Technological Innovation; Natural Resources; Business Startups; Currency; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren H., Zhaoheng Gong, and Grace Headinger. "Diamond Standard." Harvard Business School Case 224-009, September 2023.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

      By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber
      Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance
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      Du, Wenxin, Benjamin Hebert, and Amy Wang Huber. "Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?" Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 4 (April 2023): 1464–1507.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

      By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
      Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters
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      Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency use can be a source of risk associated with currency mismatches, which firms can hedge using FX derivatives. This paper uncovers five novel facts about firms’ use of foreign currency (FX) derivatives employing a unique dataset covering the universe of... View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
      • May 2021 (Revised September 2021)
      • Case

      Accounting for Bitcoin at Tesla

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Siyu Zhang
      On February 8, 2021, Tesla revealed, through its 10-K filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that it had purchased $1.5 billion of Bitcoin, totaling 7.5% of the company’s cash, and that it planned to accept payments in the cryptocurrency soon. These... View Details
      Keywords: Bitcoin; Accounting; Currency; Communication Intention and Meaning; Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., and Siyu Zhang. "Accounting for Bitcoin at Tesla." Harvard Business School Case 121-074, May 2021. (Revised September 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of... View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Currency Hedging; FX Derivatives; Foreign Currency Debt; Currency Mismatch; Trade Credit; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

      By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger
      We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Currency; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Du, Wenxin, Carolin Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3097–3138.
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times

      By: Caroline M. Elkins, Juan Alcácer, Alpana Thapar and Youssef Abdel Aal
      After 15 years of steady growth and expansion, Edita, a leading Egyptian snack producer, faced a series of challenges in the wake of the Arab Spring. In January 2011, the Egyptian Revolution sparked political and economic turmoil that reflected the waves of protest and... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; Business or Company Management; Price; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Expansion; Currency; Food and Beverage Industry; Egypt; Africa; Middle East
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      Elkins, Caroline M., Juan Alcácer, Alpana Thapar, and Youssef Abdel Aal. "Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times." Harvard Business School Case 320-026, November 2019.
      • June 2018
      • Article

      Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

      By: Wenxin Du, Alexander Tepper and Adrien Verdelhan
      We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not... View Details
      Keywords: Interest Rates; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Price
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      Du, Wenxin, Alexander Tepper, and Adrien Verdelhan. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 915–957.
      • February 2018
      • Case

      Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments

      By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding
      The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and... View Details
      Keywords: Pension Fund Investing; Infrastucture; Power/Energy; Credit Enhancement; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Investment Funds; Emerging Markets; Nigeria; Africa
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      Macomber, John, and Pippa Tubman Armerding. "Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments." Harvard Business School Case 218-071, February 2018.
      • June 2016
      • Article

      Local Currency Sovereign Risk

      By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
      We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets
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      Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk." Journal of Finance 71, no. 3 (June 2016): 1027–1070.
      • September 2012 (Revised July 2013)
      • Case

      Can the Eurozone Survive?

      By: Dante Roscini and Jonathan Schlefer
      The sovereign debt crisis that took Greece by storm in 2010 began to spread to other European markets. Within a few months Ireland and Portugal had also lost access to the sovereign debt markets and had to rely on supranational loans for their financing. The risk of... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Debt Crisis; Currency Areas; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; International Relations; Banking Industry; European Union; Germany; France; Italy; Spain; Greece; Portugal
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      Roscini, Dante, and Jonathan Schlefer. "Can the Eurozone Survive?" Harvard Business School Case 713-034, September 2012. (Revised July 2013.)
      • January – March 2012
      • Article

      Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
      • Article

      How Institutional Investors Frame Their Losses: Evidence on Dynamic Loss Aversion from Currency Portfolios

      By: Kenneth A. Froot, John Arabadjis, Sonya Cates and Stephen Lawrence
      Currency investors exhibit a tendency to cut risk by pairing both longs and shorts following losses and a weaker tendency to add risk following gains. By differentiating between position level, portfolio level, and aggregate cross-portfolio losses in currency... View Details
      Keywords: Loss Aversion; Decision Choices and Conditions; Currency; Investment; Risk Management; Behavioral Finance
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      Froot, Kenneth A., John Arabadjis, Sonya Cates, and Stephen Lawrence. "How Institutional Investors Frame Their Losses: Evidence on Dynamic Loss Aversion from Currency Portfolios." Journal of Portfolio Management 38, no. 1 (Fall 2011): 60–68.
      • 2010
      • Chapter

      The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Ricardo Gimeno
      This article explores the demand for the euro for risk management purposes and the evidence of stock market integration in the euro area. We define a reserve currency as one that investors demand either because it helps them hedge real interest risk and inflation risk,... View Details
      Keywords: Volatility; Inflation and Deflation; Capital Markets; Currency; Stocks; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Ricardo Gimeno. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency for Global Investors." Chap. 4 in Spain and the Euro. The First Ten Years, 149–178. Madrid, Spain: Banco de España, 2010.
      • February 2010
      • Article

      Global Currency Hedging

      By: John Y. Campbell, Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros and Luis M. Viceira
      Over the period 1975 to 2005, the US dollar (particularly in relation to the Canadian dollar) and the euro and Swiss franc (particularly in the second half of the period) have moved against world equity markets. Thus these currencies should be attractive to... View Details
      Keywords: Currency; Equity; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Globalized Markets and Industries; Risk Management
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      Campbell, John Y., Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros, and Luis M. Viceira. "Global Currency Hedging." Journal of Finance 65, no. 1 (February 2010): 87–121.
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