Publications

Article

No Taxation Without Information: Deterrence and Self-Enforcement in the Value Added Tax

By: Dina Pomeranz

Claims that the VAT facilitates tax enforcement by generating paper trails on transactions between firms contributed to widespread VAT adoption worldwide, but there is surprisingly little evidence. This paper analyzes the role of third-party information for VAT... View Details

Keywords: Taxation; Product Development; Chile

Article

The Effect of Providing Peer Information on Retirement Savings Decisions

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Katherine L. Milkman

Using a field experiment in a 401(k) plan, we measure the effect of disseminating information about peer behavior on savings. Low-saving employees received simplified plan enrollment or contribution increase forms. A randomized subset of forms stated the fraction of... View Details

Keywords: Saving; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement

Article

The Importance of Being Causal

By: Iavor I Bojinov, Albert Chen and Min Liu

Causal inference is the study of how actions, interventions, or treatments affect outcomes of interest. The methods that have received the lion’s share of attention in the data science literature for establishing causation are variations of randomized experiments.... View Details

Keywords: Causal Inference; Observational Studies; Cross-sectional Studies; Panel Studies; Interrupted Time-series; Instrumental Variables

Article

Best Practices for Differentiated Products Demand Estimation with PyBLP

Differentiated products demand systems are a workhorse for understanding the price effects of mergers, the value of new goods, and the contribution of products to seller networks. Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) provide a flexible random coefficients logit model... View Details

The strength of weak ties is an influential social-scientific theory that stresses the importance of weak associations (e.g., acquaintance versus close friendship) in influencing the transmission of information through social networks. However, causal tests of... View Details

April 2020
Article

Designs for Estimating the Treatment Effect in Networks with Interference

By: Ravi Jagadeesan, Natesh S. Pillai and Alexander Volfovsky

In this paper, we introduce new, easily implementable designs for drawing causal inference from randomized experiments on networks with interference. Inspired by the idea of matching in observational studies, we introduce the notion of considering a treatment... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Design; Network Inference; Neyman Estimator; Symmetric Interference Model; Homophily

28 Nov 2018
HBS Seminar

Paul Niehaus, University of California San Diego, Department of Economics

The Discipline of Business Experimentation

The data you already have can't tell you how customers will react to innovations. To discover if a truly novel concept will succeed, you must subject it to a rigorous experiment. In most companies, tests do not adhere to scientific and statistical principles. As... View Details

December 2014
Article

The Discipline of Business Experimentation

By: Stefan Thomke and Jim Manzi

The data you already have can't tell you how customers will react to innovations. To discover if a truly novel concept will succeed, you must subject it to a rigorous experiment. In most companies, tests do not adhere to scientific and statistical principles. As a... View Details

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2024
Working Paper

The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance

By: Nicholas G. Otis, Rowan Clarke, Solène Delecourt, David Holtz and Rembrand Koning

Scalable and low-cost AI assistance has the potential to improve firm decision-making and economic performance. However, running a business involves a myriad of open-ended problems, making it difficult to know whether recent AI advances can help business owners make... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Performance Improvement; Small Business; Decision Choices and Conditions; Kenya

SSRN

Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers' decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details

Article

Marketing Complex Financial Products in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Rainfall Insurance in India

By: Sarthak Gaurav, Shawn A. Cole and Jeremy Tobacman

Recent financial liberalization in emerging economies has led to the rapid introduction of new financial products. Lack of experience with financial products, low levels of education, and low financial literacy may slow adoption of these products. This article reports... View Details

Keywords: Literacy; Insurance; Marketing; Decisions; Demand and Consumers; Financial Instruments; Emerging Markets; Education; Personal Finance; Agribusiness; Developing Countries and Economies; Innovation and Invention; Gujarat

Article

Diversity and Team Performance in a Kenyan Organization

By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Tavneet Suri

We present the results from a field experiment on team diversity. Individuals working as door-to-door canvassers for a non-profit organization were randomly assigned a teammate, a supervisor, and a list of individuals to canvass. This created random variation within... View Details

Keywords: Ethnic Diversity; Organizational Behavior; Labor Management; Groups and Teams; Diversity; Performance

2021
Working Paper

Quantifying the Value of Iterative Experimentation

By: Iavor I Bojinov and Jialiang Mao

Over the past decade, most technology companies and a growing number of conventional firms have adopted online experimentation (or A/B testing) into their product development process. Initially, A/B testing was deployed as a static procedure in which an experiment was... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Value Creation; Research

2023
Working Paper

Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation

By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov

Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior

SSRN

Forthcoming
Article

Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt

By: Marco Di Maggio, Ankit Kalda and Vincent Yao

This paper examines the effect of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We exploit an episode of plausibly random debt discharge due to the loss of paperwork for thousands of borrowers to examine the effects of private student debt relief... View Details

Keywords: Student Debt; Private Student Loans; Legal Settlement; Mobility; Debt Collection; Debt Relief; Personal Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Outcome or Result

SSRN

July–September 2018
Article

Memory Bias in Observer-Performance Literature

By: Tamara M. Haygood, Samantha N. Smith and Jia Sun

The objective of our study was to determine how authors of published observer–performance experiments dealt with memory bias in study design. We searched American Journal of Roentgenology online and Radiology using “observer study” and “observer performance.” We... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Research