Publications

SSRN

August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
Case

Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States

By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Larrain, Carlos Vilches and Sarah Jeong

On May 26, 2020, Latam Airlines became the largest airline in the world to be driven to bankruptcy by COVID-19. With a complex debt structure and international investor composition, the company decided to file for bankruptcy protection in the United States, which... View Details

Keywords: Airlines; Pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Air Transportation; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Capital Markets; Strategy; Latin America; Chile; United States

August 2020 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Luckin Coffee (A): Caffeine-fueled Growth?

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Karen Elterman

This case describes the founding of Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee in 2017 and its path to surpassing Starbucks as the largest coffee chain in China (by number of stores) in 2019. Unlike Starbucks stores, which were designed to be welcoming “third places” for... View Details

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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2020
Working Paper

Best Ideas

By: Miguel Antón, Randolph B. Cohen and Christopher Polk

We ﬁnd that the stocks in which active mutual fund or hedge fund managers display the most conviction towards ex-ante, their “Best ideas,” outperform the market, as well as the other stocks in those managers’ portfolios, by approximately 2.8 to 4.5 percent per year,... View Details

Keywords: Mutual Funds; Managerial Skill; Market Efficiency; Investment Funds; Management; Investment Portfolio; Decision Making

June 2020 (Revised October 2020)
Case

Muddy Waters vs. eHealth: The Debate of a 'Lifetime'

By: Jonas Heese and Cristo Liautaud

In May 2020, an analyst was assessing eHealth’s performance. eHealth was an online / tele-sales broker of health insurance products. The stock had recently hit all-time highs, closing at a peak of $146 on March 4, 2020. But now, May 4, 2020, eHealth traded at $103. The... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Health; Insurance; Online Technology; Insurance Industry

May 2020 (Revised November 2021)
Supplement

Valuing Peloton

By: E. Scott Mayfield

Peloton Interactive, a well-known unicorn in the connected fitness space, had gone public with a market capitalization of over $8.0 billion. In the weeks following its public debut, Peloton’s stock price fell by over 25%. Taylor Knox, a stock analyst and enthusiastic... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Disruptive Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Price; Valuation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

May 2020 (Revised October 2021)
Case

Valuing Peloton

By: E. Scott Mayfield

Peloton Interactive, a well-known venture-capital-backed unicorn in the connected fitness space, recently had gone public with a market capitalization of over $8.0 billion. However, in the weeks following its public debut, Peloton’s stock price had fallen by over 25%.... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Public Equity; Initial Public Offering; Disruptive Innovation; Business Strategy; Valuation; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States

May 2020 (Revised August 2021)
Case

Playing the Field: Competing Bids for Anadarko Petroleum Corp

By: E. Scott Mayfield, Daniel Green and Benjamin C. Esty

On April 8, 2019, Occidental’s CEO Vicki Hollub made a private offer to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corporation for $72 in cash and stock. Anadarko's CEO Al Walker said he would consider the offer, yet three days later, on April 11, he signed a merger agreement with Chevron... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Bids and Bidding; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits

May 2020
Teaching Note

Kraft Heinz: The $8 Billion Brand Write-Down

By: Jill Avery

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 519-076. On Friday, February 22, 2019, following an unexpected and disappointing earnings report, The Kraft Heinz Company’s stock price fell 27%, wiping out $16 billion in market value. CEO Bernardo Hees had announced that the company had... View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

May–June 2020
Article

Interfirm Ties Between Ventures and Limited Partners of Venture Capital Funds: Performance Effects in Financial Markets

By: Umit Ozmel, M. Deniz Yavuz, Timothy E. Trombley and Ranjay Gulati

We argue that strong indirect ties are conducive to the transfer of private information, which provides an advantage in identifying profitable investment opportunities. In our context, a strong indirect tie is generated between an investor and a focal firm if the... View Details

Keywords: Interfirm Ties; Social Networks; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance

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May 2020
Article

The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets

By: Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev and Josh Lerner

This paper explores the creation and evolution of new stock exchanges around the world geared towards entrepreneurial companies, known as second-tier exchanges. Using hand-collected novel data, we document the proliferation of these new stock exchanges that were... View Details

Keywords: Stock Exchanges; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Initial Public Offering; Capital; Entrepreneurial Finance

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April 2020 (Revised April 2023)
Case

TransDigm in 2017: The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning?

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

TransDigm was a highly acquisitive company that manufactured a wide range of highly engineered aerospace parts for both military and commercial customers. Over the ten years ending in 2016, its stock price had increased ten times, and both EBITDA and revenues had grown... View Details

2020
Working Paper

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

February 2020 (Revised April 2021)
Case

StockX: The Stock Market of Things

By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley

Founded in 2015 by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, and Greg Schwartz, StockX was an online platform where users could buy and sell unworn luxury and limited-edition sneakers. Sneaker resale prices often fluctuated over time based on supply and demand, creating a robust... View Details

February 2020 (Revised April 2021)
Supplement

StockX: The Stock Market of Things (Data Set)

By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley

January 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Supplement

MoviePass: The 'Get Big Fast' Strategy

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

In August 2017, MoviePass dramatically lowered its subscription price from $50 per month to just $10 for up to one movie per day. The idea was to rapidly scale the business to the point where they could generate incremental revenue streams form related businesses... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang

We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment; United States

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