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      Decision Choice And UncertaintyRemove Decision Choice And Uncertainty →

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an... View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers
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      Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, December 2024.
      • January 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Geely SEA: New Electric Vehicle Platforms

      By: Willy C. Shih and Shu Lin
      Kent Bovellan, the Chief Engineer and Head of the Vehicle Architecture Center for Geely Holding, the Hangzhou, China headquartered global automotive group, was debating the platform choice for an upcoming "D" segment midsized battery electric vehicle (BEV). He had led... View Details
      Keywords: Product Innovation; Product Architecture; Product Engineering; Platform Design; Platform Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Digital Platforms; Information Technology; Product Design; Product Development; Cost Management; Decision Making; Competitive Strategy; Industry Structures; Auto Industry; China; Sweden
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      Shih, Willy C., and Shu Lin. "Geely SEA: New Electric Vehicle Platforms." Harvard Business School Case 622-001, January 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Conference Presentation

      Organizational Competition: A Catalyst for Workplace Diversity and Desires for Uniqueness

      By: Samantha N. Smith, Edward H. Chang, Erika L. Kirgios and Katherine L. Milkman
      Competition is prevalent in organizations. For example, people often compete against their colleagues for status and recognition in the workplace or for opportunities for advancement. Workers also compete against others to get hired into organizations in the first... View Details
      Keywords: Status and Position; Organizational Culture; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior
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      Smith, Samantha N., Edward H. Chang, Erika L. Kirgios, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Organizational Competition: A Catalyst for Workplace Diversity and Desires for Uniqueness." In The Consequences of Competition in Organizations. Paper presented at the Academy of Management Annual Meeting, Joint Symposium, Seattle, WA, USA, 2022.
      • December 2021
      • Case

      Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape

      By: Eugene F. Soltes, Grace Liu and Muneeb Ahmed
      In 2018, automotive tycoon Carlos Ghosn was arrested in Japan on financial misreporting charges, followed later by charges of improper payments and misappropriation of funds. Over a year later, still awaiting trial, Ghosn organized his escape from house arrest in Tokyo... View Details
      Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Law; Courts and Trials; Rights; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry; Japan
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      Soltes, Eugene F., Grace Liu, and Muneeb Ahmed. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Assessing Risk in Carlos Ghosn's International Escape." Harvard Business School Case 122-051, December 2021.
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • Article

      Drive Innovation with Better Decision-Making

      By: Linda A. Hill, Emily Tedards and Taran Swan
      Despite their embrace of agile methods, many firms striving to innovate are struggling to produce breakthrough ideas. A key culprit, according to the authors, is an outdated, inefficient approach to decision-making. Today’s discovery-driven innovation processes involve... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Hill, Linda A., Emily Tedards, and Taran Swan. "Drive Innovation with Better Decision-Making." Harvard Business Review 99, no. 6 (November–December 2021): 70–79.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice

      By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
      This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,... View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
      • October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      Green Hydrogen in Chile

      By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Decision Making; Alternative Energy; Renewable Energy; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Instruments; Energy Policy; Government Administration; Strategy; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Energy Industry; Latin America; South America; Chile
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      Khanna, Tarun, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Green Hydrogen in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 722-361, October 2021. (Revised February 2022.)
      • October 2021 (Revised May 2023)
      • Case

      Engine No. 1: An Impact Investing Firm Engages with ExxonMobil

      By: Mark Kramer, Shawn Cole, Vikram S. Gandhi and T. Robert Zochowski
      ExxonMobil, the world's fifth largest source of carbon emissions, remained committed to aggressively expanding its oil & gas business despite global warming. During the COVID pandemic this strategy resulted in massive losses as the price and demand for oil declined. ... View Details
      Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Global Warming; Impact Investment Funds; Hedge Fund Activism; Leadership Development; Business Model; Renewable Energy; Resource Allocation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Governing and Advisory Boards
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      Kramer, Mark, Shawn Cole, Vikram S. Gandhi, and T. Robert Zochowski. "Engine No. 1: An Impact Investing Firm Engages with ExxonMobil." Harvard Business School Case 222-028, October 2021. (Revised May 2023.)
      • October 2021 (Revised March 2022)
      • Supplement

      PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Fabrizio Fantini
      PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Pricing; Pricing Algorithm; Pricing Decisions; Pricing Strategy; Pricing Structure; Promotion; Promotions; Online Marketing; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Retail; Retail Analytics; Price; Advertising Campaigns; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Digital Marketing; Budgets and Budgeting; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Transformation; Decision Making; Retail Industry; Italy
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Fabrizio Fantini. "PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 522-710, October 2021. (Revised March 2022.)
      • October 2021 (Revised June 2022)
      • Case

      PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Pricing; Pricing Algorithm; Pricing Decisions; Pricing Strategy; Pricing Structure; Promotion; Promotions; Online Marketing; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Retail; Retail Analytics; AI; Price; Advertising Campaigns; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Digital Marketing; Budgets and Budgeting; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Transformation; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Retail Industry; Italy
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion." Harvard Business School Case 522-046, October 2021. (Revised June 2022.)
      • October 1, 2021
      • Article

      An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance.

