Publications

August 2006
Article

Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

22 Jul 2014
Working Paper Summaries

Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors

Keywords: by Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein & Robert W. Vishny; Banking

June 2023
Case

Block: Creating an Ecosystem of Ecosystems

By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel, Grace Headinger and Ruoshi Qi

At Investor Day 2022, Block announced a new vision for its businesses: creating an ecosystem of ecosystems. Outside the norm for many public growth companies, Block had recently acquired a variety of new business streams in the creator economy and Bitcoin despite a... View Details

12 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 12, 2006

Working PapersDo Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance? Authors:Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel Abstract Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and capabilities influence billions of dollars... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2020
Working Paper

Novel Risks

By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes

All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation

June 2018
Article

The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy... View Details

Keywords: Central Banking; Interest Rates; Policy; Bonds; Financial Markets

May 2010 (Revised August 2010)
Case

Breaking the Buck

By: Robert C. Pozen and Elizabeth Leonard

After an incredibly volatile six months since Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, Finbar McCall contemplated his options. As the investment manager of RPG Prime Reserve Fund, Inc. (RPGXX), McCall had just heard the news that the U.S. Treasury was extending the... View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Financial Crisis; Financial Management; Insurance; Investment Funds; Business and Government Relations; Business and Shareholder Relations; Financial Services Industry

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Do Managers’ Heuristics Affect R&D Performance Volatility? A Simulation Informed by the Pharmaceutical Industry

Keywords: by Francesca Gino & Gary P. Pisano; Pharmaceutical

2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

SSRN

Research Summary

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)

By: Laura Alfaro

There are different arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debt which broadly include the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model these arguments and calibrate the model to assess the quantitative importance... View Details

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

November–December 2024
Article

How to Avoid the Agility Trap

By: Jianwen Liao and Feng Zhu

Agility is all the rage in strategy circles these days. According to conventional wisdom, organizations should rapidly react to technological advances, new market dynamics, and shifting consumer preferences. But in practice this is nearly impossible to pull off,... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Change and Adaptation; Competitive Advantage; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Model

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May 2004 (Revised November 2005)
Case

Turkey: Securing Stability in a Rough Neighborhood

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Emily Thompson

After suffering years of volatility and crises, Turkey desperately sought macroeconomic and political stability in an ever-worsening region of the world. In the short term, Turkey had to repay its debt, which amounted to more than 80% of GDP. By January 2004, Turkey... View Details

Keywords: Public Sector; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking; International Finance; Privatization; Religion; Turkey; European Union

Article

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Price; Investment; Shipping Industry

Research Summary

Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: A Quantitative Approach (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)

By: Laura Alfaro

We construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt. In the model, benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. For a wide parameter, the only equilibrium is one in which... View Details

2015
Chapter

Deep Smarts as the Underpinnings of Dynamic Capabilities

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Michelle Barton

Both ordinary and dynamic capabilities depend upon the deep smarts, i.e., business-critical, experience-based knowledge, held in the heads of an organization’s top talent. This chapter examines the links between individual and organizational capabilities and presents... View Details

Keywords: Management Skills; Experience and Expertise; Innovation and Invention

February 2012 (Revised June 2012)
Case

Rospil.info

By: Paul Healy, Karthik Ramanna and Matthew Shaffer

What should business leaders do about corruption? In December 2011, four HBS alumni met to debate how to engage the unprecedented protests against Vladimir Putin's corrupt government, which had erupted in Russia in response to alleged fraud in the recent parliamentary... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Crime and Corruption; Government and Politics; Social and Collaborative Networks; Blogs; Information Industry; Russia

April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
Case

Leveraged Loans 2007

By: Andre F. Perold and Erik Stafford

The leveraged loan market was in a crisis during the summer of 2007, following many years of low realized volatility (less than 4% per annum), an index of leveraged loans had fallen over 5% in the month of July. A sudden drop in capital market prices for an asset class... View Details

Keywords: History; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Financial Crisis; Market Transactions; Disruption; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Strategy; Capital Markets; Crisis Management; Commercial Banking; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry