Publications

07 Oct 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Keywords: by Wenxin Du, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger

2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

April 2001
Background Note

Exchange Rate Terminology and Analytics

An introduction to the concept of exchange rates, simple analytics regarding currency appreciation and devaluation, and real and nominal exchange rates. Concludes with a series of examples that illustrate how shifts in exchange rates and inflation can affect firms'... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Currency Exchange Rate; Inflation and Deflation

June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
Teaching Note

Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

2023
Working Paper

Complexity and Time

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

We provide experimental evidence that core intertemporal choice anomalies -- including extreme short-run impatience, structural estimates of present bias, hyperbolicity and transitivity violations -- are driven by complexity rather than time or risk preferences. First,... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Motivation and Incentives

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December 2005 (Revised July 2006)
Case

What Should the Federal Reserve Do? Thoughts of Greenspan and Bernanke

By: Lakshmi Iyer and Noel Maurer

Presents remarks by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke on monetary policy, explicit inflation targets, and the relative merits of asset price targeting. View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Asset Pricing; Central Banking; Financial Strategy; Policy; Banking Industry

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

18 Feb 2016
News

Uncertainty and Confusion: Parsing the FOMC Minutes

June 2011 (Revised August 2011)
Background Note

China and the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate

By: Aldo Musacchio

This note explains how the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages (some say manipulate) the dollar-yuan exchange rate. It discusses briefly the process of sterilization in China and the possible costs for the PBOC. Therefore, the note summarizes some of the main... View Details

Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; China

19 Feb 2007
Research & Ideas

Inexperienced Investors and Market Bubbles

MacKay observed in 1852, "even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen dabbled in tulips." These days it's not just chimney-sweeps who are lured to investment heartbreak. New research suggests that even professional fund managers—if... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services

October 2012 (Revised April 2017)
Case

Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth

By: Laura Alfaro, Hilary White and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason

Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details

Keywords: Capital Controls; Inflation; Exchange Rates; Stimulus; Competitiveness; Productivity Growth; Foreign Investment; Infrastructure; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Brazil

Article

The Market Design and Policy of Online Review Platforms

By: Benjamin Edelman

I present the institutions and incentives of online reviews, including attracting initial reviews, assuring truthful reviews of genuine experiences, and avoiding inflated or deceptive reviews. I also explore the competition and consumer protection concerns associated... View Details

Keywords: Reviews; Reputation; Platforms; Marketplaces; Deception; Market Design; Multi-Sided Platforms; Law; Online Technology; Information Technology Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Accommodations Industry; Retail Industry

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25 Aug 2018
News

Are Superstar Firms and Amazon Effects Reshaping the Economy?

March 2013
Case

Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; Moscow

2023
Working Paper

Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Debt Securities

26 Jan 2022
News

Fed Plays Wait and See with Monetary Policy

August 2015
Article

Price Coherence and Excessive Intermediation

By: Benjamin Edelman and Julian Wright

Suppose an intermediary provides a benefit to buyers when they purchase from sellers using the intermediary's technology. We develop a model to show that the intermediary would want to restrict sellers from charging buyers more for transactions it intermediates. With... View Details

Keywords: Intermediaries; Platforms; Two-Sided Markets; Vertical Restraints; Two-Sided Platforms

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April 2015
Tutorial

Introduction to International Macroeconomics

By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This tutorial is a web-based, interactive program which will provide students with an introduction to the basic principles of macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. View Details

Keywords: International Macroeconomics; International Economy; Current Account; Unemployment; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Gdp; Macroeconomics; Money; Business Cycles; Inflation and Deflation; Trade