Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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16 Mar 2017
News

Three Harvard Experts Explain How Economics Can Shape Precision Medicines

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

Research Summary

Decision making

Dr. Bos investigates how unconscious processes aid and improve performance. His work contests the common-sense notion that conscious deliberation always leads to the best outcomes. Dr. Bos and colleagues propose that, for complex decisions, the best outcomes result... View Details

June 1981 (Revised May 1988)
Case

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Corporate Strategy

By: Hirotaka Takeuchi

L.L. Bean, Inc., a Maine-based manufacturer and mail-order retailer of sporting goods and apparel, has grown from $3 million in sales (1967) to over $120 million (1980). Current projections predict an annual compounded growth of 25% through 1985. Management must decide... View Details

Keywords: Globalization; Growth and Development; Growth Management; Production; Quality; Sales; Situation or Environment; Corporate Strategy; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

September 2019 (Revised January 2021)
Case

Vispera: Visual Intelligence for Retail

By: Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Gamze Yucaoglu

The case opens in 2019 as Aytul Ercil, co-founder and CEO of Vispera, computer vision technology provider for retail, is contemplating the company’s agenda trying to decide how to prioritize the impeding options. The case chronicles the founding of Vispera, the... View Details

Keywords: Computer Vision Technology; Visual Analysis; Retail; Information Technology; Business Model; Operations; Performance Efficiency; Competitive Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Global Strategy; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; Turkey

28 Oct 2014
News

There’s No Excuse for Avoiding Strategy

Article

Development of a Deep Learning Algorithm for Periapical Disease Detection in Dental Radiographs

By: Michael G. Endres, Florian Hillen, Marios Salloumis, Ahmad R. Sedaghat, Stefan M. Niehues, Olivia Quatela, Henning Hanken, Ralf Smeets, Benedicta Beck-Broichsitter, Carsten Rendenbach, Karim R. Lakhani, Max Helland and Robert A. Gaudin

Periapical radiolucencies, which can be detected on panoramic radiographs, are one of the most common radiographic findings in dentistry and have a differential diagnosis including infections, granuloma, cysts, and tumors. In this study, we seek to investigate the... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Diagnosis; Computer-assisted; Image Interpretation; Machine Learning; Radiography; Panoramic Radiograph; AI and Machine Learning

January 2016
Teaching Note

Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency

By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice

This case examines a start-up service provider that helps clients improve the energy efficiency of their factories, warehouses, and commercial and office spaces by integrating and installing lighting, heating, and cooling technologies. The company seeks to double... View Details

Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Energy Efficiency Paradox; Environment; Environmental Strategy; Growth; Energy; Energy Conservation; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Industry

Fall 2019
Article

Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals

By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly

We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function.... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry

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October 2009 (Revised July 2012)
Case

Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count

By: Elie Ofek, Jason Riis and Paul Hamilton

Emotiv is getting ready to launch its innovative brain-computer interfacing (BCI) technology. The company has developed a special headset, called EPOC, and highly sophisticated software that can translate a person's emotions, cognitive thoughts, and facial expressions... View Details

Keywords: Technology Adoption; Sales; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Business Startups; Technology Industry

15 May 2016
News

Stop picking on the GDP

15 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 15, 2007

economic models predict that they do not systematically differ. With online grocery data, we show that people are decreasingly impatient the further in the future their choices will take effect. In general, as the delay between order... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

2020
Working Paper

Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

By: Ryan Raffaelli

This study examines how community-based brick-and-mortar retailers can achieve sustained market growth in the face of online and big box retail competition. The appearance of Amazon.com in 1995 led to a significant decline in the number of independent bookstores in the... View Details

Keywords: Bookstores; Competitive Strategy; Business and Community Relations; Customization and Personalization; Growth and Development; Retail Industry; United States

September 2020 (Revised March 2022)
Case

JOANN: Joannalytics Inventory Allocation Tool

By: Kris Ferreira and Srikanth Jagabathula

Michael Joyce, Vice President of Inventory Management at JOANN, championed an effort to develop and implement an inventory allocation analytics tool that used advanced analytics to predict in-season demand of seasonal items for each of JOANN’s nearly 900 stores and... View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Machine Learning; Optimization; Inventory Management; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Resource Allocation; Distribution; Technology Adoption; Applications and Software; Change Management; Fashion Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry; United States; Ohio

March 2002 (Revised November 2003)
Case

Satellite Radio

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown

In early 2002, XM and Sirius were fighting for control of the emerging U.S. market for satellite radio. Each company targeted consumers in automobiles, providing 100 channels of CD-quality audio for a monthly subscription fee of $10-$13. Wall Street analysts predicted... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Problems and Challenges; Network Effects; Partners and Partnerships; Information Technology; Business Model; Investment Return; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States

2011
Working Paper

Why Fears about Municipal Credit Are Overblown

Highly publicized predictions of 50-100 municipal defaults have caused anxiety among municipal bond investors. While there is some chance that negative investor sentiment will lead to further spread widening, the probability of the kind of widespread default that would... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Bonds; Investment Return; City

October 2012 (Revised September 2014)
Case

Doing Business in Vietnam

By: Alan MacCormack, Michael Shih-ta Chen and Dawn H. Lau

This case gives an overview of the current business environment in Vietnam as of 2012. The first part of the case introduces the main economic, political and cultural aspects of the country of which anyone who has business interest in the country ought to be aware.... View Details

Keywords: Emerging Market Finance; Emergent Countries; Business History; Economic History; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Strategy; Viet Nam

August 2017
Article

The First Deal: The Division of Founder Equity in New Ventures

By: Thomas F. Hellmann and Noam Wasserman

We examine the trade-off between efficiency and equality within the context of entrepreneurial founding teams. Using a formal theory where founders may have preferences over relative outcomes, we derive predictions about the antecedents and consequences of dividing... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Entrepreneurship; Equity

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August 2018
Article

The Impact of the Entry of Biosimilars: Evidence from Europe

By: Fiona M. Scott Morton, Ariel Dora Stern and Scott Stern

Biologics represent a substantial and growing share of the U.S. drug market. Traditional “small molecule” generics quickly erode the price and share of the branded product upon entry; however, only a few biosimilars have been approved in the U.S. since 2015, thereby... View Details

Keywords: Health Care; Biosimilars; Biologics; Pharmaceutical Competition; Healthcare Spending; Innovation; Health Care and Treatment; Spending; Market Entry and Exit; Competition; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; Europe

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July 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

Making Room for the Baby Boom: Senior Living

By: Charles F. Wu, Joseph Beyer and Arthur I. Segel

Tom Alperin's National Development has purchased a building site in affluent Wellesley, MA, and is in the process of deciding whether to build apartments, a combination of independent living and assisted living units for seniors, or perhaps even higher acuity... View Details

Keywords: Senior Living; Assisted Living; Independent Living; Property; Finance; Real Estate Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States

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