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- August 5, 2025
- Article
Data-driven Equation Discovery Reveals Nonlinear Reinforcement Learning in Humans
By: Kyle J. LaFollette, Janni Yuval, Roey Schurr, David Melnikoff and Amit Goldenberg
Computational models of reinforcement learning (RL) have significantly contributed to our understanding of human behavior and decision-making. Traditional RL models, however, often adopt a linear approach to updating reward expectations, potentially oversimplifying the... View Details
- July 2025
- Case
The New York Liberty: Building the Business of Women’s Basketball
By: Anita Elberse and Mackenzi Curtin
In May 2025, Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) team the New York Liberty raised their 2024 championship banner. The team’s owners, Clara Wu Tsai and her husband Joseph Tsai, had acquired the Liberty in 2019, when the once flourishing team had seemingly hit... View Details
- July 2025
- Article
Extraverts Reap Greater Social Rewards from Passion Because They Express Passion More Frequently and More Diversely
By: Kai Krautter, Anabel Büchner and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Passion is stereotypically expressed through animated facial expressions, energetic body movements, varied tone, and pitch—and met with interpersonal benefits. However, these capture only a subset of passion expressions that are more common for extraverts. Indeed, in... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James D. Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- June 2025
- Article
Who Benefits from Online Gig Economy Platforms?
By: Christopher T. Stanton and Catherine Thomas
Online labor platforms for short-term, remote work have many more job seekers than available jobs. Despite their relative abundance, workers capture a substantial share of the surplus from transactions. We draw this conclusion from demand estimates that imply workers'... View Details
- May–June 2025
- Article
Slowly Varying Regression Under Sparsity
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Michael Lingzhi Li and Omar Skali Lami
We consider the problem of parameter estimation in slowly varying regression models with sparsity constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer optimization problem and demonstrate that it can be reformulated exactly as a binary convex optimization problem... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Transferability MATTRs: Towards Understanding Antecedents of Strategic Licensing
By: Dafna F. Bearson and Maria P. Roche
This paper examines the antecedents of firms’ decisions to license intellectual property
(IP). We propose a conceptual framework emphasizing two critical factors: (1) transferability,
which we define as the ease of moving knowledge embodied in inventions across
firm... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
Metaphysic AI: Rethinking the Value of Human Expertise
By: Zoë B. Cullen, Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
In early 2025, Thomas Graham, CEO of Metaphysic, a leading AI generative video company confronted fundamental questions about who should control digital identity in a world where AI could perfectly recreate human likeness. Founded in 2021, Metaphysic first rose to fame... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden
We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Real Madrid Club de Fútbol
By: Anita Elberse, Juan Pasquín and Íñigo Pasquín
On June 1, 2024, Spanish soccer club Real Madrid captures its fifteenth Champions League title—more than double the tally of the nearest competitor. Under Florentino Pérez’s leadership, the club has now won six of the last eleven UEFA Champions League titles, and has... View Details
- December 2024
- Article
Large Shocks Travel Fast
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
We document a sizeable increase in the frequency of price adjustments following the large energy shocks of 2022. We use a tractable New Keynesian model, calibrated to the pre-shock data, to interpret such a pattern. The calibration highlights the state-dependence of... View Details
- November 2024
- Case
AlphaGo (A): Birth of a New Intelligence
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the first of a three-part series, traces DeepMind's evolution from its 2010 founding through its acquisition by Google in 2014. Often referred to as the "Apollo project" of artificial intelligence, DeepMind used games as a testing ground to develop AI... View Details
- November 2024
- Case
Group AMANA: Built to Last
By: Hise Gibson and Fares Khrais
The case chronicles the Bsaibes brothers’ journey in founding and operating Group AMANA; a contracting business founded in 1993, based in the United Arab Emirates with operations across the Middle East. Over the years, the business found itself grappling with major... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Categorical Processing in a Complex World
By: Marco Sammon, Thomas Graeber and Christopher Roth
In real-world news environments, quantitative information is rarely presented in isolation; it is characterized through qualitative comparisons with various reference levels. Company earnings, for example, are commonly compared to analyst forecasts, previous earnings,... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Ponzi Funds
By: Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina
Many active funds hold concentrated portfolios. Flow-driven trading causes price pressure, which
pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns
into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Finance Without Exotic Risk
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
- September 2024
- Article
Standing on the Shoulders of Science
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Monika Schnitzer and Martin Watzinger
Today’s innovations rely on scientific discoveries of the past, yet only some corporate
R&D builds directly on scientific output. In this paper, we analyze U.S. patents to
investigate how firms generate value by building on prior art “closer” to science. We
show... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices
By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke
This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details