Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

March 2015
Article

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

By: Lawrence D. Brown, Andrew C. Call, Michael B. Clement and Nathan Y. Sharp

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the... View Details

Keywords: Knowledge Use and Leverage; Investment; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Services Industry

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10 Jan 2014
News

Year of the Business Remix

01 Mar 2006
News

Venture Capital, Post-Dot Bomb

’96), managing director at Mayfield. Sean Dalton (MBA ’98), a managing general partner at Highland Capital, noted that dire predictions for the industry were nothing new. He counseled a simple, head-down approach: “Do good deals. Focus on... View Details

Keywords: Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

01 Jun 2025
News

Agenda: Stacy Sonnenberg (MBA 2003)

SUPERFAN When Sonnenberg attends a game, she often doesn’t watch the court or field. “I’m always intrigued by stuff that the public doesn’t necessarily think about—like the width of concourses and the mix of seating types,” she says. (Photo: Benjamin Norman) “In... View Details

Keywords: Sasha Issenberg

01 Jun 2015
News

India Research Center: Connecting HBS to South Asia

Executive Director of HBS’s India Research Center With the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund predicting that India will overtake China as the fastest-growing major economy within two years, HBS’s presence in this dynamic... View Details

November 1994 (Revised February 1996)
Case

Toy World, Inc.

By: W. Carl Kester

A shift from seasonal to level production of toys will change the seasonal cycle of Toy World's working capital needs and necessitate new bank credit arrangements. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Working Capital; Business Cycles; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Financial Statements

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June 2024
Teaching Note

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-480. This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Media and Broadcasting Industry

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March 2008 (Revised August 2008)
Supplement

Medtronic Vision 2010 (CW)

By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Zeitler

Keywords: Business Plan; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Opportunities; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

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October 2002
Exercise

Luster Paint Corporation, The

By: Janice H. Hammond

Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Management Practices and Processes; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods

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2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

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February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry

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01 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 1

firm-level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying but highly persistent; 2) forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

17 May 2011
First Look

First Look: May 17

founders. To motivate the empirical analysis we develop a simple theory of costly bargaining, where founders trade off the simplicity of accepting an equal split, with the costs of negotiating a differentiated allocation of founder equity. We test the View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

16 Sep 2008
First Look

First Look: September 16, 2008

behavior. We examine the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary prediction tasks. Theories of the Gambler's Fallacy and models of binary prediction suggest that... View Details

April 2023
Article

Performance on Patient Experience Measures of Former Chief Medical Residents as Physician Exemplars Chosen by the Profession

By: Lucy Chen and J. Michael McWilliams

OBJECTIVE To compare care for patients of primary care physicians (PCPs) who were former chiefs with care for patients of nonchief PCPs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using 2010 to 2018 Medicare Fee-For-Service Consumer Assessment of Healthcare... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Competency and Skills; Surveys; Health Industry

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01 Dec 2016
News

How DC is Taxing the Country

because it doesn’t factor in people who have abandoned their job searches. Few predict the situation will improve soon: Almost half (47 percent) of the HBS alumni surveyed for the report expected US firms to employ fewer people in three... View Details

Keywords: Francis Storrs

01 Feb 2002
News

Europe Business Conference Forecasts the Future

a New Yorker. In the business world, Hannezo predicted that synergies will continue to develop between Europe and the United States, thanks to a shared system of values and a wealth of talent on both sides of the Atlantic. "Together, we... View Details

29 May 2009
Research Event

Business Summit: Introduction to the Future of Market Capitalism

research project exploring the views of global business leaders and HBS faculty on what might threaten the world's economic progress. The spread of market capitalism around the world over the past 100 years has lifted the prosperity of many nations and people. Research... View Details

Keywords: Re: Joseph L. Bower

10 Oct 2018
News

Working with a Giver’s Spirit

percent. Give low- and middle-income customers access to low-interest-rate loans by using a predictive algorithm that uses nontraditional data to measures creditworthiness. “There’s a spectrum of behavior,” says Ayala. “On the one extreme... View Details

March 2022
Case

Auto Mag (Abridged)

By: David E. Bell

A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

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