Forecasts - Publications - Faculty & Research

17 Mar 2011
Research & Ideas

Harvard Business School Faculty Comment on Crisis in Japan

forecasted GDP growth rates for Japan by 0.5% for the first quarter of this year, and by more than 1.5% for the second quarter. The financial consequences are equally alarming. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 6.2% at the market's... View Details

Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty

22 Apr 2020
Research Event

How Investors Are Sizing Up Climate Change’s Risks—and Opportunities

the US Midwest and one from the US South, Cromwell demonstrated the analytical impact of overlaying the heat index forecast on these two locations. The bonds have nearly identical credit ratings and yields, even though the Southern... View Details

Keywords: by Danielle Kost; Financial Services

22 Apr 2002
Lessons from the Classroom

Entrepreneurship: It Can Be Taught

interviewing techniques, term sheets—the kinds of things that people who start companies have to do.— Paul Marshall The second is forecasting cash flows, which is obviously not unique to entrepreneurs. We try to get students to recognize... View Details

Keywords: by Staff

January 2017 (Revised August 2017)
Case

Earl Gordon - Eastern Circle

By: Steven Rogers and Greg White

This case follows an African-American entrepreneur through the process of sourcing a potential acquisition, valuing a company, and securing the funding to purchase the company. This entrepreneur must decide if he should close the deal and which financing term sheet to... View Details

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04 Jun 2013
First Look

First Look: June 4

correlations they produce are driven not only by analysts' systematic forecast errors but also by functional form assumptions. This finding suggests that correcting for the former alone is unlikely to fully resolve these measurement-error... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

20 Jun 2016
Research & Ideas

When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong

implications for anyone looking to impress others, for those who are tasked with forecasting consumer behavior, or for salespeople who consult with customers on prospective purchases. In short, it’s dangerous to predict what others will... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail

February 2013 (Revised December 2015)
Case

Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency

By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira R. Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice

Groom Energy Solutions helps organizations reduce their energy use and costs through the implementation of energy efficiency measures, which create long-term financial and environmental benefits. With early success serving customers in the cold storage and industrial... View Details

Keywords: Groom Energy Solutions; Jon Guerster; Salem, MA; Energy Management; Energy Efficiency Paradox; Sustainability Management; Manufacturing; Cold Storage; Commercial Real Estate; Enterprise Smart Grid; Carbon Accounting; LED Lighting; Sustainability Research; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Entrepreneurship; Energy Entrepreneurship; Energy Services; Electricity; Startup; Expansion; Growth; Sustainability; Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Energy Conservation; Revenue; Geographic Location; Human Resources; Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Operations; Service Delivery; Strategic Planning; Science; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Society; Social Issues; Technology Adoption; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Utilities Industry; United States; Boston

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01 Sep 2015
First Look

First Look -- September 1, 2015

contrast, standard factor-model-based proxies fail to exhibit predictive power internationally. We show analytically and empirically that the importance of ROE in forecasting returns depends on the quality of accounting information.... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

15 Apr 2014
First Look

First Look: April 15

between firms' CSR ratings and analysts' forecast errors, indicating that learning is unlikely to account for the observed shifts in recommendations. Publisher's link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1507874 August 2013... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

24 Apr 2012
First Look

First Look: April 24

2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the world's highest debt burden, whether expressed as a percentage of GDP or government revenue. Guided by recent global events, Bass... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

16 Oct 2013
Op-Ed

Response to Readers: Combating Climate Change with Nuclear Power and Fracking

newly approved Gen III+ nuclear reactors (e.g., AP-1000 variants or even the still-to-be-approved, but largely derivative Small Modular Reactors) are not likely to produce power cheaply enough to change the currently forecast build out of... View Details

Keywords: by Joe Lassiter; Energy; Utilities

January 2022
Technical Note

Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk

This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans

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March 2011 (Revised February 2014)
Case

Cree, Inc.: Which Bright Future?

By: David J. Collis, Mary Furey and Matthew Shaffer

After its founding in the late 1980s, Cree Inc. quickly grew into a major player in the emerging LED market. By 2007, technological improvements in LEDs had made them suitable for TV, computer, and mobile "backlighting"; and concerns over global warning led to calls to... View Details

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11 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 11, 2018

activity. When our measure is high, safe bonds fall in value and risky assets rally, forecasting a boom in investment. Risk appetite is closely linked to investors’ expectations of future risk and rises following positive macroeconomic... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

02 Mar 2015
Research & Ideas

‘Retail Revolution’ Excerpt: The Scale of the Ecommerce Threat

forecasting can be more accurate and replenishment more timely, and thus markdowns, shrink costs, and working capital needs are reduced. Online fulfillment and home delivery also create traffic problems for brick-and-mortar retailers.... View Details

Keywords: Re: Rajiv Lal; Retail

01 Jun 2007
News

Up from the Ashes

industrial capitalism has produced the greatest per capita output of goods ever recorded. And, in direct contravention of the Marxian forecast that workers’ share of income will steadily fall, Schumpeter repeats that “relative shares have... View Details

Keywords: Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Educational Services

January 1991 (Revised March 1992)
Case

USA Today

By: Robert L. Simons

USA Today is a national newspaper struggling to achieve profitability. This case focuses on the use of management control systems to identify emerging opportunities and the formulation of new strategies. The interactive system used by top managers--the Friday... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Managerial Roles; Forecasting and Prediction; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Labor and Management Relations; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Journalism and News Industry; United States

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01 Dec 2015
First Look

December 1, 2015

standard forecasting regressions reveal that increases in p*t lead to economic downturns. Second, disaster risk is priced in the cross section of U.S. equity returns. A zero-cost equity portfolio with exposure to disasters earns... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2021
Supplement

Aster DM Healthcare: Budget Exercise

By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein

In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had... View Details

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September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
Case

River Remedy: Navigating Mississippi’s Medical Marijuana Market

By: Robin Greenwood, Richard S. Ruback and Robert Ialenti

MBA student William Chism, the founder of a fully integrated medical marijuana company based in Mississippi, must respond to a significant disruption in the fledgling industry. In late 2023, Rapid Analytics, one of two active licensed testing facilities, has its... View Details