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- All HBS Web (545)
- Faculty Publications (149)
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- 2019
- Working Paper
Managing Churn to Maximize Profits
By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability, or their responsiveness to a... View Details
Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-020, September 2013. (Revised December 2019. Forthcoming at Marketing Science.)
- 15 Sep 2015
- First Look
September 15, 2015
account for the majority of sales and revenue. To tackle this challenge, we use machine learning techniques to estimate historical lost sales and predict future demand of new products. The nonparametric... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- September 2020
- Article
Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels
By: David R. Bell, Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno
We conjecture that for online retailers, experience-centric offline store formats do not simply expand market coverage, but rather, serve to significantly amplify future positive customer behaviors, both online and offline. We term this phenomenon “supercharging” and... View Details
Keywords: Retail Operations; Marketing-operations Interface; Omnichannel Retailing; Experience Attributes; Quasi-experimental Methods; Operations; Internet and the Web; Marketing Channels; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry
Bell, David R., Santiago Gallino, and Antonio Moreno. "Customer Supercharging in Experience-Centric Channels." Management Science 66, no. 9 (September 2020).
- 22 Mar 2024
- Research & Ideas
Open Source Software: The $9 Trillion Resource Companies Take for Granted
figure. Without open source software and their ubiquitous code-creation networks, firms would pay an estimated 3.5 times more to build the software and platforms that run their businesses, or roughly $8.8 trillion, say Harvard Business... View Details
- Article
When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs
By: Eva Ascarza, Anja Lambrecht and Naufel Vilcassim
In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. In contrast with two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that the attributes... View Details
Keywords: Pricing; Nonlinear Pricing; Discrete/continuous Choice Model; Three-part Tariffs; Free Products; Price; Consumer Behavior; Analysis; Learning; Risk and Uncertainty
Ascarza, Eva, Anja Lambrecht, and Naufel Vilcassim. When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs. Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 49, no. 6 (December 2012): 882–900.
- Article
Beyond the Target Customer: Social Effects in CRM Campaigns
By: Eva Ascarza, Peter Ebbes, Oded Netzer and Matthew Danielson
Customer relationship management (CRM) campaigns have traditionally focused on maximizing the profitability of the targeted customers. The authors demonstrate that in business settings characterized by network externalities, a CRM campaign that is aimed at changing the... View Details
Keywords: Social Effects; Field Experiment; Mobile; Customer Relationship Management; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior
Ascarza, Eva, Peter Ebbes, Oded Netzer, and Matthew Danielson. "Beyond the Target Customer: Social Effects in CRM Campaigns." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 54, no. 3 (June 2017): 347–363.
- 14 Apr 2009
- First Look
First Look: April 14, 2009
Competition Between Differentiated Products with Demand for More Than One Variety Author: Andrei Hagiu Abstract We analyze the existence of pure strategy symmetric price equilibria in a generalized version of Salop's (1979) circular model... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 2024
- Working Paper
Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations
By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein
How prevalent are severe software vulnerabilities, how fast do software users respond to the availability of secure versions, and what determines the variance in the installation distribution? Using the largest dataset ever assembled on user updates, tracking server... View Details
Murciano-Goroff, Raviv, Ran Zhuo, and Shane Greenstein. "Navigating Software Vulnerabilities: Eighteen Years of Evidence from Medium and Large U.S. Organizations." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32696, July 2024.
- 24 Dec 2013
- First Look
First Look: December 24
Lakshmi, Xin Meng, Nancy Qian, and Xiaoxue Zhao Abstract—This paper studies the policy determinants of economic transition and estimates the demand for labor in the infant private sector in urban China. We... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- April 2021
- Article
A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time
By: Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir
In retail settings with price promotions, consumers often search across stores and time. However, the search literature typically only models one pass search across stores, ignoring revisits to stores; the choice literature using scanner data has modeled search across... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Search; Multi-pass Search; Price Search; Store Search; Spatial Search; Temporal Search; Spatiotemporal Search; Dynamic Structural Models; MPEC; Price Promotions; Store Loyalty; Consumer Behavior; Price; Spending; Marketing; Mathematical Methods
Mojir, Navid, and K. Sudhir. "A Model of Multi-Pass Search: Price Search Across Stores and Time." Management Science 67, no. 4 (April 2021): 2126–2150.
- 09 Jan 2014
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Transition and Private-Sector Labor Demand: Evidence from Urban China
- 07 Jul 2008
- Research & Ideas
Innovation Corrupted: How Managers Can Avoid Another Enron
for natural gas, and to create derivative supply contracts that could help customers manage the risks of demand volatility and price swings more effectively than before. In this way, Skilling and his colleagues solved a major contracting... View Details
- 24 Jan 2005
- Research & Ideas
Rethinking Activity-Based Costing
now possible through an approach that we call time-driven ABC, which we have successfully helped more than 100 client companies implement, including those described in this article. In the revised approach, managers directly estimate the... View Details
Keywords: by Robert S. Kaplan & Steven R. Anderson
- September–October 2013
- Article
The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics
By: Doug J. Chung
I measure the spillover effect of intercollegiate athletics on the quantity and quality of applicants to institutions of higher education in the United States, popularly known as the "Flutie Effect." I treat athletic success as a stock of goodwill that decays over... View Details
Keywords: Choice Modeling; Entertainment Marketing; Heterogeneity; Panel Data; Structural Modeling; Rights; Analytics and Data Science; Higher Education; Ethics; Consumer Behavior; Advertising; Sports; Advertising Industry; Education Industry
Chung, Doug J. "The Dynamic Advertising Effect of Collegiate Athletics." Marketing Science 32, no. 5 (September–October 2013): 679–698. (Lead article. Featured in HBS Working Knowledge.)
- 17 Jan 2012
- Working Paper Summaries
Expectations, Network Effects and Platform Pricing
- March 2022
- Article
Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products
By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue... View Details
Keywords: Online Learning; Product Ranking; Assortment Optimization; Learning; Internet and the Web; Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce
Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
- 12 Jul 2011
- First Look
First Look: July 12
the Use of Unverifiable Estimates in Required Goodwill Impairment Authors:Karthik Ramanna and Ross L. Watts Publication:Review of Accounting Studies (forthcoming) Abstract SFAS 142 requires managers to View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
- 2013
- Working Paper
Where do the Most Active Customers Originate and How Can Firms Keep Them Engaged?
By: Clarence Lee, E. Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh
In this paper, we study how firms offering Web services can acquire and develop an active customer base. We focus on two basic questions. First, how does the method of customer acquisition affect the way customers use the service to meet their own needs and to interact... View Details
- 23 Nov 2021
- Research & Ideas
The Vinyl Renaissance: Take Those Old Records Off the Shelf
record was relatively easy. The major labels used to own plants to ensure they had enough product to keep record store bins stocked. What does the landscape look like today? Kelleher: In North America, I estimate there are probably 20... View Details
- 02 May 2005
- Research & Ideas
Four VCs on Evaluating Opportunities
existing product or whether the product is offering something new and previously unseen. The replacement product can be called the better, cheaper, faster model. With these opportunities you can estimate market size by looking at the... View Details
Keywords: by Lauren Barley