      By: B.M. Balk, M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps and J.L. Zofio
      Cross-efficiency measurement is an extension of Data Envelopment Analysis that allows for tie-breaking ranking of the Decision Making Units (DMUs) using all the peer evaluations. In this article we examine the theory of cross-efficiency measurement by comparing a... View Details
      Keywords: Efficiency Analysis; Performance Benchmarking; Warehousing; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
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      Balk, B.M., M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps, and J.L. Zofio. "An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance." Art. 126261. Applied Mathematics and Computation 406 (October 1, 2021).
      • September 2021 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      Community Solutions

      By: Brian Trelstad and Tom Quinn
      Community Solutions was an anti-homelessness nonprofit founded in 2011 after protagonist Rosanne Haggerty grew frustrated with the limited impact of traditional housing and outreach strategies. It set an ambitious goal, reached in some partner communities, of ending... View Details
      Keywords: Change; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Entrepreneurship; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Capital Budgeting; Capital Markets; Country; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Housing; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Invention; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Sharing; Leading Change; Resource Allocation; Mission and Purpose; Performance Evaluation; Performance Improvement; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Enterprise; Nonprofit Organizations; Human Needs; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Societal Protocols; Poverty; Welfare; Well-being; System; Equality and Inequality; Consulting Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States; New York (city, NY); Florida; Texas
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Tom Quinn. "Community Solutions." Harvard Business School Case 322-021, September 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • September 2021 (Revised June 2023)
      • Supplement

      Serving Bud Moore (B)

      By: David G. Fubini and Patrick Sanguineti
      In only his third year at a Leading Strategy Consulting firm (LSC), Gregory Davis has been assigned to a select group tasked with advising General Motors (GM), one of the largest companies in the world by revenue, on how to reorganize their entire North American... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Relationships; Outcome or Result; Groups and Teams; Management Skills; Restructuring
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      Fubini, David G., and Patrick Sanguineti. "Serving Bud Moore (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 422-016, September 2021. (Revised June 2023.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Salience

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details
      Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures

      By: Joshua L. Krieger
      I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors' research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the trade-offs and interactions between product-market competition and... View Details
      Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Failure; Decision Making; Learning
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      Krieger, Joshua L. "Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures." Management Science 67, no. 9 (September 2021).
      • August 2021
      • Supplement

      Dirk Nowitzki: Changing the Game

      By: Boris Groysberg
      NBA Superstar Dirk Nowitzki was unsure whether the 2018–2019 season would be his last as an NBA player. He had not faced such uncertainty since 1998, when he had navigated a difficult decision regarding the timing of his move to the NBA. He also did not know what he... View Details
      Keywords: Career Decisions; Career Journey; "Sports Organizations,; Mentoring; Retirement; Sports; Performance; Training; Personal Development and Career; Decision Making; Talent and Talent Management; Sports Industry; United States
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      Groysberg, Boris. "Dirk Nowitzki: Changing the Game." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 421-710, August 2021.
      • August 2021 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      Lexoo: Building a Long-Lasting Platform (Abridged)

      By: Chiara Farronato and Elena Corsi
      Lexoo, a UK-based online marketplace for legal services, was facing the strategic choice of how to grow from early start-up to mature platform. Daniel van Binsbergen, Lexoo's CEO, and web developer Chris O'Sullivan, CTO, had set up Lexoo to help Small and Medium-Sized... View Details
      Keywords: Legal Services; Marketplaces; Pivot; Growth and Development Strategy; Digital Platforms; Small Business; Service Operations; Decision Making; Legal Services Industry
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      Farronato, Chiara, and Elena Corsi. "Lexoo: Building a Long-Lasting Platform (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 622-043, August 2021. (Revised February 2022.)
      • August 2021
      • Case

      Apax Digital

      By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo
      The Apax Digital team faced important decisions as they contemplated raising a second fund. Apax Digital Fund I was a $1.1 billion vehicle focused on mid-market growth equity and growth buyouts in the technology sector. The fund had performed well, and the Managing... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Acquisition; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Venture Capital; Technology Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Tango, Jo, and Alys Ferragamo. "Apax Digital." Harvard Business School Case 822-016, August 2021.
      • July 2021 (Revised December 2021)
      • Case

      Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu and Lucas Baker
      This case explores the decision that Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, was considering in late February 2020 about hedging the exposure of the fund’s portfolio from the potential financial fallout ensuing from an extreme event like... View Details
      Keywords: Health Pandemics; Financial Liquidity; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk Management
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      Siriwardane, Emil N., Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu, and Lucas Baker. "Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)." Harvard Business School Case 222-007, July 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
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