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      • Faculty Publications  (778)

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      • January 2021 (Revised June 2021)
      • Case

      Hester Pharmaceuticals (A): A Pricing Dilemma

      By: Dante Roscini and John Masko
      In August 2019, the leadership of Hester Pharmaceuticals (Hester) had a problem. Italy promised to be a key market for their new breakthrough oncology drug Akrozumab, but for almost two years, its single-payer healthcare system had been unable to agree with Hester on a... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Trade; Price; Global Range; Global Strategy; Globalized Markets and Industries; Health Care and Treatment; Patents; Monopoly; Negotiation; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Human Needs; Business Strategy; Commercialization; Pharmaceutical Industry; Italy
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      Roscini, Dante, and John Masko. "Hester Pharmaceuticals (A): A Pricing Dilemma." Harvard Business School Case 721-001, January 2021. (Revised June 2021.)
      • January 2021 (Revised August 2021)
      • Case

      ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral

      By: William C. Kirby and John P. McHugh
      In 2020, TikTok became the most valuable start-up ever. The short-form, video-sharing social media platform emerged as the crown jewel of the Chinese technology firm ByteDance, realizing 850 million monthly users and an estimated worth of $180 billion. However, a... View Details
      Keywords: China; Technology; Startup; Start-up; International Strategy; Global Strategy And Leadership; Innovation; Political Risk; Regulations; Trump; Foreign Policy; Foreign Investment; Chinese Internet Market; Global Strategy; Crisis Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship; Globalized Economies and Regions; Government Legislation; Innovation and Management; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Internet and the Web; Social Media; Technology Industry; China; United States
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      Kirby, William C., and John P. McHugh. "ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral." Harvard Business School Case 321-110, January 2021. (Revised August 2021.)
      • January 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      'GEnron'? Markopolos versus General Electric (A)

      By: Jonas Heese and David Lane
      In August 2019, Harry Markopolos—the forensic accountant known for uncovering Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme—alleged that General Electric had committed accounting fraud totaling $38 billion, coining the term “GEnron” for perceived similarities with the 2001 accounting... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Communication; Energy; Financial Condition; Insurance; Performance; Planning; Business and Shareholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Insurance Industry; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry
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      Heese, Jonas, and David Lane. "'GEnron'? Markopolos versus General Electric (A)." Harvard Business School Case 121-005, January 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • January 2021
      • Teaching Note

      Shellye Archambeau: Becoming a CEO

      By: Tsedal Neeley
      Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 420-071 and 420-073. View Details
      Keywords: Leadership; Race; Gender; Leadership Style; Risk and Uncertainty; Change; Prejudice and Bias; Decision Making; Personal Development and Career; Technology Industry; California
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      Neeley, Tsedal. "Shellye Archambeau: Becoming a CEO." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 421-058, January 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      A Model of Relative Thinking

      By: Benjamin Bushong, Matthew Rabin and Joshua Schwartzstein
      Fixed differences loom smaller when compared to large differences. We propose a model of relative thinking where a person weighs a given change along a consumption dimension by less when it is compared to bigger changes along that dimension. In deterministic settings,... View Details
      Keywords: Relative Thinking; Econometric Models; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bushong, Benjamin, Matthew Rabin, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "A Model of Relative Thinking." Review of Economic Studies 88, no. 1 (January 2021): 162–191.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

      By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
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      McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Working Paper, January 2021.
      • December 2020 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      Riverstone

      By: David E. Bell and Natalie Kindred
      In 2020, Luke Minion and the leadership team at Riverstone, a hog producer founded in 2013 in Shandong, China, were evaluating Riverstone’s strategy as it rebounded from outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in two of its three farm complexes. Riverstone was a joint... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Globalization; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Disruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Consulting Industry; United States; China
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      Bell, David E., and Natalie Kindred. "Riverstone." Harvard Business School Case 521-063, December 2020. (Revised May 2021.)
      • Article

      Incorporating Interpretable Output Constraints in Bayesian Neural Networks

      By: Wanqian Yang, Lars Lorch, Moritz Graule, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Finale Doshi-Velez
      Domains where supervised models are deployed often come with task-specific constraints, such as prior expert knowledge on the ground-truth function, or desiderata like safety and fairness. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework for reasoning with such constraints... View Details
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      Yang, Wanqian, Lars Lorch, Moritz Graule, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Finale Doshi-Velez. "Incorporating Interpretable Output Constraints in Bayesian Neural Networks." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 33 (2020).
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

      By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger
      We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Currency; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Du, Wenxin, Carolin Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3097–3138.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

      By: Benjami Lockwood, Afras Y. Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
      Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these... View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Robust Optimization; Taxation; Income; Policy; Design
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      Lockwood, Benjami, Afras Y. Sial, and Matthew C. Weinzierl. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28098, November 2020.
      • 2020
      • Article

