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- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- June 2025
- Technical Note
Fair Value Accounting for Debt Securities and Loan Assets
- June 2025
- Case
TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Public Equity; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Debt Securities; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Stocks; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
RTX's Lifetime Income Strategy: Shaping the Future of Retirement
By: Daniel Green, Luis M. Viceira and Sarah Mehta
Set in 2024, this case explores the Lifetime Income Strategy (LIS), a novel retirement product launched by aerospace and defense company RTX in 2012. Aiming to embed the security of a traditional pension within a 401(k) plan, the LIS allowed participants to secure a... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman
By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
With a successful career and strong academic credentials, Aamir Rehman sought to design a life grounded in autonomy. For him, this meant serving on boards, continuing his professorship, and ensuring a secure and comfortable life for his family. While he didn’t possess... View Details
Keywords: Family Office; Organization Design; Family And Friends; Family; Balance; Stability; Trends And Opportunities; Wealth Management; Family Business; Investment; Financial Strategy; Personal Finance; Investment Portfolio; Private Equity; Organizational Design; Family and Family Relationships; Happiness; Satisfaction; Balance and Stability; Human Capital; Compensation and Benefits; Economy; Trends; Business Model; New Jersey; United States
- April 2025
- Article
An Anatomy of Crypto-Enabled Cybercrimes
By: Will Cong, Campbell Harvey, Daniel Rabetti and Zong-Yu Wu
The advent of cryptocurrencies and digital assets holds the promise of improving financial systems by offering cheap, quick, and secure transfer of value. However, it also opens up new payment channels for cybercrimes. Assembling a diverse set of public on- and... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital
By: Daniel Green and Benjamin N. Roth
Portfolio allocation decisions increasingly incorporate social values. We develop a tractable framework to study how competition between investors to own socially valuable assets affects social welfare. Relative to the most common social-investing strategies, we... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Disappearing Index Effect
By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average
of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the
share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
Boom, Bust, or Bullseye? Navigating the Short-Term Rental Market
By: John Macomber, Juan Pablo Heusser Killing, Siddhant Pardeshi and Sally Su
Short-term rentals listed via apps like AirBnB and VRBO are increasingly interesting investments for small-scale real estate investors. However, they have substantial operating costs, vacancy risk, and regulatory exposure compared to traditional long-term leases... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
The Changing Climate on Wall Street
By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris
Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks.
In October 2024,... View Details
In October 2024,... View Details
Keywords: Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Ethics; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Climate Change; Change Management; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Europe
- February 2025
- Tutorial
Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk
By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon
In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details
- February 2025
- Teaching Note
The Reinvention of Kodak
By: Ryan Raffaelli
Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 419-012 and 421-704. View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
- February 2025
- Case
RedBird Capital Partners
By: Anita Elberse and David Moreno Vicente
In July 2024, Gerry Cardinale, the founder and managing partner of RedBird Capital Partners (‘RedBird’) has helped orchestrate a high-profile deal in the world of entertainment: one in which Skydance Media (‘Skydance’), a content production studio led by David Ellison... View Details
Keywords: Film; Television; Superstars; General Management; Investing; Mergers and Acquisitions; Private Equity; Asset Management; Entertainment; Media; Sports; Business or Company Management; Investment; Marketing; Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
- January 2025
- Technical Note
Note on Estate Planning
By: Christina R. Wing, Maryann G Bell and Kara A Perusse
Crafting a comprehensive estate plan is not just about ensuring the smooth transfer of assets; it is about leaving a lasting legacy and protecting your loved ones from unnecessary stress and complications after you are gone. Estate planning is a particularly important... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Hunter Point Capital
By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Srimayi Mylavarapu
In the spring of 2023, Hunter Point Capital faced a pivotal decision that could define its trajectory as a new player in the growing GP stakes business. As the firm neared completion of three high-profile GP stakes investments, consuming nearly a third of its initial... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Index and Active Investing: Vanguard and the New Frontier of Active ETFs
By: Marco Sammon, Luis M. Viceira and Jonathan Kanagasabai
This case explores Vanguard’s strategic decision-making process as it considers entering the growing market for actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Set in 2024, the case places students in the position of Rodney Comegys, Vanguard’s global head of the Equity... View Details