Publications

2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

January 2015
Article

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details

Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing; Returns; Investing; Asset Pricing; Investment Return

July 2008
Article

Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra

We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economic Systems; Values and Beliefs; Law Enforcement; Mathematical Methods; Personal Characteristics; United States

2019
Working Paper

Birds of a Feather ... Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper analyzes how shared beliefs and preferences (or values) cause the emergence of social norms; why people may enforce norms that go against their own beliefs and preferences/values; and how this may cause a disconnect to develop between the... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Norms; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Culture; Strategy

02 Jul 2014
What Do You Think?

Are Today’s Business Heroes Challenging Our Ideas About Leadership?

Summing Up Is There Really a Formula for Great Leadership? The overall sense of responses to our question for the month is that the leadership stars of today—Jobs, Bezos, Gates, etc.,—should not cause us to change our time-honored ideas about great leadership. Among... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

02 May 2022
News

Can the Case Method Survive Another Hundred Years?

22 Sep 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Older People Are Less Pessimistic about the Health Risks of COVID-19

Keywords: by Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer

May 2021
Article

Is No News (Perceived as) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure

By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin

This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that strategic forces can lead those who possess private information to voluntarily provide it. In a simple sender-receiver game, we find that senders disclose favorable... View Details

Keywords: Communication Games; Disclosure; Unraveling; Experiments; Information; Product; Quality; Communication; Consumer Behavior

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

2015
Working Paper

Understanding Conformity: An Experimental Investigation

By: B. Douglas Bernheim and Christine L Exley

Some theories of conformity hold that social equilibrium either standardizes inferences or promotes a shared understanding of conventions and norms among individuals with fixed heterogeneous preferences (belief mechanisms). Others depict tastes as fluid and hence... View Details

Keywords: Conformity; Norms; Image Motivation; Prosocial Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Standards

2011
Working Paper

Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra

We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the U.S. over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the "Reagan revolution" in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economy; Moral Sensibility; Mathematical Methods; Opportunities; Behavior; United States

2012
Working Paper

An Outside-Inside Evolution in Gender and Professional Work

By: Lakshmi Ramarajan, Kathleen McGinn and Deborah Kolb

We study the process by which a professional service firm reshaped its activities and beliefs over nearly two decades as it adapted to shifts in the social discourse regarding gender and work. Analyzing archival data from the firm over eighteen years and... View Details

Keywords: Professional Service Firms; Social Institutions; Organizational Learning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Employment; Gender; Society; Service Industry

16 May 2022
Video

Rafaella Mazza (MBA 2023)

Article

Normative Judgments and Individual Essence

By: Julian De Freitas, Kevin P. Tobia, George E. Newman and Joshua Knobe

A growing body of research has examined how people judge the persistence of identity over time—that is, how they decide that a particular individual is the same entity from one time to the next. While a great deal of progress has been made in understanding the types... View Details

Keywords: Concepts; Essentialism; Normative Factors; Persistence; True Self; Morality; Identity; Moral Sensibility; Perception

26 May 2021
Video

Layeeka Ismail (MBA 2022)

January 2022
Article

Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Lukas Hensel, Marc Witte, Stefano Caria, Thiemo Fetzer, Stefano Fiorin, Friedrich M. Goetz, Margarita Gomez, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Gordon T. Kraft-Todd, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher Roth, Erez Yoeli and Jon M. Jachimowicz

We conducted a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 respondents between late March and early April 2020 to study beliefs and attitudes towards citizens' and governments' responses at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most respondents reported... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Government Regulation; Social Norms; Health Pandemics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Behavior; Perception; Global Range; Surveys

2022
Working Paper

Stories, Statistics and Memory

By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking

2011
Article

Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals

By: Rafael Di Tella

We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the U.S. over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the "Reagan revolution" in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Crime and Corruption