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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (28)
    • Faculty Publications  (7)

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    • All HBS Web  (28)
      • Faculty Publications  (7)

      Bayesian LearningRemove Bayesian Learning →

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning

      By: Joshua L. Krieger
      This chapter explores two distinct modes of entrepreneurial learning: assessing venture viability and choosing between alternative development paths. It introduces a framework for decomposing venture viability into technological feasibility, commercial potential and... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Learning
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      Krieger, Joshua L. "Charting (and Updating) the Path: A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-031, December 2024.
      • April 2024
      • Article

      Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM

      By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
      Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details
      Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation
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      Dew, Ryan, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer, and Nachum Sicherman. "Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 2 (April 2024): 368–392.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy

      By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
      Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details
      Keywords: Product Launch; Mathematical Methods; Product Development
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      Li, Yufan, Jialiang Mao, and Iavor Bojinov. "Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Customer Journey as a Source of Information

      By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
      In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access, firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions. However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships
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      Padilla, Nicolas, Eva Ascarza, and Oded Netzer. "The Customer Journey as a Source of Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-035, October 2023. (Revised October 2023.)
      • March 2019
      • Article

      A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests

      By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose
      We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve... View Details
      Keywords: Crowdsourcing Contests; Superstar Effect; Bayesian Learning; Utility; Economics Of Information System; Dynamic Structural Model; Dynamic Programming; Markov Chain; Monte Carlo; Learning; Competition; Performance Improvement
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      Zhang, Shunyuan, Param Singh, and Anindya Ghose. "A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests." Information Systems Research 30, no. 1 (March 2019): 15–33.
      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • 2016
      • Article

      Does volunteering improve well-being?

      By: A.V. Whillans, Scott C. Seider, Lihan Chen, Ryan J. Dwyer, Sarah Novick, Kathryn J. Gramigna, Brittany A. Mitchell, Victoria Savalei, Sally S. Dickerson and Elizabeth W. Dunn
      Does volunteering causally improve well-being? To empirically test this question, we examined one instantiation of volunteering that is common at post-secondary institutions across North America: community service learning (CSL). CSL is a form of experiential learning... View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; College Students; Bayesian Statistics; Education; Well-being
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      Whillans, A.V., Scott C. Seider, Lihan Chen, Ryan J. Dwyer, Sarah Novick, Kathryn J. Gramigna, Brittany A. Mitchell, Victoria Savalei, Sally S. Dickerson, and Elizabeth W. Dunn. "Does volunteering improve well-being?" Comprehensive Results in Social Psychology 1, nos. 1-3 (2016): 35–50.
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