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  • December 2019
  • Technical Note

Technical Note on Bayesian Statistics and Frequentist Power Calculations

By: Amitabh Chandra and Ariel Dora Stern
This Technical Note provides an introduction to Bayes’ Rule and the statistical intuition that stems from it. In this note, we review the concepts that underlie Bayesian statistics, and we offer several simple mathematical examples to illustrate applications of Bayes’... View Details
Keywords: Bayesian Statistics; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2016
  • Article

Does volunteering improve well-being?

By: A.V. Whillans, Scott C. Seider, Lihan Chen, Ryan J. Dwyer, Sarah Novick, Kathryn J. Gramigna, Brittany A. Mitchell, Victoria Savalei, Sally S. Dickerson and Elizabeth W. Dunn
Does volunteering causally improve well-being? To empirically test this question, we examined one instantiation of volunteering that is common at post-secondary institutions across North America: community service learning (CSL). CSL is a form of experiential learning... View Details
Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; College Students; Bayesian Statistics; Education; Well-being
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  • Article

Fast Generalized Subset Scan for Anomalous Pattern Detection

By: Edward McFowland III, Skyler Speakman and Daniel B. Neill
We propose Fast Generalized Subset Scan (FGSS), a new method for detecting anomalous patterns in general categorical data sets. We frame the pattern detection problem as a search over subsets of data records and attributes, maximizing a nonparametric scan statistic... View Details
Keywords: Pattern Detection; Anomaly Detection; Knowledge Discovery; Bayesian Networks; Scan Statistics; Analytics and Data Science
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  • August 2021
  • Article

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky
Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use... View Details
Keywords: Missing Data; Bayesian Statistics; Imputation; Categorical Data; Estimation
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  • Article

Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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    Zhongming Jiang

    Zhongming Jiang is a Ph.D. student in Marketing (Quantitative) at Harvard Business School. His methodological interests include Bayesian {nonparametrics, causal inference, deep learning}, and probabilistic machine learning. Substantively, he is interested... View Details

    • September 1990
    • Article

    Competition on Many Fronts: A Stackelberg Signaling Equilibrium

    By: Jerry R. Green and Jean-Jacques Laffont
    An economic agent, the incumbent, is operating in many environments at the same time. These may be locations, markets, or specific activities. He is informed of the particular conditions relevant to each situation. His action in each case is observable by another... View Details
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    • 11 Dec 2007
    • First Look

    First Look: December 11, 2007

      Working PapersThe Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization Author:Walter A. Friedman Abstract Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early... View Details
    Keywords: Martha Lagace
    • Web

    Program Requirements - Doctoral

    Learning (Statistics 195) Probability Theory (Statistics 210) Statistical Inference (Statistics 211) Bayesian Data Analysis (Statistics 220) Incomplete Multivariate Data (Statistics 232) Sequential Decision... View Details
    • 07 Feb 2005
    • What Do You Think?

    If You Blink, Will You Miss?

    process." Steve Carnevale puts it more graphically: "I think blink is very dangerous. Read the book Fooled by Randomness. The author does a good job of explaining that our brain is great at pattern recognition, but not suited to View Details
    Keywords: by James Heskett
    • 27 Feb 2012
    • Research & Ideas

    When Researchers Cheat (Just a Little)

    John calls them, such as selectively reporting studies that achieved positive results, to "academic felonies" such as falsifying data. Measuring Truthfulness The participants' scores were determined by a truth-telling algorithm developed by coauthor Prelec,... View Details
    Keywords: by Katie Johnston; Education
    • 25 Jan 2011
    • First Look

    First Look: Jan. 25

    products. We find that public choices in which participants display their preferences to others encourage feature-seeking behavior, but that the anticipation of having to use a product in front of others provides an incentive to avoid additional features.... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 23 Oct 2018
    • First Look

    New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

    other domains, such as rail or hospital passenger flow. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55098 Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize? By:... View Details
    Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
    • 05 Dec 2012
    • What Do You Think?

    Should Managers Bother Listening to Predictions?

    Predictors badly mistake self-confidence for competence in data analysis. He argues for predictions: (1) expressed in terms of probabilities (as in Bayesian statistical methods and weather forecasts), (2)... View Details
    Keywords: by James Heskett
    • 10 Oct 2017
    • First Look

    First Look at New Research and Ideas, October 10, 2017

    average, consistent with the Bayesian intuition that the market inferred their work was mediocre all along. We then investigate whether the eminence of the retracted author and the cause of the retraction (fraud vs. mistake) shape the... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 01 Dec 2015
    • First Look

    December 1, 2015

    Statistics Survive Another Day: Using Changes in the Composition of Investments to Measure the Cost of Credit Constraints By: Garicano, Luis, and Claudia Steinwender Abstract—We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of... View Details
    Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
    • 29 Jan 2019
    • First Look

    New Research and Ideas, January 29, 2019

    pre-HRRP readmission rates across samples, we found that declines for targeted conditions at general acute care hospitals were statistically indistinguishable from declines in two control samples. Either the HRRP had no effect on... View Details
    Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
    • 26 Feb 2008
    • First Look

    First Look: February 26, 2008

    summaries of past environmental performance. In addition, firms with more KLD concerns have slightly, but statistically significantly, more pollution and regulatory compliance violations in later years. KLD environmental strengths, in... View Details
    Keywords: Martha Lagace