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- All HBS Web (342)
- Faculty Publications (118)
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
Datar, Srikant, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Siyu Zhang. "Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-113, December 2020.
- July 2022
- Article
What Do I Make of the Rest of My Life? Global and Quotidian Life Construal across the Retirement Transition
By: Jeff Steiner and Teresa M. Amabile
Retirement means relinquishing the daily structure that work provides and the career-dependent meanings that it offers life narratives. The retirement transition can therefore involve contemplating both how to spend newly-freed daily time and the implications of... View Details
Keywords: Retirement Transition; Life Narrative; Construal Level Theory; Global Construal; Quotidian Construal; Meanings Of Work And Retirement; Retirement; Transition; Perspective
Steiner, Jeff, and Teresa M. Amabile. "What Do I Make of the Rest of My Life? Global and Quotidian Life Construal across the Retirement Transition." Art. 104137. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 171 (July 2022).
- September 2018
- Article
Discretionary Task Ordering: Queue Management in Radiological Services
By: Maria Ibanez, Jonathan R. Clark, Robert S. Huckman and Bradley R. Staats
Work-scheduling research typically prescribes task sequences implemented by managers. Yet employees often have discretion to deviate from their prescribed sequence. Using data from 2.4 million radiological diagnoses, we find that doctors prioritize similar tasks... View Details
Keywords: Discretion; Scheduling; Queue; Healthcare; Learning; Experience; Decentralization; Operations; Service Operations; Service Delivery; Performance; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Efficiency; Performance Improvement; Performance Productivity; Decisions; Time Management; Cost vs Benefits; Health Industry
Ibanez, Maria, Jonathan R. Clark, Robert S. Huckman, and Bradley R. Staats. "Discretionary Task Ordering: Queue Management in Radiological Services." Management Science 64, no. 9 (September 2018): 4389–4407. (Working paper available here. Winner of the 2017 Best Paper Competition of the POMS College of Healthcare Operations Management. Featured in Forbes, Quartz, and Inc.)
- 2016
- Working Paper
Meet the Oligarchs: Business Legitimacy, State Capacity and Taxation
By: Rafael Di Tella, Juan Dubra and Alejandro Lagomarsino
We analyze the role of people’s beliefs about the rich in the determination of public policy in the context of a randomized online survey experiment. A question we study is the desirability of government-private sector meetings, a variable we argue is connected to... View Details
Keywords: Business Legitimacy; State Capacity; Meetings; Taxes; Top 1%; Regulation; Prejudice and Bias; Values and Beliefs; Taxation; Business and Government Relations
Di Tella, Rafael, Juan Dubra, and Alejandro Lagomarsino. "Meet the Oligarchs: Business Legitimacy, State Capacity and Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-046, December 2016.
- Forthcoming
- Article
When Should Public Programs Be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program
By: Alexander W. Bartik, Zoë Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton and Adi Sunderam
What happens when public resources are allocated by private companies whose objectives may be
imperfectly aligned with policy goals? We study this question in the context of the Paycheck
Protection Program (PPP), which relied on private banks to disburse aid to small... View Details
Keywords: Paycheck Protection Program; Targeting; Impact; Entrepreneurship; Health Pandemics; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Outcome or Result; United States
Bartik, Alexander W., Zoë Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton, and Adi Sunderam. "When Should Public Programs Be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program." Review of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
- 2023
- Working Paper
When Should Public Programs Be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program
By: Alexander Bartik, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton and Adi Sunderam
What happens when public resources are allocated by private companies whose objectives may be
imperfectly aligned with policy goals? We study this question in the context of the Paycheck
Protection Program (PPP), which relied on private banks to disburse aid to small... View Details
Keywords: Paycheck Protection Program; Targeting; Impact; Entrepreneurship; Health Pandemics; Small Business; Financing and Loans; Outcome or Result; United States
Bartik, Alexander, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher Stanton, and Adi Sunderam. "When Should Public Programs Be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-021, August 2020. (Revised July 2023. Accepted at The Review of Economics and Statistics.)
- 2025
- Working Paper
Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
As firms increasingly rely on customer data for personalization, concerns over privacy and regulatory compliance have grown. Local Differential Privacy (LDP) offers strong individual-level protection by injecting noise into data before collection. While... View Details
Keywords: Targeted Intervention; Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation; Differential Privacy; Honest Estimation; Post-processing; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Enhancing Treatment Effect Prediction on Privacy-Protected Data: An Honest Post-Processing Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-034, December 2023. (Revised March 2025.)
