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  • 18 Aug 2015
  • Working Paper Summaries

Political Identity and Trust

Keywords: by Pablo Hernandez & Dylan Minor
  • November 2016
  • Article

Stereotypes

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present a model of stereotypes based on Kahneman and Tversky's representativeness heuristic. A decision maker assesses a target group by overweighting its representative types, which we formally define to be the types that occur more frequently in that group than in... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias
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  • 24 Feb 2020
  • Working Paper Summaries

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

Keywords: by Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay, and Hanbin Yang
  • 04 Jun 2018
  • What Do You Think?

Are There Conditions Under Which Directors Should Consider Hiring a CEO Fired Elsewhere for Inappropriate Behavior?

track5 How Does a Board Introduce to the Organization a CEO Fired Elsewhere for Inappropriate Behavior? The question of conditions under which a board might hire a CEO fired elsewhere for inappropriate behavior, the subject of this month’s column, produced cogent... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • Research Summary

The Power of Paradox: Some Recent Developments in Interactive Epistemology

This survey describes a central paradox of game theory, viz. the Paradox of Backward Induction (BI). The paradox is that the BI outcome is often said to follow from basic game-theoretic principles--specifically, from the assumption that the players are rational. Yet,... View Details
  • 2018
  • Book

A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility

By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A... View Details
Keywords: Financial Fragility; Economic Risk; Investor Behavior; Behavioral Economics; Financial Crisis; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Values and Beliefs; United States
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  • Forthcoming
  • Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin
Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details
Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit
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  • 2015
  • Working Paper

Understanding Conformity: An Experimental Investigation

By: B. Douglas Bernheim and Christine L Exley
Some theories of conformity hold that social equilibrium either standardizes inferences or promotes a shared understanding of conventions and norms among individuals with fixed heterogeneous preferences (belief mechanisms). Others depict tastes as fluid and hence... View Details
Keywords: Conformity; Norms; Image Motivation; Prosocial Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Standards
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  • January 2015
  • Article

X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model

By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which... View Details
Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing; Returns; Investing; Asset Pricing; Investment Return
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  • 2019
  • Working Paper

Birds of a Feather ... Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen
This paper analyzes how shared beliefs and preferences (or values) cause the emergence of social norms; why people may enforce norms that go against their own beliefs and preferences/values; and how this may cause a disconnect to develop between the... View Details
Keywords: Culture; Norms; Values and Beliefs; Organizational Culture; Strategy
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  • July 2008
  • Article

Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra
We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective... View Details
Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economic Systems; Values and Beliefs; Law Enforcement; Mathematical Methods; Personal Characteristics; United States
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  • Article

Birds of a Feather...Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen
Does culture eat strategy for breakfast? This paper investigates the interactions among corporate culture, norms, and strategy, in order to better understand this issue and related questions. It first shows, through microfoundations, how the forces that drive toward... View Details
Keywords: Culture; Norms; Organizational Culture; Strategy; Values and Beliefs
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  • May 2021
  • Article

Is No News (Perceived as) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure

By: Ginger Zhe Jin, Michael Luca and Daniel Martin
This paper uses laboratory experiments to directly test a central prediction of disclosure theory: that strategic forces can lead those who possess private information to voluntarily provide it. In a simple sender-receiver game, we find that senders disclose favorable... View Details
Keywords: Communication Games; Disclosure; Unraveling; Experiments; Information; Product; Quality; Communication; Consumer Behavior
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  • 2012
  • Working Paper

An Outside-Inside Evolution in Gender and Professional Work

By: Lakshmi Ramarajan, Kathleen McGinn and Deborah Kolb
We study the process by which a professional service firm reshaped its activities and beliefs over nearly two decades as it adapted to shifts in the social discourse regarding gender and work. Analyzing archival data from the firm over eighteen years and... View Details
Keywords: Professional Service Firms; Social Institutions; Organizational Learning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Employment; Gender; Society; Service Industry
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  • January 2022
  • Article

Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Lukas Hensel, Marc Witte, Stefano Caria, Thiemo Fetzer, Stefano Fiorin, Friedrich M. Goetz, Margarita Gomez, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Gordon T. Kraft-Todd, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher Roth, Erez Yoeli and Jon M. Jachimowicz
We conducted a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 respondents between late March and early April 2020 to study beliefs and attitudes towards citizens' and governments' responses at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most respondents reported... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Government Regulation; Social Norms; Health Pandemics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Behavior; Perception; Global Range; Surveys
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  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur

By: Susan Cohen and Rembrand Koning
Bayesian entrepreneurship starts from the premise that entrepreneurs’ beliefs guide their theorizing, experimentation, and choices (Agrawal et al., n.d.). Since each entrepreneur has unique beliefs based on their own set of past experiences, cognitive ability, and... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Decision Choices and Conditions
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details
Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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  • 2011
  • Working Paper

Free to Punish? The American Dream and the Harsh Treatment of Criminals

By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra
We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the U.S. over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the "Reagan revolution" in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about... View Details
Keywords: Crime and Corruption; Economy; Moral Sensibility; Mathematical Methods; Opportunities; Behavior; United States
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  • 02 Jul 2014
  • What Do You Think?

Are Today’s Business Heroes Challenging Our Ideas About Leadership?

Summing Up Is There Really a Formula for Great Leadership? The overall sense of responses to our question for the month is that the leadership stars of today—Jobs, Bezos, Gates, etc.,—should not cause us to change our time-honored ideas about great leadership. Among... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Stories, Statistics and Memory

By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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