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  • 1977
  • Working Paper

Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

By: Jerry R. Green
A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details
Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty
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  • July 1975
  • Article

An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty

By: Robert C. Merton
Keywords: Theory; Growth and Development; Risk and Uncertainty
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  • April 1975 (Revised November 1984)
  • Case

Enzone Petroleum Corp.

By: Thomas R. Piper
A large integrated oil company is debating whether to switch from a single hurdle rate to multiple hurdle rates for project analysis purposes. Raises questions on: 1) determination of the cost of equity; 2) the usefulness of multiple hurdle rates to adjust for project... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Investment Return; Equity; Capital Budgeting; Energy Industry
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  • November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
  • Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper
The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
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  • May 1974
  • Article

On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates

By: Robert C. Merton
Keywords: Price; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates
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  • November 1973 (Revised April 1983)
  • Case

Southport Minerals, Inc.

By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
Examines how the attractiveness of an investment project can be enhanced by making financing and operating decisions which either manage investment returns or reduce project risks. View Details
Keywords: Decisions; Financing and Loans; Investment; Investment Return; Risk Management; Operations; Projects
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  • Article

Risk and the Value Line Contest

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Roman L. Weil
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Value
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  • spring 1973
  • Article

Management of Commercial Bank Government Security Portfolios: An Optimization Approach Under Uncertainty

By: D. B. Crane and Stephen P. Bradley
Keywords: Management; Banks and Banking; Government and Politics; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty
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  • January 1973 (Revised September 1990)
  • Case

Carrefour S.A.

By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
Involves a very rapidly growing retail chain that is financing itself in an unusual (and at first glance) risky fashion. View Details
Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Financing and Loans; Risk and Uncertainty; Retail Industry
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  • Article

Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case

By: Robert C. Merton
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Investment
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  • March 1968 (Revised July 2010)
  • Case

Basic Industries

By: Joseph L. Bower and John W. Rosenblum
Policy problems, mainly organizational issues, face a young middle manager in the context of capital budgeting in a highly technological conglomerate firm with high market uncertainty. View Details
Keywords: Business Conglomerates; Capital Budgeting; Policy; Managerial Roles; Risk and Uncertainty
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  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
We present evidence that pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings leads banks to increase risk. We start by showing that banks increase risk when they transition from private to public ownership through a public listing or an acquisition. The increase... View Details
Keywords: Ownership Type; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Banks and Banking; Transition; Price
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  • Teaching Interest

Business Opportunties in Climate Adaptation

By: John D. Macomber

This is a Short Intensive Program or SIP at Harvard Business School.  It’s an optional student offering prior to the formal start of the Spring semester the following week.  SIPs tend to cover new material on current topics, to be less formal than the HBS Case Study... View Details

Keywords: Resilience; Climate Risk; Climate Impact; Fire Protection; Insurance Risk Exposure; Hedge Fund; Public Health; Public Health Measures; Climate Change; Adaptation; Infrastructure; Real Estate Industry; Transportation Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Africa; Latin America
  • Research Summary

Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)

By: Laura Alfaro
We construct an Overlapping-Generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely hedge... View Details
  • Teaching Interest

Cities, Structures, and Climate Shocks

By: John D. Macomber

This course is about building sustainable and resilient cities, future proofing real estate and infrastructure assets, and examining how businesses and investors find opportunities in climate adaptation.

The world faces substantial challenges in the face of... View Details

Keywords: Sustainability; Economic Development; Climate Finance; Migration; Climate Change; Adaptation; Urban Development; Real Estate Industry; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Insurance Industry; Banking Industry
  • Research Summary

Climate Adaptation

By: John D. Macomber
It's clear that challenges like wildfires, river flooding, extreme heat, and storm surge are increasing. How will homeowners, businesses, instituations, goverments, and all of society decide what and whom to protect and what and whom to not protect? What is the timing?... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Risk; Hurricanes; Fire Protection; Water Management; Insurance And Reinsurance
  • Research Summary

Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details

  • Research Summary

Corporate transparency and information disclosure strategies

By: Michael W. Toffel
This research focuses on transparency and information disclosure strategies, a topic of growing importance in environmental sustainability, corporate strategy, stakeholder relations, and public policy.  My prior research in this area explored why... View Details
Keywords: Transparency; Disclosure Strategy; Disclosure; Environment; Environmental Performance; Regulation; Supply Chain; Environmental Sustainability; United States
  • Research Summary

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal? (with Fabio Kanczuk)

By: Laura Alfaro
We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity-term premium, tax smoothing, rolling over risk and the cost from defaulting. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion,... View Details
  • Teaching Interest

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

By: David E. Bell

Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

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