Publications

07 Oct 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Keywords: by Wenxin Du, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger

June 12, 2017
Article

Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Markets: A Comparison of the Global Crisis and the Asian Financial Crisis

By: Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza

Leverage levels in emerging market firms rose dramatically in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column examines whether concerns of a repeat of the Asian financial crisis, which was largely attributed to corporate financial roots, are justified. While firm... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Emerging Markets; System Shocks

March 2016
Article

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

By: Malcolm Baker, Brock Mendel and Jeffrey Wurgler

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is consistent with a... View Details

Keywords: Investment

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are behaviorally averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is... View Details

June 2019
Article

Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own... View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Local-currency Bonds; Foreign Reserves; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Financial Markets; Developing Countries and Economies

August 2012 (Revised June 2017)
Case

Australia: Commodities and Competitiveness

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Australia

July 2005 (Revised September 2020)
Case

The U.S. Current Account Deficit

By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel, Renee Kim, Sarah Jeong, Matthew Johnson and Jonathan Schlefer

Investors and policymakers throughout the world were confronted with the risk of painful economic consequences arising from the large U.S. current account deficit. In 2007, the U.S. current account deficit was $731 billion, equivalent to 5.3% of GDP. The implications... View Details

Keywords: World Economy; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Currency; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; United States

18 Sep 2013
News

An Honest Wage: Dollars, Hours, And Ethics

August 2009
Case

Nomura's Global Growth: Picking Up Pieces of Lehman

By: C. Fritz Foley and Linnea Meyer

What issues commonly arise in international financial management? Kenichi Watanabe and Takumi Shibata, CEO and COO of Nomura Holdings Inc., one of the leading investment banks in Asia, have the opportunity to expand their firm internationally through the acquisition of... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Investment Banking; International Finance; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Expansion; Financial Services Industry; Japan

27 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 27

cash for electronic value and vice versa, forming the backbone of an emerging electronic currency ecosystem that has potential to connect millions of poor and “unbanked" people to the formal financial system. Unfortunately, low service... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

22 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 22, 2007

Working PapersGlobal Currency Hedging Authors:John Y. Campbell, Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros, and Luis M. Viceira Abstract This paper considers the risk management problem of an investor who holds a diversified portfolio of global... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

June 2018
Article

Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

By: Wenxin Du, Alexander Tepper and Adrien Verdelhan

We find that deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition imply large, persistent, and systematic arbitrage opportunities in one of the largest asset markets in the world. Contrary to the common view, these deviations for major currencies are not... View Details

Keywords: Interest Rates; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Price

February 2020 (Revised August 2021)
Case

Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Climate Change; Taxation; Competition; Financial Condition; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Environmental Sustainability; Australia

We use data from a large web-based job platform to study how the price of remote work is determined in a globalized labor market. In the platform, workers located around the world compete for jobs that can be done... View Details

Research Summary

Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

By: Laura Alfaro

In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. We revisit sovereign debt sustainability under the assumptions that countries can accumulate reserves and borrow internationally using their own... View Details

April 2002 (Revised April 2003)
Case

Malaysia: Capital and Control

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Laura Alfaro

On September 1, 1998, the government of Malaysia imposed currency and capital controls in response to the financial crisis that had swept Asia. The controls sparked an enormous controversy in the world of international finance. Some celebrated the controls for... View Details

Keywords: Capital Controls; Business and Government Relations; International Finance; Policy; Crisis Management; Balance and Stability; Globalized Economies and Regions; Malaysia