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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Rethinking Volume

      By: Philippe van der Beck, Lorenzo Bretscher and Zhiyu Julie Fu
      Gross trading volumes in financial markets are large and far exceed return volatility. In contrast, “net volume”—trading from persistent portfolio reallocations—is substantially lower, as it excludes transitory round-trip trades. This observation reveals a fundamental... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Volatility
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      van der Beck, Philippe, Lorenzo Bretscher, and Zhiyu Julie Fu. "Rethinking Volume." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 26-003, July 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Max Miller, James D. Paron and Jessica Wachter
      Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Debt Securities
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      Miller, Max, James D. Paron, and Jessica Wachter. "Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 34021, July 2025. (Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
      • June 2025
      • Case

      From Single Stock to Diversified Portfolio: Mastercard Foundation’s $42 Billion Asset Management Launch

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Justin Cohen
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Justin Cohen. "From Single Stock to Diversified Portfolio: Mastercard Foundation’s $42 Billion Asset Management Launch." Harvard Business School Case 225-096, June 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Valuation; Stocks; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, June 2025. (WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
      Keywords: Cash Flow; Volatility; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Stocks
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • June 2025
      • Technical Note

      Fair Value Accounting for Debt Securities and Loan Assets

      By: Jung Koo Kang, Krishna G. Palepu and Charles CY Wang
      Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Debt Securities
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      Kang, Jung Koo, Krishna G. Palepu, and Charles CY Wang. "Fair Value Accounting for Debt Securities and Loan Assets." Harvard Business School Technical Note 125-120, June 2025.
      • June 2025
      • Case

      TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
      On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
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      Siriwardane, Emil N., Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney, and Carlota Moniz. "TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 225-098, June 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Valuation; Measurement and Metrics; Stocks
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • May 2025
      • Case

      RTX's Lifetime Income Strategy: Shaping the Future of Retirement

      By: Daniel Green, Luis M. Viceira and Sarah Mehta
      Set in 2024, this case explores the Lifetime Income Strategy (LIS), a novel retirement product launched by aerospace and defense company RTX in 2012. Aiming to embed the security of a traditional pension within a 401(k) plan, the LIS allowed participants to secure a... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Compensation and Benefits; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Jobs and Positions; Labor; Retirement; Society; Adoption; Aerospace Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Virginia
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      Green, Daniel, Luis M. Viceira, and Sarah Mehta. "RTX's Lifetime Income Strategy: Shaping the Future of Retirement." Harvard Business School Case 225-016, May 2025.
      • May 2025
      • Case

      The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman

      By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
      With a successful career and strong academic credentials, Aamir Rehman sought to design a life grounded in autonomy. For him, this meant serving on boards, continuing his professorship, and ensuring a secure and comfortable life for his family. While he didn’t possess... View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Organization Design; Family And Friends; Family; Balance; Stability; Trends And Opportunities; Wealth Management; Family Business; Investment; Financial Strategy; Personal Finance; Investment Portfolio; Private Equity; Organizational Design; Family and Family Relationships; Happiness; Satisfaction; Balance and Stability; Human Capital; Compensation and Benefits; Economy; Trends; Business Model; New Jersey; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Sophia Pan. "The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman." Harvard Business School Case 225-089, May 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      An Anatomy of Crypto-Enabled Cybercrimes

      By: Will Cong, Campbell Harvey, Daniel Rabetti and Zong-Yu Wu
      The advent of cryptocurrencies and digital assets holds the promise of improving financial systems by offering cheap, quick, and secure transfer of value. However, it also opens up new payment channels for cybercrimes. Assembling a diverse set of public on- and... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Crime and Corruption; Technology Adoption; Currency; Policy
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      Cong, Will, Campbell Harvey, Daniel Rabetti, and Zong-Yu Wu. "An Anatomy of Crypto-Enabled Cybercrimes." Management Science 71, no. 4 (April 2025): 3622–3633.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital

      By: Daniel Green and Benjamin N. Roth
      Portfolio allocation decisions increasingly incorporate social values. We develop a tractable framework to study how competition between investors to own socially valuable assets affects social welfare. Relative to the most common social-investing strategies, we... View Details
      Keywords: Socially Responsible Investing; Investment Portfolio; Welfare; Social Issues; Investment Return
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      Green, Daniel, and Benjamin N. Roth. "The Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital." Journal of Finance 80, no. 2 (April 2025): 755–781.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Disappearing Index Effect

      By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
      The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Value
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Marco Sammon. "The Disappearing Index Effect." Journal of Finance 80, no. 2 (April 2025): 657–698.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
      In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
      Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Bonds; Financial Markets; Government Administration; Valuation; Interest Rates; United States
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Review of Financial Studies 38, no. 4 (April 2025): 981–1013. (Editor's Choice.)
      • March 2025
      • Case

      Boom, Bust, or Bullseye? Navigating the Short-Term Rental Market

      By: John Macomber, Juan Pablo Heusser Killing, Siddhant Pardeshi and Sally Su
      Short-term rentals listed via apps like AirBnB and VRBO are increasingly interesting investments for small-scale real estate investors. However, they have substantial operating costs, vacancy risk, and regulatory exposure compared to traditional long-term leases... View Details
      Keywords: Housing; Acquisition; Entrepreneurship; Investment; Bids and Bidding; Leasing; Renting or Rental; Real Estate Industry; Accommodations Industry; Arizona; California; Texas
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      Macomber, John, Juan Pablo Heusser Killing, Siddhant Pardeshi, and Sally Su. "Boom, Bust, or Bullseye? Navigating the Short-Term Rental Market." Harvard Business School Case 225-013, March 2025.
      • March 2025
      • Case

      The Changing Climate on Wall Street

      By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris
      Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks.
      In October 2024,... View Details
      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Ethics; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Climate Change; Change Management; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Europe
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      Rose, Clayton S., Maxim Pike Harrell, and Michael Norris. "The Changing Climate on Wall Street." Harvard Business School Case 325-020, March 2025.
      • February 2025
      • Tutorial

      Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

      By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon
      In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details
      Keywords: Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Toffel, Michael W., and Spencer Glendon. Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk. Harvard Business School Tutorial 625-709, February 2025. (Click here for HBP Educators link.)
      • February 2025
      • Teaching Note

      The Reinvention of Kodak

      By: Ryan Raffaelli
      Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 419-012 and 421-704. View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Transformation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Competitive Strategy
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      Raffaelli, Ryan. "The Reinvention of Kodak." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 425-053, February 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

      By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
      This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets
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      De Simone, Lisa, Peiyi Jin, and Daniel Rabetti. "Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending." Working Paper, February 2025.
      • February 2025
      • Case

      RedBird Capital Partners

      By: Anita Elberse and David Moreno Vicente
      In July 2024, Gerry Cardinale, the founder and managing partner of RedBird Capital Partners (‘RedBird’) has helped orchestrate a high-profile deal in the world of entertainment: one in which Skydance Media (‘Skydance’), a content production studio led by David Ellison... View Details
      Keywords: Film; Television; Superstars; General Management; Investing; Mergers and Acquisitions; Private Equity; Asset Management; Entertainment; Media; Sports; Business or Company Management; Investment; Marketing; Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and David Moreno Vicente. "RedBird Capital Partners." Harvard Business School Case 525-049, February 2025.
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