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- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- Article
Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers
By: Marco Bertini, Daniel Halbheer and Oded Koenigsberg
We present a theory of price and quality decisions by managers who are self-serving. In the theory, firms stress the price or quality of their products, but not both. Accounting for this, managers exploit any uncertainty about the cause of market outcomes to credit... View Details
Keywords: Causal Reasoning; Self-serving Bias; Strategic Orientation; Managerial Decision-making; Price; Quality; Decision Making; Theory
Bertini, Marco, Daniel Halbheer, and Oded Koenigsberg. "Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers." International Journal of Research in Marketing 37, no. 2 (June 2020): 236–257.
- November 2022
- Article
The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp
By: Reshmaan Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane and Fatima Zahra
Employment may be important to wellbeing for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee camps in Bangladesh. We involve 745 individuals in a field experiment with three arms: a... View Details
Hussam, Reshmaan, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and Fatima Zahra. "The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp." American Economic Review 112, no. 11 (November 2022): 3694–3724.
- 04 Jun 2012
- Research & Ideas
The Business of Life
says. "The reality is that the only reason you're interested in either of these things is that you're interested in finding the truth. We spend most of our waking hours in our professions, but if we can't allow success in our professions... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- July–August 2024
- Article
Disclosing Downstream Emissions
By: Robert S. Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna
An increasing number of companies are using the E-liability carbon-accounting method as an important tool for tracking progress toward reducing global emissions in their supply chains. The system does not require formal accounting for downstream emissions—those... View Details
Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Environmental Accounting; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Corporate Disclosure; Environmental Sustainability
Kaplan, Robert S., and Karthik Ramanna. "Disclosing Downstream Emissions." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 124–133.
- 2016
- Working Paper
Delaying Firearm Purchases Reduces Gun Violence
By: Michael Luca, Deepak Malhotra and Christopher Poliquin
Handgun waiting periods are laws that impose a two to seven-day delay between the purchase and delivery of a firearm. While states might institute waiting periods for different reasons (e.g., to allow for background checks), these delays also create a “cooling off”... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Principles and Content for Downstream Emissions Disclosures
By: Robert S. Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna
In a previous paper, we proposed the E-liability carbon accounting algorithm for companies to measure and subsequently reduce their own and their suppliers’ emissions. Some investors and stakeholders, however, want companies to also be accountable for downstream... View Details
Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Disclosure; Carbon Footprint; Climate Change; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Disclosure; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact
Kaplan, Robert S., and Karthik Ramanna. "Principles and Content for Downstream Emissions Disclosures." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-050, January 2024.
- 2025
- Working Paper
How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as
to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. This
study contributes to answer these questions by testing whether voters react to cues
by charismatic... View Details
Keywords: Elites; Public Engagement; Politics; Political Affiliation; Political Campaigns; Political Influence; Political Leadership; Political Economy; Survey Research; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; COVID; Cognitive Psychology; Cognitive Biases; Political Elections; Voting; Power and Influence; Identity; Behavior; Latin America; Brazil
Rettl, Paula. "How Do Voters Respond to Cues by Charismatic Leaders? Evidence from Brazil." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-022, October 2023. (Revised June 2025.)
- October 2007
- Article
The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market
By: Anita Elberse and Bharat N. Anand
One of the most visible and publicized trends in the movie industry is the escalation in movie advertising expenditures over time. Yet, the returns to movie advertising are poorly understood. The main reason is that disentangling the causal effect of advertising on... View Details
Keywords: Advertising; Stocks; Investment Return; Price; Revenue; Quality; Mathematical Methods; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Elberse, Anita, and Bharat N. Anand. "The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market." Information Economics and Policy 19, nos. 3-4 (October 2007): 319–343. (Special Issue on Economics of the Media.)
- 20 Jan 2010
- First Look
First Look: Jan. 20
well documented, little is known about why norms of silencing conflict evolve. To explore this evolution, we draw on an ethnographic study that spanned the entire life of a dot.com, starting with its founding and ending with its sale to a larger company. Distilling our... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 24 Oct 2011
- Research & Ideas
The Yelp Factor: Are Consumer Reviews Good for Business?
reviews over professional critics, but also because of its historical database that tracks every review. Luca compared the ratings over time with revenue data from the state of Washington to gauge how reviews impacted restaurants' bottom lines. In order to establish... View Details
- 14 Jun 2010
- Research & Ideas
The Hard Work of Measuring Social Impact
multiple actors and causal mechanisms that are still poorly understood. In such cases, it can still be useful to try to measure what an organization is doing and whether its strategies are working to influence societal change. But there's... View Details
Keywords: by Julia Hanna
- 08 Nov 2011
- First Look
First Look: Nov. 8
markets (rather than just worse firms). This is true even for the most experienced VCs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the flood of capital in hot markets also plays a causal role in shifting investments to more novel startups-by... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 20 Oct 2010
- Op-Ed
Export Competitiveness: Reversing the Logic
not only generically more attractive in terms of the prosperity level they can support - the perspective taken by the traditional strategic industrial policy - but also are within reasonable reach for a country given its existing industry... View Details
Keywords: by Christian Ketels
- 05 Nov 2012
- Research & Ideas
What Wall Street Doesn’t Understand About International Trade
Cohen. The research team reasoned that firms would most likely export products and services to countries where they had strong informational ties—and that people with personal knowledge of those countries could help firms to form those... View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- 31 Dec 2012
- Research & Ideas
Most Popular Stories of 2012
brands in the world. Professor Anita Elberse discusses the keys to Sir Alex's long-time success. 7. Why Is Trust So Hard to Achieve in Management? Published: July 5, 2012 There are many reasons for the trust gap between employees and... View Details
Keywords: by Staff
- 28 Jul 2014
- Research & Ideas
Eyes Shut: The Consequences of Not Noticing
bankrupt. Consequently many of the plaintiffs turned their attention to Walmart and sued the retailer as a causal agent in the deaths and injuries. Given that more than one party was involved in Walmart's sale of unsafe gas cans, who is... View Details
- 17 Jun 2019
- Research & Ideas
What Hospitals Must Learn to Compete
serve all patients, all needs, and through all channels." Raffaella Sadun: I would add that their lack of focus might be the reason why it’s so hard for them to actually excel in implementation. The hospital is a complex,... View Details
- 16 Oct 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018
strong complementarity, but it can arise for other reasons as well. Transaction cost economics and property rights theory advise that strong complements should be placed under unified governance, for example, through common ownership.... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 09 Jun 2009
- First Look
First Look: June 9
rationales for forming the relationship) are endogenous to the matching process, while others (those that are incidental to the formation of the relationship) may be conditionally exogenous, thus enabling causal estimation of peer... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace