Publications

22 Feb 2022
Research & Ideas

When Will the Hot Housing Market Finally Start to Cool?

only 910,000 homes on the market remained unsold nationwide, an all-time low. And Zillow, the online real estate sales platform, recently revised its 2022 forecast upward, predicting home prices will surge 16 percent nationwide. The... View Details

Keywords: by Christine Pazzanese, Harvard Gazette

10 Dec 2013
First Look

First Look: December 10

interaction between analysts and managers on conference calls. The evidence suggests that private interaction with management is an important communication channel for analysts for reasons other than firm-specific forecasting news. ... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Article

The Best of Both Worlds: Integrating Conscious and Unconscious Thought Best Solves Complex Decisions

Two studies address the debate over whether conscious or unconscious mental processes best handle complex decisions. According to Unconscious Thought Theory (Dijksterhuis & Nordgren, 2006), both modes of thinking have particular advantages: conscious thought can follow... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Information; Knowledge Management; Management Skills; Management Style; Measurement and Metrics; Success; Research; Cognition and Thinking; Personal Characteristics; Perception

August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

No Labels and the 2024 Presidential Insurance Plan

By: Robert F. White and Tom Quinn

After observing record voter dissatisfaction with the choices in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—Democratic nominee President Joe Biden and Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—the bipartisan nonprofit No Labels decided to reserve ballot access in... View Details

Keywords: Disruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Lawsuits and Litigation; Failure; System Shocks; Political Elections; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; United States

Educators

Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

April 2012
Article

Bouncing Out of the Banking System: An Empirical Analysis of Involuntary Bank Account Closures

By: Dennis Campbell, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez and Peter Tufano

Using a new database, we document the factors that relate to the extent of involuntary consumer bank account closure resulting from excessive overdraft activity. Consumers who have accounts involuntarily closed for overdraft activity may have limited or no access to... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Customers; Social Issues; Outcome or Result; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Banks and Banking; Policy; Personal Characteristics; Credit; Employment; United States

September 2011
Supplement

TopCoder (B)

By: Karim R. Lakhani, Eric Lonstein and Stephanie Pokrywa

Metrology plays a key role in the manufacture of mechanical components. Traditionally it is used extensively in a pre-process stage where a manufacturer does process planning, design, and ramp-up, and in post-process off-line inspection to establish proof of quality.... View Details

Keywords: Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Change Management; Production; Machinery and Machining; Planning; Quality; Competition; Diversification; Technology Adoption; Measurement and Metrics; Product Design; Manufacturing Industry

August 2013
Article

The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity

By: Michael Ewens, Charles Jones and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

This paper explores the private equity and venture capital (VC) markets and extends the standard principal-agent problem between the investors and venture capitalist to show how it alters the interaction between the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur. Since the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Contracts; Investment; Competition; Agency Theory; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory; Diversification

February 2024
Supplement

ReNew (B): A New Direction

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen

The global renewables sector was in a slump, but the Indian market was booming. India’s largest renewable electricity generator, ReNew, faced a dilemma: it traded on the Nasdaq in New York, but saw huge opportunity in the Indian market. In response, CEO Sumant Sinha... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Mission and Purpose; Expansion; Market Entry and Exit; Energy Industry; Asia; India

10 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 10

trading volume, and more dispersion in analyst forecasts following the calls. Further, the capital market's response to linguistic complexity is limited to firms for which there is greater demand for English-language conference calls. Our... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

1998
Journal Article

Ford's Model-T: Pricing over the Product Life Cycle

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

The pricing decisions monopolistic firms make over time are determined to a large extent by the complex interplay of two distinct sets of elements: demand- and supply-based considerations. Demand factors include the possibilities of (a) exercising dynamic price... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Information; Demand and Consumers; Monopoly; Product; Sales; Complexity; Auto Industry

July – August 2011
Article

The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee

Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details

Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey

2010
Working Paper

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States