Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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20 Jul 2018
News

Can Economists and Humanists Ever Be Friends?

August 2016
Case

Collective Academy

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Christopher Payton

This case is about making the decision to become an entrepreneur and early challenges in setting up a business model and team. In 2015, Pato Bichara co-founded Collective Academy to create an affordable, three-year undergraduate experience to infuse innovation into... View Details

Keywords: Early Stage; Team Building; Business Startup; Trade-offs; Risk; Founders' Agreements; Education; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Business Startups; Decision Making; Technology Industry; Mexico; Latin America; United States

Fall 2014
Article

Seesaws and Social Security Benefits Indexing

By: Matthew Weinzierl

The price indexation of Social Security benefit payments has emerged in recent years as a flashpoint of debate in the United States. I characterize the direct effects that changes in that price index would have on retirees who differ in their initial wealth at... View Details

Keywords: Retirement; Compensation and Benefits; United States

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March 2009 (Revised November 2021)
Case

The Walt Disney Company and Pixar Inc.: To Acquire or Not to Acquire?

By: Juan Alcacer, David J. Collis and Mary Furey

Soon after Robert Iger took over as CEO of the Walt Disney Company in late 2005, he turned his attention toward Pixar, the animation studio with which Disney had worked since 1991 and was responsible for producing hits such as Toy Story and Finding Nemo. Disney's own... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Making; Animation Entertainment; Film Entertainment; Contracts; Distribution; Partners and Partnerships; Vertical Integration; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

April 2025
Article

Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile

By: Shunyuan Zhang, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar and Xupin Zhang

Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling... View Details

Keywords: Sharing Economy; Airbnb; Image Feature Extraction; Machine Learning; Facial Expressions; Prejudice and Bias; Nonverbal Communication; E-commerce; Consumer Behavior; Perception

October 2019 (Revised January 2020)
Case

Dulcie Madden (A)—Growth or Exit?

By: Shikhar Ghosh, Christopher Payton and Shweta Bagai

This is part of a three-case series that follows Dulcie Madden's journey as a founder over five years. Case (A) is about managing growth and cash flow; Case (B) is about the exit decision and conditions on a sale; Case (C) shows Madden dealing with adversity and the... View Details

November 2016 (Revised May 2017)
Case

The Black List

By: Henry McGee and Sarah McAra

Franklin Leonard founded The Black List in 2005 as an innovative approach to identifying potential hit movie scripts via crowdsourcing. As the annual Black List proved to hold the scripts of some of Hollywood’s most successful films, from “Slumdog Millionaire” to... View Details

Keywords: Screenwriting; Independent Production; Hollywood; Film Development; Film Distribution; Film Financing; Manging Uncertainty; Barriers To Entry; Globalization; Digitalization; Film Entertainment; Entrepreneurship; Marketing; Media; Strategy; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; United States

February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
Supplement

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)

By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Global Range; Crisis Management; Disruption

March 2009
Case

Incept LLC and Confluent Surgical (A)

By: Bhaskar Chakravorti, Toby E. Stuart and James Weber

A venture capitalist must decide whether to invest in a medical technology company that licenses intellectual property from a privately held IP holding company based on a platform technology. Entrepreneurs Amar Sawhney and Fred Khosravi founded Incept LLC to... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Entrepreneurship; Intellectual Property; Rights; Agreements and Arrangements; Partners and Partnerships; Trust; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry

2025
Working Paper

With a Little Help from My Family: Informal Startup Financing

By: Brian K. Baik, Johan Ludvig S. Karlsen and Katja Kisseleva

Using Norwegian administrative data, we identify family equity investments in startups and examine their effects on investor returns and firm behavior. Informal investors earn lower returns than external individuals, and the firms they back are less likely to secure... View Details

Keywords: Early Stage Finance; Informal Investment; Household Finance; Risk Taking; Entrepreneurial Finance; Entrepreneurship; Personal Finance; Family and Family Relationships; Business Startups; Investment; Norway

02 Jun 2017
News

Why Finance Needs More Humanity, and Why Humanity Needs Finance

October 2024 (Revised October 2024)
Case

Parexel: Scaling Up and Industry Dynamics

By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Ben Creo

Through the lens of biopharmaceutical contract research organization (CRO) PAREXEL, this case traces the evolution of the firm as it reinvents itself in response to the transformation of the CRO sector from a small, secondary cluster of firms into a major player with... View Details

Keywords: Research; Innovation and Invention; Business Model; Transformation; Globalization; Information Technology; Competitive Advantage; Pharmaceutical Industry

18 Feb 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Urbanization with Chinese Characteristics? China’s Gamble for Modernization

Keywords: by Kristen Looney and Meg Rithmire; Public Administration; Real Estate

Forthcoming
Article

Public Perception and Autonomous Vehicle Liability

By: Julian De Freitas, Xilin Zhou, Margherita Atzei, Shoshana Boardman and Luigi Di Lillo

The deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the accompanying societal and economic benefits will greatly depend on how much liability AV firms will have to carry for accidents involving these vehicles, which in turn impacts their insurability and associated... View Details

Keywords: Moral Sensibility; Judgments; Legal Liability; Insurance; Perception

2024
Report

Overcoming Barriers to Resolving Gaza and Beyond

By: James K. Sebenius

As of early January 2024, discussion of the Gaza war heavily focuses on its humanitarian costs, cease fire possibilities, hostage prospects, and “day after” options. Yet what longer-term strategy guides actions on these vital issues while offering a more positive... View Details

Keywords: Negotiation; War; International Relations; Israel; Middle East

Research Summary

Corporate transparency and information disclosure strategies

By: Michael W. Toffel

This research focuses on transparency and information disclosure strategies, a topic of growing importance in environmental sustainability, corporate strategy, stakeholder relations, and public policy. My prior research in this area explored why... View Details

Keywords: Transparency; Disclosure Strategy; Disclosure; Environment; Environmental Performance; Regulation; Supply Chain; Environmental Sustainability; United States

2020
Working Paper

Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi

In SIR models, homogeneous or with a network structure, infection rates are assumed to be exogenous. However, individuals adjust their behavior. Using daily data for 89 cities worldwide, we document that mobility falls in response to fear, as approximated by Google... View Details

Keywords: Social Interactions; Pandemics; Mobility; Cities; SIR Networks; Social Preferences; Social Planner; Targeted Policies; Health Pandemics; Interpersonal Communication; Behavior; Policy

Research Summary

Privatization, Regulatory Reform and Management Strategy

Alexander Dyck's research illustrates why privatization and deregulation often improve performance and factors that separate success from failure. A simplistic model of privatization and regulatory reform assumed that the shift from government to private sector... View Details

2011
Working Paper

'Last-place Aversion': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Ryan W. Buell, Taly Reich and Michael I. Norton

Why do low-income individuals often oppose redistribution? We hypothesize that an aversion to being in "last place" undercuts support for redistribution, with low-income individuals punishing those slightly below themselves to keep someone "beneath" them. In laboratory... View Details

Keywords: Wages; Surveys; Wealth and Poverty; Behavior; Income; Research; Rank and Position; Attitudes; Personal Characteristics; Economics

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2017
Working Paper

Optimal Tilts: Combining Persistent Characteristic Portfolios

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Terry Burnham

We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in US equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size, a very persistent... View Details

Keywords: Risk Anomaly; Beta; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Factor Investing

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