Publications

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2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

01 Dec 2018
News

Alumni and Faculty Books for December 2018

(MBA 1980) Crown This book is a fresh, intimate look at a series of American Presidents who took the nation into war and mobilized the country for victory. It brings us into the room as they make the most... View Details

25 Jan 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Who Lives in the C-Suite? Organizational Structure and the Division of Labor in Top Management

Keywords: by Maria Guadalupe, Hongyi Li & Julie Wulf

November–December 2023
Article

Network Centralization and Collective Adaptability to a Shifting Environment

By: Ethan S. Bernstein, Jesse C. Shore and Alice J. Jang

We study the connection between communication network structure and an organization’s collective adaptability to a shifting environment. Research has shown that network centralization—the degree to which communication flows disproportionately through one or more... View Details

Keywords: Network Centralization; Collective Intelligence; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Structure; Communication; Decision Making; Networks; Adaptation

2024
Working Paper

Platform Information Provision and Consumer Search: A Field Experiment

By: Lu Fang, Yanyou Chen, Chiara Farronato, Zhe Yuan and Yitong Wang

Despite substantial efforts to help consumers search in more intuitive ways, text search remains the predominant tool for product discovery online. In this paper, we explore the effects of visual and textual cues for search refinement on consumer search and purchasing... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Behavior; E-commerce; Decision Choices and Conditions; Learning; Internet and the Web

2021
Working Paper

Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details

Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making

SSRN

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

Purchase

18 Jan 2023
Blog Post

Career Planning and Development: Interview with Career Coach Wendi Zhang (MBA/MPP 2013)

my entrepreneurial endeavors through programs like those offered by the i-lab and Rock Center. Make many dear friends: The lifelong friends I made during my time at HBS continue to play a significant role in... View Details

14 Apr 2022
Blog Post

Trust the Process, and Trust Yourself Even More: Interview with Wellness and Empowerment Leader, Dilan Gomih (MBA 2019)

another shot and afterward immediately felt how exercise improved her productivity and mindset. Gomih was hooked and started quickly introducing lifestyle changes to View Details

July 1989 (Revised November 1992)
Supplement

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.: MIS Reorganization (B)

Describes the vice president of Management Information Services (MIS) Division's response to the dilemma facing him. View Details

Keywords: Restructuring; Decision Making

08 Mar 2016
Research & Ideas

Solving an Economic Mystery Surrounding Argentina and Chile

Business History, and Faculty Chair of the School's Business History Initiative, to discuss the making of the book and to bring us up to date on the current situations in... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

August 2002
Book Review

Review of Authority Relations and Economic Decision-making in Vietnam: An Historical Perspective by Dang Phong and Melanie Beresford

Keywords: Economics; Decision Making; History; Perspective; Global Range; Viet Nam

27 Sep 2021
Blog Post

Working to Change the Food System

Jesse Lou (MBA 2022) reflects on his decision to come to HBS, what motivates him to make a difference in the world by using technology to build a more sustainable food system, View Details

April 29, 2020
Article

How Should We Allocate Scarce Medical Resources?

By: Max Bazerman, Regan Bernhard, Joshua D. Greene, Karen Huang and Netta Barak-Corren

Who should get a ventilator if there aren’t enough to go around? Research on decision making leads to three concrete guidelines that policy-makers and physicians can use to make fair choices when allocating scarce, life-saving resources. The key to making fair and... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; Resource Allocation; Decision Making; Policy; Fairness; Ethics

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01 Dec 2015
News

Alumni and Faculty Books for December 2015

Alumni Books Think to Win: Unleashing the Power of Strategic Thinking by Paul Butler, John F. Manfredi, and Peter Klein (MBA 1971) (McGraw-Hill Education) The authors provide a proven plan for making... View Details

October 2007
Journal Article

Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets

By: Scott Snook and Paul T. Bartone

Efforts to educate and develop future military officers aim to produce highly competent, ethical and effective leaders to serve the nation. But while there is general agreement about desired outcomes, the underlying developmental processes associated with these... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership Development; Performance Evaluation; Personal Development and Career; Social Psychology

2024
Working Paper

Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States

By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes.... View Details

Keywords: Attitudes; Social Issues; Voting; Public Opinion; Social Media