Publications

2025
Working Paper

Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Volatility; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Stocks

SSRN

June 2013 (Revised January 2016)
Case

Château Margaux: Launching the Third Wine

By: Elie Ofek and Eric E. Vogt

Château Margaux, one of only five prestigious estates in the Bordeaux Medoc wine region to have been classified as a "first-growth", is facing a host of strategic decisions in early 2013. Up until this point the estate had been selling two red wines, a first wine whose... View Details

Keywords: New Product Launch; Marketing Plan; Brand Management; Go To Market Strategy; Channels Of Distribution; Wine Industry; Marketing Strategy; Distribution Channels; Product Launch; Brands and Branding; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; France

March 2018 (Revised September 2023)
Case

X: The Foghorn Decision

By: Robert S. Huckman, Karim R. Lakhani and Kyle R. Myers

In February 2016, Kathy Hannun—a project leader at X, Alphabet Inc.'s so-called "moonshot factory"—had to prepare a recommendation for the senior leadership of X regarding the future of Foghorn, a project she was leading to develop a carbon-neutral process for... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; R＆D Project Management; Radical Innovation; Clean Technology; Innovation and Management; Technological Innovation; Energy; Research and Development; Projects; Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Technology Industry; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; California

4 Jun 2008
Other Presentation

Value-Based Health Care Delivery

By: Michael E. Porter

This presentation draws on Michael E. Porter and Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg: Redefining Health Care: Creating Value-Based Competition on Results, Harvard Business School Press, May 2006, “How Physicians Can Change the Future of Health Care ” Journal of the American... View Details

Keywords: Health; Spain

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March 2006 (Revised April 2007)
Case

Cinco de Mayo

By: Arthur I Segel, Nicolas P. Retsinas, David Margain and Andres Caldera Radonski

In 2004, Adrian Pandal is seeking financing for a residential conversion of a building in Mexico City's historic center district. He must convince potential lenders that the project is viable and that it makes sense to bet on the future potential of an area that, until... View Details

Keywords: History; Risk Management; Opportunities; Urban Development; Investment; Property; Real Estate Industry; Mexico City

27 Feb 2008
News

Harvard Business School’s 2+2 Admissions Application Now Available

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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November 2020
Article

Casting Conference Calls

By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy

We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Release; Firms; Conference Calls; Information; Strategy; Asset Pricing

SSRN

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20 Apr 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Executive Education in the Digital Vortex: The Disruption of the Supply Landscape

Keywords: by Mihnea Moldoveanu and Das Narayandas; Education

April 2001 (Revised May 2002)
Case

Brazil: Embracing Globalization?

By: Laura Alfaro

In 2001, Brazil stands at a crossroads. The country seems to be emerging from decades of economic stagnation. The economic situation remains tenuous, however, Brazil's leaders must now chart a forward course. Most critically, they must decide whether Brazil's future... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Development Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Cooperation; Globalized Economies and Regions; Cost vs Benefits; Brazil

March 1986 (Revised November 1990)
Case

Valerie Morgan

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Presents interviews and conversations with a woman who recently started a publishing house. Primarily concerns her immediate future regarding harvesting options: IPO, sell out, step up to chairman, venture capital, etc. Also deals with the excitement and thrill of... View Details

Keywords: Interactive Communication; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship; Cash; Initial Public Offering; Business or Company Management; Strategic Planning; Publishing Industry

29 Sep 2014
News

Harvard’s Michael Porter Unveils New Tool to Improve Economic Development

June 2013
Article

Signals across Multiple Networks: How Venture Capital and Alliance Networks Affect Interorganizational Collaboration

By: Umit Ozmel, Jeffrey J. Reuer and Ranjay Gulati

In this paper, we examine the contingent effects of signals generated by different types of networks on new ventures' formation of future strategic alliances. We argue that the signaling value of a given tie in reducing adverse selection is more pronounced when another... View Details

Keywords: Networks; Venture Capital; Alliances