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2024
Working Paper

Valuing Stocks With Earnings

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting

February 2005 (Revised March 2009)
Case

Arauco (A): Forward Integration or Horizontal Expansion?

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Jorge Tarzijan and Jordan Mitchell

Celulosa Arauco is a major Chilean producer of market pulp and wood products. Owning over 1.2 million hectares of forest in Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay, the company's key advantage is the ideal growing conditions in which the company's forests are located. As of... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Advantage; Diversification; Expansion; Vertical Integration; Forest Products Industry; Chile

June 2023
Case

Block: Creating an Ecosystem of Ecosystems

By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel, Grace Headinger and Ruoshi Qi

At Investor Day 2022, Block announced a new vision for its businesses: creating an ecosystem of ecosystems. Outside the norm for many public growth companies, Block had recently acquired a variety of new business streams in the creator economy and Bitcoin despite a... View Details

Teaching Interest

Advanced Management Program

By: Michael L. Tushman

Market volatility and disruptive innovation are changing the way companies compete in every industry—and increasing the demand for business leaders who can manage globally in the age of digital transformation. Whether you are looking to move up to the executive... View Details

2017
Working Paper

Rainy Day Stocks

By: Niels Gormsen and Robin Greenwood

We study the good- and bad-times performance of equity portfolios formed on characteristics. Many characteristics associated with good performance during bad times – value, profitability, small size, safety, and total volatility – also perform well during good times.... View Details

Keywords: Performance; Stocks; Situation or Environment

2015
Chapter

Deep Smarts as the Underpinnings of Dynamic Capabilities

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Michelle Barton

Both ordinary and dynamic capabilities depend upon the deep smarts, i.e., business-critical, experience-based knowledge, held in the heads of an organization’s top talent. This chapter examines the links between individual and organizational capabilities and presents... View Details

Keywords: Management Skills; Experience and Expertise; Innovation and Invention

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2017
Working Paper

Private and Public Disclosures in Countries with Weak Institutional Environments: Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect

By: Aaron Yoon

I study firms’ use of disclosure to build investor confidence when they operate in a market where the institutions that support the supply of credible information are weak. Using the announcement of a regulation that allowed foreigners to invest in select Shanghai... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Reputation; Institutional Investing; Trust

Research Summary

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race (joint with Fabio Kanczuk)

By: Laura Alfaro

There are different arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debt which broadly include the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model these arguments and calibrate the model to assess the quantitative importance... View Details

2005
Working Paper

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

30 Sep 2014
Working Paper Summaries

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari & Fabio Kanczuk

13 Jan 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Private Equity and Industry Performance

Keywords: by Shai Bernstein, Josh Lerner, Morten Sørensen & Per Strömberg

05 Nov 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Keywords: by Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven

September 2018
Case

ProdEng: Services for Oil & Gas Extraction

By: Frank V. Cespedes, Maria Fernanda Miguel and Mariana Cal

ProdEng is a venture created as part of a PE fund and provides oil field services in Argentina. In 2016, an industry-wide unforeseen oil and gas demand slump drove ProdEng’s average service rates down by more than 37%, with EBITDA margins falling from 50% to 24% in the... View Details

Keywords: Pricing; Entrepreneurship; Sales; Marketing; Price; Strategy; Latin America; Argentina

July 2005 (Revised December 2005)
Case

General Motors U.S. Pension Funds

By: Luis M. Viceira and Helen Tung

In June 2003, General Motors Corp. (GM) successfully marketed the largest corporate debt offering in U.S. history, worth $17.6 billion. The offering included $13.6 billion worth of debt denominated in dollars, euros, and pounds and $4 billion dollars denominated in... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Bonds; Investment Return; Policy; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Auto Industry; United States

2022
Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details

Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology

August 2013
Article

The Timing of Pay

By: Christopher Parsons and E. Van Wesep

There exists large and persistent variation in not only how, but when employees are paid, a fact unexplained by existing theory. This paper develops a simple model of optimal pay timing for firms. When workers have self-control problems, they under-save... View Details

Keywords: Payday Lending; Hyperbolic Discounting; Self-control Problems; Pay Frequency; Payday Loan Legislation; Paycheck Frequency; Time Inconsistency; Wages; Behavior; Employee Relationship Management

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January 2001 (Revised May 2010)
Case

BP Amoco (A): Policy Statement on the Use of Project Finance

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane

Following the BP/Amoco merger in December 1998, CFO David Watson asked Bill Young to recommend when and under what circumstances the firm should use external project finance instead of internal corporate funds to finance new capital investments. As part of this... View Details

Keywords: Project Finance; Mergers and Acquisitions; Policy; Capital Budgeting

February 2012 (Revised June 2012)
Case

Rospil.info

By: Paul Healy, Karthik Ramanna and Matthew Shaffer

What should business leaders do about corruption? In December 2011, four HBS alumni met to debate how to engage the unprecedented protests against Vladimir Putin's corrupt government, which had erupted in Russia in response to alleged fraud in the recent parliamentary... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Crime and Corruption; Government and Politics; Social and Collaborative Networks; Blogs; Information Industry; Russia

April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
Case

Leveraged Loans 2007

By: Andre F. Perold and Erik Stafford

The leveraged loan market was in a crisis during the summer of 2007, following many years of low realized volatility (less than 4% per annum), an index of leveraged loans had fallen over 5% in the month of July. A sudden drop in capital market prices for an asset class... View Details

Keywords: History; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Financial Crisis; Market Transactions; Disruption; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competitive Strategy; Capital Markets; Crisis Management; Commercial Banking; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry

2023
Working Paper

Dynamic Pricing, Intertemporal Spillovers, and Efficiency

By: Alexander J. MacKay, Dennis Svartbäck and Anders G. Ekholm

Pricing technology that allows firms to rapidly adjust prices has two potential benefits. Time-varying prices can respond to high-frequency demand shocks to generate greater revenues, and they can also be used to smooth out demand to reduce costs. Using data... View Details

Keywords: Price; Consumer Behavior; Applications and Software; Volatility

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