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Shocks
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- 2017
- Working Paper
The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets
By: Brian S. Chen, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the... View Details
Keywords: Small Business; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; System Shocks; Credit; Labor; United States
- June 12, 2017
- Article
Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Markets: A Comparison of the Global Crisis and the Asian Financial Crisis
By: Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza
Leverage levels in emerging market firms rose dramatically in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column examines whether concerns of a repeat of the Asian financial crisis, which was largely attributed to corporate financial roots, are justified. While firm... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets
By: Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza
This paper documents a set of new stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility for emerging market firms following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate... View Details
- May 2017
- Article
Distracted Shareholders and Corporate Actions
By: Elisabeth Kempf, Alberto Manconi and Oliver Spalt
Investor attention matters for corporate actions. Our new identification approach constructs firm-level shareholder "distraction" measures, by exploiting exogenous shocks to unrelated parts of institutional shareholders' portfolios. Firms with "distracted" shareholders... View Details
- April 2017
- Article
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details
- March 2017
- Article
Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence
By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Suraj Srinivasan and Liang Tan
We provide new evidence on the agency theory of corporate tax avoidance (Slemrod, 2004; Crocker and Slemrod, 2005; Chen and Chu, 2005) by showing that increases in institutional ownership are associated with increases in tax avoidance. Using the Russell index... View Details
- February 2017
- Article
Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps
By: Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and Christopher J. Malloy
We demonstrate that simply by using the ethnic makeup surrounding a firm’s location, we can predict, on average, which trade links are valuable for firms. Using customs and port authority data on the international shipments of all U.S. publicly traded firms, we show... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Intellectual Baggage of Ethnic Migrant Inventors: Transfer and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders
Ethnic migrant inventors might differ from locals in terms of knowledge they bring to host firms. We study the role of first-generation ethnic migrant inventors in cross-border transfer of knowledge previously locked within the cultural context of their home regions.... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents
By: David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Pian Shu and Gary Pisano
Manufacturing is the locus of U.S. innovation, accounting for more than three quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The rise of import competition from China has represented a major competitive shock to the sector, which in theory could benefit or stifle innovation. In... View Details
- November 2016
- Supplement
Uber in China: Driving in the Gray Zone (B)
By: William C. Kirby, Yuanzhuo Wang, Shuang L. Frost and Adam K. Frost
Starting in 2014, for two years Uber had fought an intense, costly battle for China’s ridesharing market with well-financed and well-connected domestic Chinese competitors. During this time, Uber also had to respond to an ever-shifting regulatory landscape that looked... View Details
- November 2016 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Brexit
By: Laura Alfaro, Jesse Schreger and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
After more than 40 years of membership in the European Union, the United Kingdom voted via referendum to separate from the EU on June 23, 2016. Following the surprise verdict (termed Brexit), a political upheaval followed, with many ministers, including Prime Minister... View Details
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath
By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
The short-termism of lenders amplifies boom-bust credit cycles, leading in turn to real costs for the aggregate economy. During the U.S. housing credit boom, publicly-traded banks increased mortgage lending activity and relaxed standards much more than privately-held... View Details
- February 2016
- Article
Positive and Normative Judgments Implicit in U.S. Tax Policy, and the Costs of Unequal Growth and Recessions
By: Benjamin B. Lockwood and Matthew Weinzierl
Calculating the welfare implications of changes to economic policy or shocks to the economy requires economists to decide on a normative criterion. One way to make that decision is to elicit the relevant moral criteria from real-world policy choices, converting a... View Details
- 2016
- Chapter
Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration
By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and William R. Kerr
The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences, there is a specific pattern... View Details
- August 2015
- Article
Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks
By: Victoria Ivashina, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy C. Stein
A large share of dollar-denominated lending is done by non-U.S. banks, particularly European banks. We present a model in which such banks cut dollar lending more than euro lending in response to a shock to their credit quality. Because these banks rely on wholesale... View Details
- August 2015
- Article
Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices
By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration
By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and William Kerr
The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences there is a specific pattern... View Details
- Article
Liquidity in Retirement Savings Systems: An International Comparison
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Joshua Hurwitz, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
We compare the liquidity that six developed countries have built into their employer-based defined contribution (DC) retirement schemes. In Germany, Singapore, and the UK, withdrawals are essentially banned no matter what kind of transitory income shock the household... View Details
Keywords: Saving; Financial Liquidity; Retirement; Canada; Germany; Australia; United Kingdom; United States; Singapore
- March 2015
- Article
Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
Changes in monetary policy have surprisingly strong effects on forward real rates in the distant future. A 100 basis point increase in the two-year nominal yield on a Federal Open Markets Committee announcement day is associated with a 42 basis point increase in the... View Details