Publications

07 Jul 2020
Podcast

Uncovering and Pricing Climate Risk

How do managers within the different sectors of financial services identify and value climate risk? Professor George Serafeim talks with an asset manager, an insurer, a hedge fund manager, and an investment banker about their approaches to identifying and valuing... View Details

09 Jul 2009
News

Systemic Risk and the Fed

2015
Working Paper

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

By: Dylan Minor

When seeking new leaders, business and government organizations alike often need individuals that are less risk averse, or even risk-seeking, in order to improve performance. However, individuals amenable to increased risk-taking may be more likely to engage in... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Behavior; Ethics; Government and Politics; United States

SSRN

19 Nov 2009
News

HBS professor says that uncertainty and inflation scare investors

01 Oct 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

Keywords: by Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo & Robert C. Merton; Construction; Real Estate

2024
Conference Paper

Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as proxy explanations for LLM... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning

May 2014
Case

Sasol: U.S. Growth Program

By: Richard H. K. Vietor

Sasol, the world's largest producer of synthetic oil from coal and gas, has announced plans to build a huge Catalytic cracker and gas-to-liquids plant in Lake Charles, Louisiana. This $21 billion venture will be the single largest foreign direct investment in US... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Risk; Risk And Uncertainty; Petroleum; Synthesis; Diesel; Foreign Direct Investment; Chemicals; Strategy; Energy Industry; United States

Educators

04 Feb 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Risk Preferences and Misconduct: Evidence from Politicians

Keywords: by Dylan Minor; Public Administration; Financial Services

2011
Article

Regulatory Uncertainty and Corporate Responses to Environmental Protection in China

By: Christopher Marquis, Jianjun Zhang and Yanhua Zhou

We develop a framework to analyze the closing gap between regulation and enforcement of environmental protection in China and present a number of resulting implications for doing business there. We identify three major dimensions that characterize change in regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Law Enforcement; Growth and Development Strategy; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Alignment; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Environment; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Competitive Strategy; China

Find at Harvard

2021
Article

Internment as a Business Challenge: Political Risk Management and German Multinationals in Colonial India (1914–1947)

By: Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin and Klara Schnitzer

Internment in so-called “enemy countries” was a frequent occurrence in the 20th century and created significant obstacles for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This article focuses on German MNEs in India and shows how they addressed the formidable challenge of the... View Details

Keywords: Internment; Political Risk; International Business; Multinational Firms and Management; Employees; War; History; Outcome or Result; India; Germany

Find at Harvard

March 2001
Background Note

Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist

This case describes how multiple sources of uncertainty can be incorporated into a real-options-based analysis. It works through an example of a two-stage problem where a company has both an option to explore and an option to develop oil reserves. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; Valuation

Educators

March 2003 (Revised June 2003)
Case

Risk Arbitrage: Abbott Labs and Alza (A)

By: George C. Chacko, Randolph B. Cohen, Marc Chennault and Andrew Kuhlman

A hedge fund is trying to decide whether to capitalize on a seeming risk arbitrage opportunity that exists during the Abbott Labs acquisition of ALZA. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Mergers and Acquisitions; Investment Funds

Educators

July 9, 2009
Editorial

Systemic Risk and the Fed

By: Robert C. Pozen

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; System

Find at Harvard

02 Mar 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Short-Termism, Investor Clientele, and Firm Risk

Keywords: by Francois Brochet, Maria Loumioti & George Serafeim

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

How do monetary policy rules, monetary policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic shocks affect the risk properties of US Treasury bonds? The exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average... View Details

Research Summary

Measuring and Managing Risk in the Supply Chain

Understanding risk factors associated with supply chain decisions and how to appropriately model and quantify those factors. View Details

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States