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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (6,041)
      • Faculty Publications  (1,846)

      Risk and UncertaintyRemove Risk and Uncertainty →

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      • spring 1973
      • Article

      Management of Commercial Bank Government Security Portfolios: An Optimization Approach Under Uncertainty

      By: D. B. Crane and Stephen P. Bradley
      Keywords: Management; Banks and Banking; Government and Politics; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty
      Citation
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      Crane, D. B., and Stephen P. Bradley. "Management of Commercial Bank Government Security Portfolios: An Optimization Approach Under Uncertainty." Journal of Bank Research 4, no. 1 (spring 1973).
      • January 1973 (Revised September 1990)
      • Case

      Carrefour S.A.

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Involves a very rapidly growing retail chain that is financing itself in an unusual (and at first glance) risky fashion. View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Financing and Loans; Risk and Uncertainty; Retail Industry
      Citation
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "Carrefour S.A." Harvard Business School Case 273-099, January 1973. (Revised September 1990.)
      • Article

      Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Investment
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case." Review of Economics and Statistics 51, no. 3 (August 1969): 247–257. (Chapter II of Ph.D. dissertation; Chapter 4 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
      • March 1968 (Revised July 2010)
      • Case

      Basic Industries

      By: Joseph L. Bower and John W. Rosenblum
      Policy problems, mainly organizational issues, face a young middle manager in the context of capital budgeting in a highly technological conglomerate firm with high market uncertainty. View Details
      Keywords: Business Conglomerates; Capital Budgeting; Policy; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty
      Citation
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      Bower, Joseph L., and John W. Rosenblum. "Basic Industries." Harvard Business School Case 313-121, March 1968. (Revised July 2010.)
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

      By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
      We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details
      Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price
      Citation
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      Falato, Antonio, Giovanni Favara, and David Scharfstein. "Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath." Review of Financial Studies (forthcoming).
      • Teaching Interest

      Business Opportunties in Climate Adaptation

      By: John D. Macomber

      This is a Short Intensive Program or SIP at Harvard Business School.  It’s an optional student offering prior to the formal start of the Spring semester the following week.  SIPs tend to cover new material on current topics, to be less formal than the HBS Case Study... View Details

      Keywords: Resilience; Climate Risk; Climate Impact; Fire Protection; Insurance Risk Exposure; Hedge Fund; Public Health; Public Health Measures; Climate Change; Adaptation; Infrastructure; Real Estate Industry; Transportation Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Africa; Latin America
      • Research Summary

      Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)

      By: Laura Alfaro
      We construct an Overlapping-Generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely hedge... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Cities, Structures, and Climate Shocks

      By: John D. Macomber

      This course is about building sustainable and resilient cities, future proofing real estate and infrastructure assets, and examining how businesses and investors find opportunities in climate adaptation.

      The world faces substantial challenges in the face of... View Details

      Keywords: Sustainability; Economic Development; Climate Finance; Migration; Climate Change; Adaptation; Urban Development; Real Estate Industry; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Insurance Industry; Banking Industry
      • Research Summary

      Climate Adaptation

      By: John D. Macomber
      It's clear that challenges like wildfires, river flooding, extreme heat, and storm surge are increasing. How will homeowners, businesses, instituations, goverments, and all of society decide what and whom to protect and what and whom to not protect? What is the timing?... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Risk; Hurricanes; Fire Protection; Water Management; Insurance And Reinsurance
      • Research Summary

      Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

      By: Laura Alfaro
      We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane

      In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details

      • Research Summary

      Corporate transparency and information disclosure strategies

      By: Michael W. Toffel
      This research focuses on transparency and information disclosure strategies, a topic of growing importance in environmental sustainability, corporate strategy, stakeholder relations, and public policy.  My prior research in this area explored why... View Details
      Keywords: Transparency; Disclosure Strategy; Disclosure; Environment; Environmental Performance; Regulation; Supply Chain; Environmental Sustainability; United States
      • Research Summary

      Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal? (with Fabio Kanczuk)

      By: Laura Alfaro
      We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity-term premium, tax smoothing, rolling over risk and the cost from defaulting. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion,... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Decision Making Under Uncertainty

      By: David E. Bell

      Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Disclosure Standards and Communication Norms: Evidence of Voluntary Sustainability Standards as a Coordinating Device for Capital Markets

      By: Khrystyna Bochkay, Jeffrey Hales and George Serafeim
      In this paper, we examine how the development of voluntary sustainability standards has affected the nature of information covered in conference calls. Using industry-specific dictionaries of sustainability terms contained in the disclosure standards developed by the... View Details
      Keywords: Voluntary Disclosure; Accounting Standards; Sustainability Reporting; Sustainability Standards; ESG; ESG Disclosure; Accounting; Corporate Disclosure; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Standards; United States
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      Bochkay, Khrystyna, Jeffrey Hales, and George Serafeim. "Disclosure Standards and Communication Norms: Evidence of Voluntary Sustainability Standards as a Coordinating Device for Capital Markets." Review of Accounting Studies (forthcoming). (Pre-published online March 17, 2025.)
      • Research Summary

      Distributed Innovation in Open Systems—The Role of Modularity

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
      Distributed innovation in open systems is an important trend in the modern global economy. As education levels rise and communication costs fall, more people have the means and motivation to innovate. Supply chains now stretch around the world as firms outsource... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Entrepreneurial Finance

      By: William A. Sahlman
      William A. Sahlman is examining the investment and financing decisions made at all stages in the development of entrepreneurial ventures. Related lines of inquiry concern the role of financial institutions in providing risk capital, and the role of government policy in... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Executive Education - Owner/President Management Program

      By: Martin A. Sinozich

      Delivered in three units that span 24 months over three calendar years, the Owner/President Management (OPM) program is a transformative learning experience that boosts leadership skills and the value of participants’ enterprises.  Sinozich teaches the Finance... View Details

      • Teaching Interest

      Finance I

      By: Archie L. Jones

      This course examines the role of finance in supporting the functional areas of a firm, and fosters an understanding of how financial decisions themselves can create value.

      Topics covered include:

      • Basic analytical skills and principles of... View Details
      • Research Summary

      Financial Risk Management

      By: Richard F. Meyer
      Richard F. Meyer is exploring the theory and practice of financial risk management in corporations worldwide. Three primary objectives of his research are: to understand the underlying sources of risk and corporations' exposure to them; to identify appropriate,... View Details
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