      Worry at Work: How Organizational Culture Promotes Anxiety

      By: Jeremy A. Yip, Emma E. Levine, Alison Wood Brooks and Maurice E. Schweitzer
      Organizational culture profoundly influences how employees think and behave. Established research suggests that the content, intensity, consensus, and fit of cultural norms act as a social control system for attitudes and behavior. We adopt the norms model of... View Details
      Keywords: Anxiety; Norms; Stress; Culture; Tightness-looseness; Curvilinear; Organizational Culture; Emotions; Performance
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      Yip, Jeremy A., Emma E. Levine, Alison Wood Brooks, and Maurice E. Schweitzer. "Worry at Work: How Organizational Culture Promotes Anxiety." Art. 100124. Research in Organizational Behavior 40 (2020).
      • October 6, 2020
      • Article

      COVID-19 Is Rewriting the Rules of Corporate Governance

      By: Lynn S. Paine
      Boards are facing a complex new reality as a result of COVID-19. The new environment is characterized by pressures and demands from various stakeholder groups, heightened expectations for societal engagement and corporate citizenship, and radical uncertainty about the... View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards
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      Paine, Lynn S. "COVID-19 Is Rewriting the Rules of Corporate Governance." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (October 6, 2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Reverse Information Sharing: Reducing Costs in Supply Chains with Yield Uncertainty

      By: Pavithra Harsha, Ashish Jagmohan, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson and Georgia Perakis
      Supply uncertainty in produce supply chains presents major challenges to retailers. Supply shortages create frequent disruptions in terms of promised delivery times, quantity and quality delivered. To alleviate these challenges, dual sourcing--a strategy in which... View Details
      Keywords: Information Sharing; Yield Uncertainty; Ration Gaming; Blockchain; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Harsha, Pavithra, Ashish Jagmohan, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson, and Georgia Perakis. "Reverse Information Sharing: Reducing Costs in Supply Chains with Yield Uncertainty." MIT Sloan Research Paper, No. 6172-20, October 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Case

      Ready for Take-Off at Jet It

      By: Gary P. Pisano, Hise Gibson and Nicole Gilmore
      This case examines the business model and growth of a start-up company in the private aviation industry. In June 2020, amidst the COVID crisis, the company's co-founder and CEO must make a decision regarding an order of new jets that will significantly expand the... View Details
      Keywords: Capacity Planning; Business Startups; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Air Transportation Industry
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      Pisano, Gary P., Hise Gibson, and Nicole Gilmore. "Ready for Take-Off at Jet It." Harvard Business School Case 621-036, August 2020.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Leverage and the Beta Anomaly

      By: Malcolm Baker, Mathias F. Hoeyer and Jeffrey Wurgler
      The well-known weak empirical relationship between beta risk and the cost of equity—the beta anomaly—generates a simple tradeoff theory: As firms lever up, the overall cost of capital falls as leverage increases equity beta, but as debt becomes riskier the marginal... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Leverage; Capital Structure; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Baker, Malcolm, Mathias F. Hoeyer, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Leverage and the Beta Anomaly." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 55, no. 5 (August 2020): 1491–1514.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

      By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details
      Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
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      Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
      • July 2020
      • Case

      Michael Solomonov: Jerusalem in a Bowl

      By: Boris Groysberg, Evan M.S. Hecht and Katherine Connolly Baden
      Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Michael Solomonov and Steven Cook had begun to wonder whether it might be time to rethink their opportunistic approach to the expansion of their small restaurant empire in Philadelphia, CooknSolo. The pandemic, however, caused an... View Details
      Keywords: Restaurant Industry; Entrepreneur; COVID-19; Crisis; Crisis Response Plans; Entrepreneurship; Food; Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Innovation and Invention; Leadership; Creativity; Strategy; Ownership; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Situation or Environment; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Groysberg, Boris, Evan M.S. Hecht, and Katherine Connolly Baden. "Michael Solomonov: Jerusalem in a Bowl." Harvard Business School Case 421-016, July 2020.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand... View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 27494, July 2020.
      • July 2020
      • Article

      Recovering the Logic of Double Effect for Business: Intentions, Proportionality, and Impermissible Harms

      By: Rosemarie Monge and Nien-hê Hsieh
      Business actors often act in ways that may harm other parties. While the law aims to restrict harmful behavior and to provide remedies, legal systems do not anticipate all contingencies and legal regulations are not always well enforced. This article argues that the... View Details
      Keywords: Double Effect; Intention; Exploitation; Risk; Practical Ethics; Competition; Risk and Uncertainty; Ethics
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      Monge, Rosemarie, and Nien-hê Hsieh. "Recovering the Logic of Double Effect for Business: Intentions, Proportionality, and Impermissible Harms." Business Ethics Quarterly 30, no. 3 (July 2020): 361–387. (doi: 10.1017/beq.2019.39.)
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