Publications

SSRN

September 2019 (Revised June 2020)
Case

Othellonia: Growing a Mobile Game

By: Eva Ascarza, Tomomichi Amano and Sunil Gupta

In the summer of 2019, Yu Sasaki, Head of the Game Division of DeNA, a Japanese mobile gaming company, is evaluating various growth strategies for its recent game Othellonia. Sasaki needs to decide if he should focus on customer acquisition, retention, or monetization. View Details

Keywords: Targeting; Retention/churn; Freemium; Monetization; Customer Relationship Management; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing; Customers; Marketing Strategy; Retention; Acquisition; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Japan

Educators

Article

Use of Crowd Innovation to Develop an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solution for Radiation Therapy Targeting

By: Raymond H. Mak, Michael G. Endres, Jin Hyun Paik, Rinat A. Sergeev, Hugo Aerts, Christopher L. Williams, Karim R. Lakhani and Eva C. Guinan

Importance: Radiation therapy (RT) is a critical cancer treatment, but the existing radiation oncologist work force does not meet growing global demand. One key physician task in RT planning involves tumor segmentation for targeting, which requires substantial... View Details

Keywords: Crowdsourcing; AI Algorithms; Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; AI and Machine Learning

2020
Working Paper

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Eva Ascarza

The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details

Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry

SSRN

March 2018
Article

In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions

By: Eva Ascarza, Scott A. Neslin, Oded Netzer, Zachery Anderson, Peter S. Fader, Sunil Gupta, Bruce Hardie, Aurelie Lemmens, Barak Libai, David T. Neal, Foster Provost and Rom Schrift

In today’s turbulent business environment, customer retention presents a significant challenge for many service companies. Academics have generated a large body of research that addresses part of that challenge—with a particular focus on predicting customer churn.... View Details

Keywords: Customer Retention; Churn; Customer Relationship Management; Measurement and Metrics

February 2018
Article

Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.

By: Eva Ascarza

Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models... View Details

Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management

January–February 2018
Article

Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye

By: Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Bruce G.S. Hardie

We investigate the increasingly common business setting in which companies face the possibility of both observed and unobserved customer attrition (i.e., “overt” and “silent” churn) in the same pool of customers. This is the case for many online-based services where... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Retention; Attrition; Customer Base Analysis; Hidden Markov Models; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior

Article

A Field Experiment on Search Costs and the Formation of Scientific Collaborations

By: Kevin Boudreau, Tom Brady, Ina Ganguli, Patrick Gaule, Eva C. Guinan, Anthony Hollenberg and Karim R. Lakhani

We present the results of a field experiment conducted at Harvard Medical School to understand the extent to which search costs affect matching among scientific collaborators. We generated exogenous variation in search costs for pairs of potential collaborators by... View Details

Keywords: Search Costs; Cost; Marketplace Matching; Groups and Teams; Science; Collaborative Innovation and Invention

Article

Beyond the Target Customer: Social Effects in CRM Campaigns

By: Eva Ascarza, Peter Ebbes, Oded Netzer and Matthew Danielson

Customer relationship management (CRM) campaigns have traditionally focused on maximizing the profitability of the targeted customers. The authors demonstrate that in business settings characterized by network externalities, a CRM campaign that is aimed at changing the... View Details

Keywords: Social Effects; Field Experiment; Mobile; Customer Relationship Management; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior

2017
Chapter

Marketing Models for the Customer-Centric Firm

By: Eva Ascarza, Peter S. Fader and Bruce G.S. Hardie

A customer-centric firm takes the view that there are three key drivers of (organic) growth and overall profitability: Customer acquisition, customer retention, and customer development (i.e., increasing the value of each existing customer (per unit of time) while they... View Details

Keywords: Customer Value and Value Chain; Customer Focus and Relationships

May 2017
Other Article

Stepwise Distributed Open Innovation Contests for Software Development: Acceleration of Genome-Wide Association Analysis

By: Andrew Hill, Po-Ru Loh, Ragu B. Bharadwaj, Pascal Pons, Jingbo Shang, Eva C. Guinan, Karim R. Lakhani, Iain Kilty and Scott Jelinsky

BACKGROUND: The association of differing genotypes with disease-related phenotypic traits offers great potential to both help identify new therapeutic targets and support stratification of patients who would gain the greatest benefit from specific drug classes.... View Details

Keywords: Crowdsourcing; Genome-wide Association Study; Logistic Regression; Open Innovation; PLINK; Collaborative Innovation and Invention

November 2016 (Revised December 2016)
Module Note

Strategy Execution Module 8: Linking Performance to Markets

By: Robert Simons

This module reading shows how to link profit plans and other performance measurement systems to both internal and external markets. Starting with the transfer of goods and services within a firm, the module discusses the different methods of designing transfer pricing... View Details

Keywords: Management Control Systems; Implementing Strategy; Execution; Transfer Pricing; Activity Based Costing; Return On Investment; Residual Income; EVA; Strategy; Cost Accounting; Activity Based Costing and Management; Markets; Investment Return

October 2016
Article

Looking Across and Looking Beyond the Knowledge Frontier: Intellectual Distance and Resource Allocation in Science

By: Kevin J. Boudreau, Eva Guinan, Karim R. Lakhani and Christoph Riedl

Selecting among alternative innovative projects is a core management task in all innovating organizations. In this paper, we focus on the evaluation of frontier scientific research projects. We argue that the "intellectual distance" between the knowledge embodied in... View Details

Keywords: Knowledge; Innovation; Novelty; Evaluation; Resource Allocation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Innovation and Management; Science-Based Business; Experience and Expertise

SSRN

August 2016 (Revised June 2018)
Teaching Note

VMD Medical Imaging Center

By: Susanna Gallani and Eva Labro

VMD Medical Imaging Center addresses a number of issues related to the role of costing systems in organizations and the challenges impacting their design and maintenance as the organization grows and develops over time. This teaching note begins by offering detailed... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Cost Management; Management Systems

August 2016
Case

VMD Medical Imaging Center

By: Susanna Gallani and Eva Labro

VMD Medical Imaging Center, a local independent provider of medical imaging services, is facing some important challenges. Despite efficiency improvements and cost cutting initiatives carried out over the past few years, their profitability is shrinking; their prices... View Details

Keywords: Costing; Death Spiral; Transfer Pricing; Activity Based Costing and Management; Competitive Strategy; Medical Specialties; Health Industry

Educators

June 2016 (Revised February 2017)
Case

The Role of Real Estate in Endowment Portfolios: The Case of Christ Church, Oxford

By: David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, Arthur I Segel and Eva Steiner

The case centers on Christ Church's Treasurer, James Lawrie, who is contemplating his options for investing a portion of the College's endowment in real estate. Approximately 1/3 of the total $690 million endowment was allocated towards real estate, much higher than... View Details

Keywords: Real Estate; Endowment Management; Endowments; United Kingdom; Oxford; Portfolio Allocation; Higher Education; Investment Portfolio; Property; Corporate Finance; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom

Educators

May 2016 (Revised November 2022)
Teaching Note

RegionFly: Cutting Costs in the Airline Industry

By: Susanna Gallani and Eva Labro

Teaching Note for HBS No. 116-047. View Details