Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2018
Working Paper

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range

2017
Book

Managing Risk in Reinsurance: From City Fires to Global Warming

By: Niels Viggo Hauter and Geoffrey Jones

This is the first book to provide a comprehensive history of the reinsurance industry from the nineteenth century to the present day. Reinsurance developed at the fringe of financial services and, for most of its existence, was largely unnoticed outside the expert... View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Risk Management; Business History; Globalization; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; Africa; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America; Asia

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2017
Article

Refugees Misdirected: How Information, Misinformation and Rumors Shape Refugees’ Access to Fundamental Rights

By: Melissa Carlson, Laura Jakli and Katerina Linos

The global refugee regime represents one of the few generous commitments governments offer to outsiders. Indeed, few persons fleeing armed conflict actually claim international protection upon first arriving in Europe, even though the benefits of legal protection are... View Details

Keywords: Refugees; Knowledge Dissemination; Trust; Risk and Uncertainty; Rights; Europe

November 2016 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Elon Musk's Big Bets

By: David B. Yoffie, Eric Baldwin and Brandon Kaufmann

Between late 2014 and late 2016, Tesla CEO Elon Musk undertook several major, and risky, initiatives that would dramatically expand the scale and scope of Tesla’s business. In late 2014, Tesla began construction on a $5 billion “gigafactory” that would manufacture... View Details

November 2016 (Revised November 2016)
Supplement

The Galaxy Dividend Income Growth Fund's Option Investment Strategies

By: W. Carl Kester

Keywords: Options; Option Contract; Option Pricing; Derivatives; Mutual Funds; Call Options; Put Options; Stock Options; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility; Financial Services Industry; United States

Article

Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses

By: Jolie M. Martin, Martin Reimann and Michael I. Norton

While many experiments have explored risk preferences for money, few have systematically assessed risk preferences for everyday experiences. We propose a conceptual model and provide convergent evidence from seven experiments that, in contrast to a typical “zero”... View Details

Keywords: Experiences; Monetary Gambles; Risk Preferences; Experience Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions

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October 2016
Case

Elon Musk: Balancing Purpose and Risk

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Sarah Mehta

The case is used to illustrate the place of ‘Purpose’ versus financial risk and returns in a founder’s objectives. It also addresses personal risk profile of different founders, and when paired with the Risk Tolerance Exercise, it enables evaluating one’s own appetite... View Details

Keywords: Electric Vehicle; Solar Power; Vision; Trade-offs; Leadership; Mission and Purpose; Risk and Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship; Failure; United States; North America

October 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Case

Going Rogue: Choson Exchange in North Korea

By: Sophus A. Reinert, Dawn H. Lau and Amy MacBeath

In mid-2015, the Singapore-based CEO of Choson Exchange Geoffrey See pondered his next move. He had founded Choson Exchange as a non-profit in 2009 to further female entrepreneurship in North Korea by providing business and legal training in the isolated country. Now,... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; For-Profit Firms; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; North Korea

2018
Working Paper

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein

The short-termism of lenders amplifies boom-bust credit cycles, leading in turn to real costs for the aggregate economy. During the U.S. housing credit boom, publicly-traded banks increased mortgage lending activity and relaxed standards much more than privately-held... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Corporate Finance; Banks and Banking

2016
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty

Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

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2019
Working Paper

Improving Working Conditions in Global Supply Chains: The Role of Institutional Environments and Monitoring Program Design

By: Jodi L. Short, Michael W. Toffel and Andrea R. Hugill

Activism seeking to improve labor conditions in global supply chains has led transnational corporations to adopt codes of conduct and monitor suppliers for compliance, but it is unclear whether these formal organizational structures raise labor standards. Drawing on... View Details

June 24, 2016
Other Article

Why Brexit Is a Big Deal

By: John A. Quelch

The consequences of yesterday's vote by the British people to leave the European Union will be far-reaching, but there is no reason for global markets to panic.
Brexit is a vote against the European Union. Once heralded as the engine of a one-for-all and... View Details

June 2016
Article

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets

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2016
Blog

Building A Culture of Health - John A. Quelch: Creating A Culture of Health

By: John A. Quelch

All American companies are in the health business whether they like it or not. The private sector directly pays for one-fifth of the whopping 17.5% of GDP spent on healthcare in the United States. Rather than viewing health merely as an insurance expense to be... View Details

May 24, 2016
Article

Build a Culture of Health

By: John A. Quelch

Every company, large and small, has an impact on health. It does so in four ways: first, through the healthfulness and safety of the products and services it sells; second, through its attention to employee health and well-being in its work practices and benefits;... View Details

May 20, 2016
Comment

World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics

By: John A. Quelch

When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details

April 21, 2016
Article

Warren Buffett’s Risky Final Bet

By: Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership

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Article

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

By: Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender and Paul Schrimpf

"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry

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April 2016 (Revised December 2019)
Case

Dan Gilbert: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz

Keywords: Detroit; Rock Ventures; Dan Gilbert; Real Estate; Buildings and Facilities; Demographics; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry; United States

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