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      • Faculty Publications  (567)

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      • Article

      Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley V. Whillans, Jonathan Zinman and Angela L. Duckworth
      Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens’ decisions and outcomes. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time... View Details
      Keywords: Policy Making; Behavioral Science; Behavior; Change; Decision Making; Policy
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley V. Whillans, Jonathan Zinman, and Angela L. Duckworth. "Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science." Nature 600, no. 7889 (December 16, 2021): 478–483.
      • Article

      Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence

      By: Ethan Rouen, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Using a novel dataset, we show that components of firms' GAAP earnings stemming from ancillary business activities or transitory shocks are significant in frequency and magnitude. These components have grown over time and are dispersed across various sections of the... View Details
      Keywords: Core Earnings; Transitory Earnings; Non-operating Earnings; Quantitative Disclosures; Equity Valuation; Big Data; Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Valuation; Analytics and Data Science
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      Rouen, Ethan, Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence." Journal of Financial Economics 142, no. 3 (December 2021): 1068–1091.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

      By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
      We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
      Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • Article

      Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

      By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou
      Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure
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      Frankel, Richard, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka, and Yuan Zou. "Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients." Accounting Review 96, no. 6 (November 2021): 215–238.
      • September 2021 (Revised November 2022)
      • Case

      Community Solutions

      By: Brian Trelstad and Tom Quinn
      Community Solutions was an anti-homelessness nonprofit founded in 2011 after protagonist Rosanne Haggerty grew frustrated with the limited impact of traditional housing and outreach strategies. It set an ambitious goal, reached in some partner communities, of ending... View Details
      Keywords: Change; Change Management; Disruption; Transformation; Communication; Communication Strategy; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Entrepreneurship; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Capital Budgeting; Capital Markets; Country; Government Administration; Government Legislation; Housing; Disruptive Innovation; Innovation and Invention; Innovation Strategy; Knowledge Sharing; Leading Change; Resource Allocation; Mission and Purpose; Performance Evaluation; Performance Improvement; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Enterprise; Nonprofit Organizations; Human Needs; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Societal Protocols; Poverty; Welfare; Well-being; System; Equality and Inequality; Consulting Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States; New York (city, NY); Florida; Texas
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      Trelstad, Brian, and Tom Quinn. "Community Solutions." Harvard Business School Case 322-021, September 2021. (Revised November 2022.)
      • September 2021 (Revised December 2021)
      • Case

      Spire, the CubeSat Revolution, and the Government as a Space Data Customer

      By: Matthew Weinzierl, Mehak Sarang and Brendan L. Rosseau
      This case outlines the rise of Spire Global, a young space company using CubeSats to provide weather data and weather prediction services. In addition to tracing the evolution of a space startup from novel idea to publicly-traded company, the case also examines the... View Details
      Keywords: Space; Government Contracting; Remote Sensing; Satellites; Business Startups; Public Sector; Cost vs Benefits; Competition; Weather; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Weinzierl, Matthew, Mehak Sarang, and Brendan L. Rosseau. "Spire, the CubeSat Revolution, and the Government as a Space Data Customer." Harvard Business School Case 722-013, September 2021. (Revised December 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Article

      An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services

      By: David A. Maber, Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy
      This paper uses a proprietary panel dataset to categorize and quantify the activities that sell-side brokerage analysts use to build and sustain their network of buy-side client relations. We then examine the marginal impact of these activities on key analyst outcome... View Details
      Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Ratings; Brokerage Commissions; Earnings Forecasts
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      Maber, David A., Boris Groysberg, and Paul M. Healy. "An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services." European Accounting Review 30, no. 4 (2021): 827–853.
      • August 2021 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Data Science at the Warriors

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov and Michael Parzen
      The case explores the development and early growth of a data science team at the Golden State Warriors, an NBA team based in San Francisco. The case begins by explaining the initial rationale for investing in data science, then covers a debate on the appropriate team... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Digital Marketing; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Information Technology; Sports Industry; San Francisco; United States
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., and Michael Parzen. "Data Science at the Warriors." Harvard Business School Case 622-048, August 2021. (Revised February 2024.)
      • August 2021
      • Case

      Precision Paint Co.

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
      Keywords: Regression; Prediction; Forecasting; Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Precision Paint Co." Harvard Business School Case 622-055, August 2021.
      • August 2021 (Revised November 2023)
      • Supplement

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 622-041, August 2021. (Revised November 2023.)
      • August 2021
      • Supplement

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Growth and Development Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Consolidation; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 622-702, August 2021.
      • Article

      Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations

      By: Sushant Agarwal, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in critical domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there has been a growing emphasis on developing techniques for explaining these black boxes in a post hoc manner. In this work, we analyze two... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Black Box Explanations; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology
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      Agarwal, Sushant, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 38th (2021).
      • June 2021
      • Technical Note

      Introduction to Linear Regression

      By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This technical note introduces (from an applied point of view) the theory and application of simple and multiple linear regression. The motivation for the model is introduced, as well as how to interpret the summary output with regard to prediction and statistical... View Details
      Keywords: Linear Regression; Regression; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory; Compensation and Benefits; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science
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      Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "Introduction to Linear Regression." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-086, June 2021.
      • 2021
      • Chapter

      Digital Transformation and the Salesforce: Observations, Warnings, and Recommendations

      By: Frank V. Cespedes
      Sales is a crucial test for organizational change, including productive use (or not) of new technologies. Changes in selling always have wider organizational implications, because so many other decisions and resource commitments in firms depend upon demand forecasts... View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Salesforce Management; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Digital Transformation
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      Cespedes, Frank V. "Digital Transformation and the Salesforce: Observations, Warnings, and Recommendations." In Managing Digital Transformation: Understanding the Strategic Process, edited by Andreas Hinterhuber, Tiziano Vescovi, and Francesca Checchinato. Routledge, 2021.
      • May 2021 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

      By: Willy C. Shih and Adina Wong
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chains; Digital; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C., and Adina Wong. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges." Harvard Business School Case 621-115, May 2021. (Revised July 2021.)
      • May 2021
      • Case

      Roku 2021

      By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher
      This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and streaming media (that is, Look Forward) by... View Details
      Keywords: Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Yoffie, David B., and Daniel Fisher. "Roku 2021." Harvard Business School Case 721-480, May 2021.
      • May 2021 (Revised February 2024)
      • Teaching Note

      THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
      THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details
      Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Predictive Analytics; App Development; "Marketing Analytics"; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Jill Avery. "THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 521-097, May 2021. (Revised February 2024.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

      By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making
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      Choi, Ki-Soon, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-126, May 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective

      By: Srikant Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang and Siyu Zhang
      We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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      Datar, Srikant, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Siyu Zhang. "Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-113, December 2020.
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