Publications

2015
Article

Free at Last, Now What: The Soviet and Chinese Attempts to Offer a Roadmap for the Post-Colonial World

By: Jeremy Friedman

This article seeks to understand the motivations behind the People's Republic of China's attempt to present an alternative development model for the post-colonial world and challenge Soviet leadership in the international communist movement in mid-1960s. When the wave... View Details

Keywords: Development Economics; Business and Government Relations; China; United States; Soviet Union

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U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote—an ostensible attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a panel data set with 1.6 billion observations, 2008–2018, we find that... View Details

Research Summary

Institutions and Corporate Lobbying

“Institutions and Make-or-Buy Decision of Lobbying: The Role of Sociopolitical Legitimacy on Foreign MNEs’ Lobbying Internalization”

In this study, I examine how legitimacy comes into play in foreign MNEs’ make-or-buy decisions... View Details

Keywords: Institutions; Make V. Buy; Lobbying; Legitimacy; Corruption; Culture; Multinational Enterprise; United States

Research Summary

Overview

By: Vincent Pons

Professor Pons studies questions in political economy and development with the goal of understanding how democratic systems function, and how they can be improved.

He decomposes the electoral cycle into four essential steps: the factors affecting voter... View Details

November 2018 (Revised June 2019)
Case

The Rise of Populism and Italy's Electoral 'Tsunami'

By: Rawi Abdelal, Dante Roscini and Elena Corsi

Italy’s March 2018 elections led to a populist government that included the right-wing League and the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement. To respect their electoral promises, the two parties came up with a budget plan that provided for a public deficit at 2.4%, a... View Details

Keywords: Globalized Economies; Unemployment; Extremism; Political Elections; Immigration; Poverty; Social Issues; Government and Politics; Financial Condition; Financial Markets; Italy

January 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Singapore: 'From Third World to First'

By: Charlotte L. Robertson and Mattias Fibiger

As Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong prepared to step down in 2022, Singapore faced a number of pressing challenges, from popular discontent at home to geopolitical tensions abroad. The country had become very rich after decades of successful economic management, but... View Details

Keywords: Government Administration; Economic Growth; Public Opinion; Singapore

January 2022
Background Note

Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left

By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP... View Details

Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China

January 11, 2023
Article

Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks: But They Might Get There If Ukraine Keeps Winning

By: James K. Sebenius and Michael Singh

While there are many calls for negotiation between Ukraine and Russia to end their war, there does now (early 2023) not appear to be a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), since each side's best no-agreement option ("BATNA") likely appears superior to any mutually... View Details

Keywords: Diplomacy; Agreements; Ukraine; International Relations; War; Negotiation; Ukraine; Russia

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Article

Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz

To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform... View Details

Keywords: Legislation; Legislators; Peace Process; Agreements; Govenment; Voters' Interests; Governance; Government and Politics; Voting; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Latin America; Colombia

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02 Jul 2013
First Look

First Look: July 2

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1982531 2006 pub How to Negotiate with VCs By: Malhotra, Deepak Abstract—VC-entrepreneur partnership agreements often contain flaws that become highly damaging as the parties come up against issues of power,... View Details

Keywords: Anna Secino

19 Mar 2013
First Look

First Look: March 19

Electronic Monitoring Authors:Di Tella, Rafael, and Ernesto Schargrodsky Publication:Journal of Political Economy Abstract We study criminal recidivism in Argentina by focusing on the re-arrest rates of two groups: individuals released... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

December 2010
Case

Everything or Nothing: Martti Ahtisaari and the Aceh Negotiations (A)

By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green

In early 2005, Martti Ahtisaari planned negotiations to end the decades-long conflict between Acehnese insurgents and the Indonesian government that had claimed thousands of lives. The "modern" phase of the insurgency by the fighters from the Free Aceh Movement that... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Negotiation; Conflict and Resolution; Conflict Management; Indonesia

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Faculty & Research

declining exports increased the power of evangelical leaders to persuade their congregations to vote against parties that favor welfare-state expansion. My findings help explain and describe the contingencies underlying the View Details

Web

Publications - Faculty & Research

the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil By: Paula Rettl How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose expanding... View Details

October 2021 (Revised November 2022)
Case

The 2012 Spanish Labor Reform: Lifting All Boats, or Leveling Down?

By: Vincent Pons, Rafael Di Tella, Santiago Botella and Elena Corsi

Since 1978, Spain had struggled to control unemployment. The country’s labor law was protective of employees hired long-term and companies used temporary contracts as buffers. In 2012, amid economic recession and a 23.6% unemployment rate, a center-right government of... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Labor Market; Unemployment; Recession; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government Legislation; International Relations; Working Conditions; Employment; Labor Unions; Contracts; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Spain; European Union

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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05 Mar 2007
Research & Ideas

Risky Business? Protecting Foreign Investments

often meant higher charges to the public for electricity, water, or other public services. Some increases in rates were no doubt needed to get governments out of subsidies, but large increases were blamed on the new private owners. This was especially sensitive View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Energy; Utilities

07 Apr 2014
Working Paper Summaries

Better Deals Through Level II Strategies: Advance Your Interests by Helping to Solve Their Internal Problems

Keywords: by James K. Sebenius

2025
Working Paper

Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters

By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Emilie Sartre

Using data on the residential location and migration for every voter in U.S. states recording partisan registration between 2008–2020, we find that residential segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Geographic Location; Demographics