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
- March 2020
- Article
Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data
By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Natesh S. Pillai and Donald B. Rubin
Models for analyzing multivariate data sets with missing values require strong, often assessable, assumptions. The most common of these is that the mechanism that created the missing data is ignorable—a twofold assumption dependent on the mode of inference. The first... View Details
Keywords: Missing Data; Diagnostic Tools; Sensitivity Analysis; Hypothesis Testing; Missing At Random; Row Exchangeability; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
Bojinov, Iavor I., Natesh S. Pillai, and Donald B. Rubin. "Diagnosing Missing Always at Random in Multivariate Data." Biometrika 107, no. 1 (March 2020): 246–253.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
- 28 Jul 2008
- Research & Ideas
Making the Decision to Franchise (or not)
customer-facing operating environment affects organizational design choices such as control systems, incentives, performance measurement, and ownership structures," explains Campbell. "Even firms that have very standardized business View Details
- 28 Jul 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Disagreement about the Team’s Status Hierarchy: An Insidious Obstacle to Coordination and Performance
Keywords: by Heidi K. Gardner
- December 2023
- Article
When Should the Off-Grid Sun Shine at Night? Optimum Renewable Generation and Energy Storage Investments
By: Christian Kaps, Simone Marinesi and Serguei Netessine
Globally, 1.5 billion people live off the grid, their only access to electricity often limited to operationally-expensive fossil fuel generators. Solar power has risen as a sustainable and less costly option, but its generation is variable during the day and... View Details
Kaps, Christian, Simone Marinesi, and Serguei Netessine. "When Should the Off-Grid Sun Shine at Night? Optimum Renewable Generation and Energy Storage Investments." Management Science 69, no. 12 (December 2023): 7633–7650.
- December 2022
- Case
Mission Produce in 2022
By: Forest Reinhardt, Jose B. Alvarez and Natalie Kindred
Founded by CEO Steve Barnard in 1983, California-based Mission Produce was a leading supplier of Hass avocados with a global sourcing, marketing, and distribution network and $892 million in 2021 sales. Barnard had been influential in the global avocado trade’s... View Details
Keywords: Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; California; Peru; Guatemala; Colombia; Mexico; Chile
Reinhardt, Forest, Jose B. Alvarez, and Natalie Kindred. "Mission Produce in 2022." Harvard Business School Case 723-026, December 2022.
- July–August 2017
- Article
Why Outlet Stores Exist: Averting Cannibalization in Product Line Extensions
By: Donald Ngwe
Outlet stores are a large and growing component of many firms' retailing strategies, particularly in the fashion industry. Outlet stores offer attractive prices in locations far from central shopping districts. The main perspectives on why outlet stores exist can be... View Details
Keywords: Fashion; Industrial Organization; Outlet Stores; Price Discrimination; Retail; Channel Management; Luxury; Product Marketing; Price; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry
Ngwe, Donald. "Why Outlet Stores Exist: Averting Cannibalization in Product Line Extensions." Marketing Science 36, no. 4 (July–August 2017): 523–541.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Residential Battery Storage - Reshaping The Way We Do Electricity
By: Christian Kaps and Serguei Netessine
In this paper, we aim to understand when private households invest in behind-the-meter battery storage next to rooftop solar and how those batteries impact households, the electricity market, and emissions. We answer three main research questions: 1) When do customers... View Details
Keywords: Solar Power; Energy Storage; Technology And Innovation Management; Energy; Energy Policy; Renewable Energy; Technological Innovation; Innovation and Management; Energy Industry
Kaps, Christian, and Serguei Netessine. "Residential Battery Storage - Reshaping the Way We Do Electricity." Working Paper, February 2025.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets
De Simone, Lisa, Peiyi Jin, and Daniel Rabetti. "Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending." Working Paper, February 2025.
- 2024
- Working Paper
When Batteries Meet Hydrogen: Dual-Storage Investments for Load-Shifting Purposes
By: Christian Kaps and Simone Marinesi
Power systems account for nearly 40% of global emissions. As the world tries to reduce emissions by increasing renewable penetration, storage technologies are playing an increasingly important role in matching variable renewable supply with demand. Batteries have... View Details
Keywords: Environmental Sustainability; Renewable Energy; Transition; Utilities Industry; Battery Industry
Kaps, Christian, and Simone Marinesi. "When Batteries Meet Hydrogen: Dual-Storage Investments for Load-Shifting Purposes." Working Paper, October 2024.