Publications

January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
Background Note

Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner

Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

2007
Working Paper

The Ethical Mirage: A Temporal Explanation as to Why We Aren't as Ethical as We Think We Are

By: Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Kristina A. Diekmann, Kimberly A. Wade-Benzoni and Max H. Bazerman

This paper explores the biased perceptions that people hold of their own ethicality. We argue that the temporal trichotomy of prediction, action and evaluation is central to these misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Prejudice and Bias

01 Sep 2017
News

Is Private Equity Blockchain’s Killer App?

Review and Deloitte provide insight on how industries and companies could use blockchain tech to their best advantage. To learn more about the forecasted growth of blockchain, take a look at the Statista database within the eBaker alumni... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

Article

State Activism and the Hidden Incentives Behind Bank Acquisitions

By: Christopher Marquis, Doug Guthrie and Juan Almandoz

A number of studies have shown that, as a result of the ambiguity of U.S. legal mandates, organizations have considerable latitude in how they comply with regulations. In this paper, we address how the different agendas of the federal and state governments increase... View Details

Keywords: Organizations; Opportunities; Government Legislation; Acquisition; Forecasting and Prediction; Banks and Banking; Motivation and Incentives; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Management Practices and Processes; Research; United States

Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition

October 2007
Article

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information

10 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 10

trading volume, and more dispersion in analyst forecasts following the calls. Further, the capital market's response to linguistic complexity is limited to firms for which there is greater demand for English-language conference calls. Our... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

February 2004
Case

Bradman and Tendulkar, LLC

By: Ananth Raman and Vishal Gaur

An investment firm is trying to project inventory turns for Radio Shack, a chain of consumer electronics stores. The investment firm has access to public financial data but not to internal operational metrics. It needs to project inventory turns because inventory... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Demand and Consumers; Distribution Channels; Mathematical Methods; Valuation

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

January 2010
Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition

11 Dec 2012
First Look

First Look: Dec. 11

experience higher future growth in return-on-assets (ROA) with analysts failing to fully reflect this information in their earnings forecasts. Return prediction, growth in ROA, and analyst forecast errors are concentrated among firms with... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

17 Mar 2021
Research & Ideas

Beyond Pajamas: Sizing Up the Pandemic Shopper

When working professionals were shifting to home offices a year ago as COVID-19 was spreading, comedians and pundits predicted that people would no longer need bras and pants that aren’t stretchy. Instead customers would make room for pajamas and athleisure wear. Only... View Details

Keywords: by Ayelet Israeli, Eva Ascarza, and Laura Castrillo; Retail

20 Mar 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, March 20, 2018

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=54214 forthcoming Operations Research Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., David Simchi-Levi, and He... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

September 2021 (Revised December 2021)
Case

Spire, the CubeSat Revolution, and the Government as a Space Data Customer

By: Matthew Weinzierl, Mehak Sarang and Brendan L. Rosseau

This case outlines the rise of Spire Global, a young space company using CubeSats to provide weather data and weather prediction services. In addition to tracing the evolution of a space startup from novel idea to publicly-traded company, the case also examines the... View Details

Keywords: Space; Government Contracting; Remote Sensing; Satellites; Business Startups; Public Sector; Cost vs Benefits; Competition; Weather; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Sep 2017
News

Read All About It: Journalism Can Be Profitable

companies. Figuring out how we coexist in a way that’s mutually beneficial is going to be one of the key questions moving forward. When do you forecast the last printed edition of the New York Times rolling off the presses? —Graham... View Details

Keywords: April White; New York Times; newspapers; Google; Wirecutter; social media; Facebook; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information

09 Jan 2014
News

Tapping into Opportunity

the world: growing demand and limited supply. According to US research, the world's demand for fresh and pure water is forecast to exceed supply by 50 percent by 2025. Other studies have found that, within a generation, one in three... View Details

Keywords: Constantine von Hoffman; Business and Environment Initiative; Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services; Professional Services

May 1986 (Revised February 1991)
Case

Wilson Lumber Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The Wilson Lumber Co. is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth and low profitability. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed, and assess the attractiveness of the... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Sales; Financial Strategy